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NCC_CGCM产品对长江中下游夏季降水预报的释用
Downscaling Interpretation of NCC_CGCM Products for the Summer Precipitation over the Mid lower Reaches of the Yangtze
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摘要: 通过对1983—2002年国家气候中心NCC_CGCM季节预报模式的2月初始场的5个预测场 (500 hPa高度场，200 hPa经向风、纬向风场，850 hPa经向风、纬向风场) 与NCEP实况场的相关检验，指出模式预测与实况有一定差距，但也存在预报效果好的区域，其中预报效果最好的是200 hPa和850 hPa纬向风场，正相关达到95%信度的点数最多；500 hPa高度场正相关达到95%信度的点数最少；利用模式预报效果好的区域的预测值，对2003—2007年长江中下游区域夏季降水指数进行释用，预报准确率达到80%；对比模式在该地区的降水预报以及仅用模式高度场的解释预报发现，用挑选有用信息后的预报效果更好。该方法在全国其他14个区夏季降水的释用中，江南区和内蒙古区预报准确率也可达到80%。
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关键词:
- NCC_CGCM模式产品;
- 夏季降水;
- 释用
Abstract: With February initial fields, NCC_CGCM model is run and the products (height field at 500 hPa, zonal wind and meridional wind fields at 200 hPa and 850 hPa) are compared with NCEP observation during 1983—2002 to study their relations. Although the differences between the observations and NCC_CGCM model predictions are obvious, there are still some areas where the correlation index is high to 0.6, such as the western equatorial Pacific at u200, the northern equatorial Pacific at v200, the central equatorial Pacific at u850, the central North Pacific at v850, some area around New Zealand at H500, and so on. The total amount of grids where the positive correlations reach or exceed 95% statistical confidence is counted. For u200 and u850 there are more correlated grids, and correlated grids amount for H500 is the smallest. An experiment is done using the summer precipitation index in the mid lower reaches of the Yangtze which is one of the 15 areas divided by climate characteristic in China. Some grids data are chosen where the correlations (between the precipitation index and NCEP, between the precipitation index and model products) are both positive, reaching or exceeding 95% confidence at the same time. With the chosen data from NCC_CGCM, the regional precipitation index is predicted by EOF downscaling method from 2003 to 2007, getting an accuracy of 80%. The precipitation forecast result got by downscaling with chosen data from the model proves better than those with the model and EOF downscaling with only H500 product of CGCM for the mid lower reaches of the Yangtze. The same downscaling is also run on the rest 14 areas from 2003 to 2007 but the accuracies are different. In Jiangnan and Inner Mongolia, the accuracies reach 80% too.-
Key words:
- NCC_CGCM model products;
- summer precipitation;
- downscaling
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图 1 1983-2002年夏季NCC_CGCM5个预报场与同期NCEP实况场相关的空间分布
（阴影部分为达到90%信度的区域）
Fig. 1 The correlation distribution between NCC_CGCM and the observation of NCEP in summer at 5 fields from 1983 to 2002
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 90% level)
图 2 1983-2002年长江中下游夏季降水指数与夏季500hPa高度场的相关分布（阴影部分为达到90%信度的区域）
（a）NCEP实况场，（b）NCC_CGCM模式预报场
Fig. 2 The correlation distribution between summer precipitation index over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and 500 hPa height field from 1983 to 2002(the shaded denotes passing the test of 90% level)
(a) NCEP data, (b) NCC_CGCM outputs
表 1 NCC_CGCM模式1983—2002年6—8月预报场与同期NCEP实况场相关点数统计
Table 1 The correlation of NCC_CGCM outputs to NCEP observation during June-August from 1983 to 2002
表 2 1983—2002年夏季长江中下游降水指数与预报场､NCEP实况场相关同号且超过95%信度的格点统计及分布区域
Table 2 Statistics and distribution of correlations between summer precipitation index of the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and NCC_CGCM, NCEP with passing the test of 95% level from 1983 to 2002
表 3 用NCC_CGCM输出的不同要素解释2003—2007年长江中下游夏季降水指数距平预报
Table 3 The downscaling of summer precipitation index anomaly over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze using NCC_CGCM different fields from 2003 to 2007
表 4 2003—2007年夏季长江中下游降水距平预报与实况对比
Table 4 The observation and forecast with different methods of summer precipitation index anomaly over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze from 2003 to 2007
表 5 2003—2007年全国15个区域夏季降水指数距平综合预测及实况
Table 5 The observation and downscaling of summer precipitation index anomaly over 15 regions from 2003 to 2007
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