近50年我国西部地区气象要素的变化特征
Characteristics of the Climate Change in West China in Recent 50 Years
-
摘要: 利用1951—2000年全国194站地面观测资料和高空观测资料,对近50年我国西部地区的气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明:从20世纪70年代开始,我国西部地区年平均气温呈上升趋势,其中河套区和新疆区气温上升最为明显,其次为青藏高原区和河西区,西南区气温增幅最不明显,地表温度变化与气温的变化基本同步,但地温变化要比气温变化更加剧烈一些。西南区的地温从70年代中期开始回升,但始终未达到50年代初期的水平,因此从线性变化上表现为下降趋势。西部地区除了河套区外,其他4个区的年平均降水量均增加,增加最明显的是新疆区和青藏高原区。我国整个西部地区年平均总云量和低云量均呈线性减少趋势,减少最明显的是西南区和河套区。在辐射变化上,我国西部总辐射呈减少趋势,青藏高原区减少最多;西南区的散射辐射呈增加趋势,其他4个区减少,其中新疆区和青藏高原区散射辐射减幅明显。散射辐射的大小与天空中云量和气溶胶含量的多少成正比,西南区散射辐射呈增加趋势,而总云量和低云量呈下降趋势,可以推测是气溶胶含量增加导致了散射辐射的增加。Abstract: Using the surface observational data and upper air data from 1951 to 2000 at 194 stations in China, the inter annual and inter decadal characteristics of climate in West China are analyzed. The results show that in the middle of 1970s, an evident climate sudden change happens to yearly average surface temperature, air temperature, precipitation, total cloud amount, low cloud amount and solar radiation. There is a rising trend of the annual mean temperature in West China. The most evident warming occurs in Hetao and Xinjiang regions; in Tibet and Hexi regions warming is also evident, and in Southwest China the warming trend is less evident. The surface temperature changes in the same trend of the air temperature, and its variation is more significant. Particularly, the surface temperature in West China is getting higher since the middle of the 1970s, but it doesn't reach the level of that in 1950s, therefore shows a dropping trend in linear from 1951 to 2000. Annual mean precipitation takes on a rising trend all the regions in West China except for Hetao region, and the largest increase of rainfall occurs in Xinjiang and Tibet regions. Both the annual mean and season mean rainfall increases significantly in Xinjiang and Tibet regions, and the annual mean precipitation in 1990s increases 50% than that in 1950s. The precipitation in Xinjiang region keeps increasing in every season particularly in winter. Actually the precipitation is nearly zero in winter before 1978(except 1950s), and it begins to grow after that. The total cloudiness and the low cloudiness decrease linearly in West China in recent 50 years. The decreasing trends of annual mean low cloudiness are observed in all the areas, with the most remarkable decreasing rate in Hetao region and Southwest China, especially in Hetao region where the rate is -1.7%/10 a. In Xinjiang region the cloudiness hasn't decreased much. The total radiation drops over the west regions, particularly in Tibet region. The change of solar direct radiation in the whole areas in West China is similar with that of total radiation. The southwest region experiences an increasing trend in solar diffuse radiation, while a dropping trend in the other four areas and the most evident decreasing occurs in Xinjiang and Tibet regions. The cloud amount and aerosol consistency have a close connection with solar diffuse radiation. In Southwest China, the solar diffuse radiation decreases as the cloud amount increases, so it's guessed that the decreasing of solar diffuse radiation is caused by the increasing of aerosol consistency.
-
Key words:
- West China;
- climate change;
- observational data
-
表 1 1951—2000年河套区年代际气象要素变化
Table 1 Decade variations of the meteorological elements in Hetao region during 1951—2000
表 2 1951—2000年河西区年代际气象要素变化
Table 2 Decade variations of the meteorological elements in Hexi region during1951—2000
-
[1] IPCC,Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001:1-881. [2] 白爱娟,翟盘茂.中国近百年气候变化的自然原因讨论.气象科学,2007,27(5):585-590. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200705018.htm [3] 姜大膀,王会军,郎咸梅.全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测.地球物理学报,2004,47(4):590-596. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX200404006.htm [4] 康兴成.青藏高原地区近40年来气候变化的特征.冰川冻土,1996,18(增刊):281-288. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT1996S1033.htm [5] 王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析.气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB200402009.htm [6] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征.气象学报,2005,63(6):943-956. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB200506010.htm [7] Zhai Panmao,Zhang Xuebin,Wan Hui,Trends in to-tal precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China,Journal of Climate,2005,18(1):1096-1108. [8] 刘毅,何金海,王黎娟.近40 年重庆地区夏季降水的气候特征.气象科学,2005,25(5):490-498. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200505006.htm [9] 陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮,等.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制.气象学报,2004,62(5):634-646. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB200405010.htm [10] 杨明,徐海明,李维亮,等.近40年东亚季风变化特征及其与海陆温差关系.应用气象学报,2008,19(5):522-530. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20080502&flag=1 [11] 刘燕,王谦谦,程正泉.我国西南地区夏季降水异常的区域特征.南京气象学院学报,2002,25(1):105-110. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX200201015.htm [12] 朱文琴,陈隆勋,周自江.现代青藏高原气候变化的几个特征.中国科学(D 辑),2001,31(增刊):327-334. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JDXK2001S1049.htm [13] 马振锋,彭骏,高文良,等.近40年西南地区的气候变化事实.高原气象,2006,25(4):633-642. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200604009.htm [14] 牛涛,刘洪利,宋燕,等.青藏高原气候有暖干到暖湿时期的年代际变化特征研究.应用气象学报,2005,16(6):763-771. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20050699&flag=1 [15] 任朝霞,杨达源.西北干旱区近50年气候变化特征与趋势.地球科学与环境学报,2007,29(1):99-102. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGX200701020.htm [16] 南庆红,杨舵,杨青.应用EOF 方法分析新疆降水变化特征.中国沙漠,2003,23(5):554-559. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGSS200305015.htm [17] 戴新刚,任宜勇,陈洪武.近50年新疆温度降水配置演变及其尺度特征.气象学报,2007,65(6):1003-1010. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB200706017.htm [18] 边多,杜军.近40年西藏“一江两河"流域气候变化特征.应用气象学报,2006,17(2):170-175. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20060229&flag=1 [19] 王鹏祥,何金海,郑有飞,等.近44年来我国西北地区干湿特征分析.应用气象学报,2007,18(6):769-775. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=200706118&flag=1