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自动临近预报系统及其在北京奥运期间的应用
Introduction of Auto nowcasting System for Convective Storm and Its Performance in Beijing Olympics Meteorological Service
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摘要: 该文介绍了对流风暴自动临近预报系统（BJ-ANC）及其在2008年北京奥运会期间的应用。BJ-ANC是在技术引进基础上，通过本地化改进和拓展研发而形成的适合于在京津冀地区使用的对流风暴自动临近预报系统。BJ-ANC系统通过对风暴进行分析，利用临近预报算法和模糊逻辑集成技术，生成反映风暴发生、发展和消亡的分析及预报产品。系统考虑了京津冀地区边界层辐合线及地形与风暴生消发展之间的密切关系。通过对2008年实时预报结果的检验表明：系统对风暴单体在1 h内的外推预报与实际观测的风暴单体中心的距离偏差较小；系统的1 h定量降水预报和自动站的降水观测接近；系统对风暴回波的总体预报性能明显优于持续性外推方法。通过对2008年奥运期间对流风暴个例的实际应用分析表明：系统对风暴的临近预报具有指导意义，边界层辐合线对风暴的局地新生和快速演变具有明显的正面预报效果。另外，系统反演得到的对流层低层热动力三维特征提供了风暴生消、发展预报的重要判据。Abstract: The auto nowcasting system for convective storm (BJ-ANC) is an expert system that has been improved and further developed to many key algorithms and modules other than they are just introduced from US. The skill of the system is focused on nowcasting convective storm in Beijing and its vicinity. Key improvements have been made to the algorithms including quality control of CINRAD radar data, diagnosis and analysis of local observations from radars, satellites, AWSs, rawinsondes and meso NWP results from a WRF based rapid update cycling model, identification, analysis and tracking of storm cells, grid tracking and extrapolation of radar echo, rapid updating assimilation of radar data, quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF), etc. The forecast factors produced by the above algorithms are closely related with initiation, evolution and decay of convective storm in general. These algorithms are integrated by a fuzzy logic algorithm under non dimensional modes with different weighting coefficients in the system and nowcasting products are generated. Based on many theoretical and experimental results, the relationship and conceptual model of boundary layer convergence line and initiation and evolution of storm have been imported into the system for nowcasting localized initiation and rapid evolution of storm. BJ-ANC system runs in real-time mode during 2008 summer time. The system performance for nowcasting initiation and rapid evolution of storm is improved after convergence line is adopted by interactive human entry function. Verification of storm cell extrapolation and 1 hour QPF in Beijing area and its vicinity during 2008 summer is performed using the B08FDP real time verification system. The results indicate extrapolation of storm cell in 1 hour is significant and the forecast deviation is small. The 1 hour QPF from the system is comparable with rainfall observation from AWSs, denoting the QPF products can be used for supporting nowcasting operation of convective rainstorm. The storm reflectivity nowcasts from the system have been demonstrated much more significant than those from persistence method. Storm case analyses indicate these products from the system are conductive for storm nowcasting operation and boundary layer convergence line is extremely helpful. In addition, retrieval of thermo dynamical fields can clearly indicate three dimensional structures of wind, convergence and temperature at low layer and further help forecasters make decisions on storm initiation and evolution nowcasts.
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Key words:
- convective storm;
- nowcasting;
- Beijing Olympics
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图 1 BJ-ANC系统的业务运行流程及生成的主要业务产品
Fig. 1 Operational running flow and main products of storm analysis and nowcasting from BJ-ANC
图 2 1h定量降水预报Q-Q图检验 (a)2008年7月11日-9月16日在500km×500km范围内的BJ-ANC系统1hQPF检验，(b)2009年8月1日-9月20日B08FDP国际检验小组针对各参加系统在北京地区的1hQPF检验
Fig. 2 Q-Q verification of 1-hour QPF by BJ-ANC from 11 July to 16 September 2008 in 500 km by 500 km domain (a) and each B08FDP system from 1 August to 20 September 2008 in Beijing are amade by B08FDP verification group (b)
图 3 2008年8月l日一9月l6日BJ-ANC系统对35dBZ以上风暴单体外推预报的检验
Fig. 3 Verification of BJ-ANC extrapolation on storm cells above 35 dBZ during the period from l August to l6 September 2008
图 4 BJ-ANC系统和持续性外推方法对北京及其周边地区在2008年5月26日一9月19日发生的42次对流风暴事件的回波预报统计检验平均值
Fig. 4 Verification average of reflectivity nowcasts of 42 storm events from BJ-ANC and persistence method in Beijing area and its vicinity from 26 May to 19 September 2008
图 5 2008年8月14日局地突发强对流风暴在04 : 29(a) 和05:29(b) 北京S波段雷达0. 4°仰角的反射率因子观测，以及04: 29 BJ-ANC风暴发展趋势1 h预报 () 和风暴回波1 h预报 (d)
(图 5c，5d中绿色实线为人工输入的边界层辐合线，绿色虚线为其位置的1 h外推预报)
Fig. 5 Reflectivity at 0.4° elevation from Beijing S-band radar at 04 : 29 (a) and 05 : 29 (b), and 1-hour forecasts of storm evolution trend (c) and storm reflectivity (d) at 04: 29 14 August 2008
(solid green lines denote human-entered location of boundary layer convergence line and dotted green lines denote 1-hour extrapolation tn Fig. 5c and Fig. 5d)
图 6 2008年8月14日04:29 VDRAS反演的低层热动力变量场 (a) 562.5 m高度垂直速度和风矢量，(b)187.5 m高度辐合、辐散和风矢量，(c)187.5 m高度扰动温度和风矢量，(d)187.5 m高度扰动温度空间梯度和风矢量
(粗黑线为雷达观测的35 dBZ以上的强回波)
Fig. 6 VDRAS-based thermo-dynamical retrievals at 04:29 14 August 2008 (a) 562. 5-meter level vertical velocity and wind vectors, (b) 187. 5-meter level convergence/divergence and wind vectors, (c) 187. 5-meter level perturbation temperature and wind vectors, (d) 187. 5-meter level perturbation temperature gradient and wind vectors
(solid black lines denote observed radar reflectivity above 35 dBZ)
表 1 针对BJ-ANC系统的主要本地化改进和拓展研发内
Table 1 Improved and developed techniques and algorithms for BJ-ANC
表 2 2008年夏季BJ-ANC系统实时接入资料
Table 2 Ingested real-time data by BJ-ANC in 2008 summer
表 3 BJ-ANC系统在2008年7月11日一9月16日不同阈值lh QPF的统计检验
Table 3 Verification on 1-hour QPF from BJ-ANC period from 11 July to 16 September 2008
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