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陕西秋季降水变化特征
Variation Characteristics of Autumn Precipitation in Shaanxi Province
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摘要: 利用1960—2009年陕西74个台站逐月降水资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，采用Mann Kendall和REOF等方法分析了近50年陕西秋季降水变化时空分布及环流特征。研究表明：近50年来, 陕西9月降水对整个秋季降水具有决定性作用，呈现出“北少南多”和“北多南少”的空间分布特征；当西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西偏北，纬向环流指数偏弱，海平面气压场为“西低东高”的形势，850 hPa风场上西北地区东部为西太平洋副热带高压外围的东南气流控制时，陕西秋季降水空间分布多呈现“北多南少”型。Abstract: Based on monthly rainfall data of 74 stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1960 to 2009, the variation characteristics of autumn rainfall over Shaanxi Province and the main factors influence on autumn rainfall are analyzed by the methods of Mann Kendall and REOF with a horizontal resolution of 2.5°×2.5°. It shows that the rainfall of September has decisive effect on the total autumn rainfall over Shaanxi Province. The September rainfall occupies 57.3% of the total autumn rainfall from 1960 to 2009, and from 2000 to 2009 it occupies 61.5%. The September rainfall can be divided into 2 types by spatial distribution: One is fewer in the north and more in the south, the other is more in the north and fewer in the south. The first type shows no obvious decadal variations, but the second type varies obviously in these decades as it occurs a lot from 1960 to 1985, less frequently from 1986 to 2000, and then more frequently again from 2001 to 2009. Statistics on the variation of atmospheric circulation and the second type rainfall distribution indicates that when subtropical high over western Pacific (SHWP) is more northwest (northeast and southwest) to its regular position, there are 12 years (25 years) that the September rainfall over the northern Shaanxi Province is more (less) in the past 50 years. When the zonal circulation index (ZCI) is weaker (stronger), there are 14 years (16 years) that the September rainfall over the northern Shaanxi Province is more (less) in the past 50 years. The correlations between the rainfall, the SHWP and ZCI are more obvious since the 1980s. Meanwhile the sea level pressure is low in the west and high in the east in the years when September rainfall over the northern Shaanxi Province is more, because there are more low weather systems from the northwest Xinjiang. So the east part of northwest China is controlled by the subtropical high over west Pacific and the southeast winds provides sufficient water vapor.
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图 1 1960—2009年陕西北部9月降水量变化曲线
Fig. 1 Change of September precipitation in Northern Shaanxi from 1960 to 2009
图 2 1960—2009年9月陕西北部降水量标准化距平与纬向环流指数标准化距平比较
Fig. 2 The comparison between standard departure values of in Northern Shaanxi September rainfall and that of zonal circulation Index from 1960 to 2009
图 3 1960—2009年9月陕西北部降水量与西太平洋副热带高压北界 (a) 和西太平洋副热带高压西伸脊点 (b) 标准化距平
Fig. 3 Relationships between normalized anomalies of precipitation in Northern Shaanxi with those of northern borderline (a) and westward ridge point (b) of subtropical high over west Pacific in September during 1960—2009
图 4 陕西北部9月降水偏多和偏少年份合成的海平面气压差值图 (单位:hPa)(a) 和850hPa风场差值图 (b)(阴影区域为通过0.05的显著性检验)
Fig. 4 The departures of seasurface pressure (unit: hPa) (a) and 850 hPa wind field (b) of the composited years in terms of the maximin and minimin of the precipitation in September over Northern Shaanxi (level exceeds 0.05 shown as shaded)
表 1 陕西北部9月降水量与纬向环流指数和西太平洋副热带高压位置关系
Table 1 The interdecadal changes of precipitation in September in Northern Shaanxi, zonal circulation index and the location of subtropical high over west Pacific
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