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北京夏季空气质量的气象指数预报
A PLAM Index Forecast Method for Air Quality of Beijing in Summer
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摘要: 该文提出一种参数化预报方法，制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000-2007年7-9月北京市观象台大气成分 (PM10) 逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息，分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染过程 (PM10浓度>150μg/m3) 关系密切的敏感气象要素和变量。引入适应度函数分级方法，计算北京周边不同观测站可能形成污染向北京输送的权重，建立北京夏季空气质量气象条件参数PLAM (parameters linking air-quality and meteorology) 预报模型。PLAM指数给出北京局地污染气象条件的客观定量诊断和预测，并可指示周边地区有利 (或不利) 于污染向北京输送的强度和方位。夏季“静稳型”气象条件参数化PLAM方法为北京奥运气象保障任务实时提供预报产品，分别用PM10及可吸入颗粒物指数 (API) 对2008年7-8月PLAM逐日预报进行检验，相关系数达到0.001显著性水平。
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关键词:
- 空气质量PLAM指数;
- 静稳气象条件参数化;
- 北京及周边输送影响;
- 2008北京奥运服务
Abstract: For a regional air pollution event in a synoptic scale, such as typical stabilized summer weather over North China, a key scientific issue is to identify the possible impacts of pollutants on mega-cities like Beijing and on the zones between the cities and their adjacent areas, from emissions by human activities, e.g., industrial and agricultural emissions as well as traffic exhaustions in the so-called capital economic belt, covering Beijing, Tianjin and a number of surrounding provinces, including Hebei and Shanxi provinces. For this special target as well as the assignment of the air quality predicting service in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, a parameterized method is developed to predict the air quality in Beijing and its surrounding areas in summer.On the basis of the relationship between summer daily PM10 in Beijing Observatory and key meteorological data for July to September during 2000-2007, analyzing the sensitive meteorological parameters which are relevant closely with high concentration of PM10, an index method of PLAM (parameter linking air-quality and meteorology) is given, which is derived to forecast the stabilized weather conditions of North China for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. For different PLAM value there is a weight given according to the wind direction of the site pointing what extent to Beijing, as well as its wind speed. So the PLAM index can also predict quantitatively the weather conditions in surrounding areas of Beijing, showing whether or not the meteorological conditions in these areas are favorable for pollutants transport to Beijing. It is found that the poor air quality days with elevated PM10( > 150μg/m3) in summer are associated with higher PLAM values, featuring high temperature, high humidity, lower wind velocity and higher stability.A satisfying result of PLAM index forecast timely for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is achieved.PLAM parameter forecast method provided valuable 48 hours services with an interval of 12 hours for the day of opening ceremony and 24-72 hours prediction of air-quality for subsequent events during the whole Beijing Olympic Games. It is also found that the good air qualities are associated with the traffic control measures taken by the municipal government in reducing the vehicle exhaustions during Beijing Olympic Games.The forecast verifying results of PLAM index are highly correlated with daily real time PM10 data collected by Beijing Weather Observatory, indicating that the PLAM index has a remarkable effect. -
图 1 2008年6月24日 (a) 和25日 (b) PLAM指数24h预报
Fig. 1 24-hour forecast of PLAM index on 24 (a) and 25 (b) Jun 2008
图 2 2008年8月8日08:00 850 hPa高空形势分析 (单位:dagpm)
Fig. 2 Situation of 850 hPa at 08:00 8 August 2008 (unit:dagpm)
图 3 2008年8月5日PLAM指数48h预报 (a) 及7日PLAM指数12h预报 (b)
Fig. 3 48-hour forecast of PLAM index on 5 Aug 2008(a) and 12-hour forecast of PLAM index on 7 Aug 2008 (b)
图 4 2008年7月1日-8月31日北京市观象台PM10观测值、北京API公报及PLAM指数24h预报值的逐日分布
Fig. 4 Distribution of PM10 observations in Beijng Weather Observatory, API in Beijing and 24-hour forecast of PLAM index
图 5 2008年7月1日-8月31日PLAM 24 h预报结果与北京市观象台PM10实测值相关分析
Fig. 5 Correlation between 24-hour PLAM forecast results and PM10 in Beijing Weather Observatory during 1 July to 31 August 2008
表 1 2000-2007年7-9月PM10与气象要素相关分析
Table 1 Correlation of PM10 to meteoroligocal elemeats during July-September from 2000 to 2007
表 2 空气污染气象条件PLAM指数分级和意义
Table 2 Grades and meaning of PLAM index
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