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非对称性增温对农业生态系统影响研究进展
Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Global Warming and Its Effects on Agriculture Ecosystems
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摘要: 该文概述了北半球和我国气候变暖中增温的非对称性特征:北半球气候变暖存在明显的季节差异和昼夜不同步性, 大部分地区冬、春季升温高于夏、秋季, 日最低气温升幅是日最高气温升幅的2~3倍; 近50年我国近地表气温升高主要是最低气温明显上升的结果, 日最低气温升幅是日最气高温升幅的2~3倍, 与北半球基本一致; 升温最显著的季节为冬季和春季。在此基础上概述了非对称性增温对农业生态系统的影响, 论述了非对称性增温对农作物物候和农作物产量的影响, 得出最低气温升高促使整个生长季延长, 促使早春作物物候期提前, 但最低气温和最高气温对不同作物的物候以及同一作物的不同发育阶段影响不同。现有研究多采用模型或统计的方法研究气候变暖对作物生长的影响, 认为温度升高对作物有“强迫成熟”效应; 而现有的最低气温升高和最高气温升高对作物生长影响的研究结果并不一致。非对称性增温对农作物影响的实验研究极少, 且缺乏对模型模拟结果的实验验证。Abstract: Some recent major research findings on trends of daily maximum and minim um temperature in global warming and warming experiments in agro-ecosystems are summarized briefly.Investigating the daily mean maximum and minimum temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere landmass, it's found that the rising rate of the minim um temperature is 2—3 times as big as that of the maximum temperature during the period of 1950—1993. It indicates that the daily mean maximum and minim um temperatures rising are asymmetry. The largest increase in temperature occurs in wintertime and springtime, implying that temperature increase is asymmetry in seasons too. Similar trends are observed for the past 52 years (1951—2002) in China.The agro-ecosystems response to temperature increasing in asymmetric trends is introduced in detail. As for the rise of the minimum temperature, almost all researches confirm that the growing season has been extended and the spring crops phenological phases have become earlier than before. The minimum temperature and the maximum temperature have different effects on different crops' phenological calendar and on one crop's different phenological phases. Most of the existing reports about agro-ecosystems response to temperature increase concentrate on crops model simulation and statistic description. And most of the results show that increasing temperature has made the growth period shorter and the ripe date earlier. As for these causes, some studies imply that it could cut down the crops yields.But others consider that increasing minimum temperature will lessen the danger of crop chill injury, and will improve the crops yields. Some studies also suggest that the temperature rising, especially the daily maximum temperature rising has nonlinear effects on corn yields. Thus the roles of minimum temperature and maximum temperature to crops grow and yields are still uncertain. The temperature also plays an important role in controlling the soil CO2 releases. Most of experiments about temperature rising are conducted in OTC (open-top chamber) or greenhouse, where the maximum temperature is increased much more than the minimum temperature (the minimum temperature are almost unchanged comparing with blank). Therefore, all the OTC and greenhouse experiments are mainly set to simulate the effects of the maximum temperature rising on crops. A recently reported method designed to simulate minimum temperature rising is also reviewed. Minimum temperature rising experiments have been carried out on grassland and forest ecosystems, but the experiments in agro-ecosystems are seldom reported.
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表 1 北半球近50年平均最高、最低气温变化速率 (单位: ℃/ 100 a)
Table 1 Changing trends of maximum and minimum temperature variation in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 50 years (unit : ℃/100 a)
表 2 中国近50年和季节平均最高、最低气温变化幅度速率 (单位: ℃/ 10 a)
Table 2 Changing trends of maximum and minimum temperature variation in China during the past 50 years (unit : ℃/ 10 a)
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