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NCEP/CFS模式对东亚夏季延伸预报的检验评估
Assessing the Extended Range Forecast Error of NCEP/CFS in the Summer of East Asia
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摘要: 利用NCEP的气候预报系统（Climate Forecast System, CFS）所提供的1981—2004年历史回报试验结果，检验和评估了该系统对夏季东亚地区大气环流的预报技巧和系统误差；在此基础上通过提取模式预报和观测的10~20 d及30~60 d低频振荡分量，重点对我国南方3次典型持续性暴雨过程的预报技巧进行检验和诊断分析。结果表明：CFS系统对东亚整体大气环流逐日预报的可靠时效为5 d左右，60°N以北的对流层中高层高度场预报系统性偏低，而在40°~60°N则为系统性偏高。系统性误差随预报时间的延长而增加，但10 d以上预报的系统性误差大小和空间分布逐渐趋于稳定；CFS系统对低频分量的延伸期预报技巧好于对其整体大气环流的预报技巧，并且在典型持续性暴雨过程中，CFS系统对影响强降水过程的主要环流系统低频振荡特征有一定预报能力。Abstract: Regional and persistent heavy rain in the southern parts of China can lead to severe flooding, and abnormality of key circulation system in East Asia is the most important inducement for the abnormal precipitation in target area. Furthermore, the low frequency oscillation (LFO) has special impact on the extended range forecast of general circulation. By use of fully coupled retrospective forecasts covering a 24 year period (1981—2004) provided by NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), the 1 to 30 days predictive skill and errors between forecast and observations (NCEP/DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) Ⅱ Reanalysis) are diagnosed and the predictive skill of three typical cases of persistent heavy rain, in the Yangtze Huaihe River Valley, the southern parts to the Yangtze River and South China are examined respectively. The influence of LFO on extended range forecast skill is revealed.The forecast skill of 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa heights is obtained, by calculating the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) between predicted and observed fields over a typical region of the East Asia during the summer. Based on the 24 year climatology, the ACC skill maintains greater than 0.6 at a lead time of less than 6 days, which is the average level of current numerical weather prediction models. The ACC drops rapidly with increasing lead time but when it comes to 10—19 days, the ACC is relatively stable and ranges from 0.05 to 0.15. The errors also keep stable at the lead time of more than 10 days with the predicted fields lower than the observations in areas north of 60°N and higher than the observations in areas between 40°N and 60°N.By use of 30—60 days component data which is obtained by Butterworth Band pass Filter, the forecast exhibits more skillful with the ACC to observed 30—60 days component data of about 0.15 at lead time of 15 days.From the typical cases, it's found that the low frequency precipitation with quasi two weeks and 30—60 days fluctuation is an important characteristic of the persistent heavy rain, and the CFS exhibits some useful extended range forecasts skill to the low frequency oscillations of major circulation system which is useful for estimating the main region and intensity of persistent heavy rain. This may provide valuable information for utilizing the numerical products and modeling extended range forecasts.
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Key words:
- CFS;
- retrospective forecasts;
- stable errors;
- diagnosis;
- low frequency oscillations
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图 1 1981-2004年平均的东亚地区夏季位势高度场逐日预报的距平相关系数
Fig. 1 Anomaly correlations between forecasts and observations of summer height in East Asia as a function of forecast time during 1981--2004
图 2 1981-2004年东亚地区500hPa位势高度场不同时效预报与观测的距平相关系数年际变化
Fig. 2 Changes of anomaly correlations between forecasts and observations of 500 hPa height in East Asia during1981-2004
图 3 1981-2004年平均的500hPa高度场15d预报与观测的距平相关系数空间分布
Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of ACC between 15 days forecasts and observations of 500 hPa height during 1981-2004
图 4 1981-2004年平均的500hPa高度场预报误差分布 (单位:dagpm)
Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of the difference between forecasts and observations of 500 hPa height during 1981-2004 (unit:dagpm)
图 5 带通滤波前后预报时效为10~20d的东亚夏季200hPa, 500hPa高度场及850hPa经向风场与观测的距平相关系数
Fig. 5 ACC of height at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and meridional wind at 850 hPa by 30-60 days band-pass filter, 10-20 days band-pass filter and unfiltered with the averaged ACC from 1981 to 2004
图 6 江淮、江南和华南地区6月1日-8月31日滤波前的日降水量距平和不同低频分量的时间序列曲线
Fig. 6 Time series of precipitation anomalies from 1 June to 31 August in Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley, the southern partstothe Yangtze River and South China
图 7 1991年6月21日-7月19日江淮暴雨前后主要环流系统指数的30~60d低频振荡分量时间变化曲线
Fig. 7 The 30-60 days LFO of three major indexes around the heavy rain process in Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley from 21 June to 19 July 1991
图 8 1998年6月9日-7月7日江南暴雨和2005年6月10日-7月8日华南暴雨关键系统环流指数30~60d低频分量的时间变化曲线
Fig. 8 The 30-60 days LFO of several major indexes for the heavy rain process in the southern parts to the Yangtze River from 9 June to 7 July in 1998 and the heavy rain process in South China from 10 June to 8 July in 2005
图 9 1998年6月9日-7月7日江南暴雨副热带高压脊线位置指数 (a) 和2005年6月10日-7月8日华南暴雨索马里越赤道气流指数 (b)10~20d低频振荡分量的时间变化曲线
Fig. 9 10-20 days LFO of the major weather systems (a) subtropical high ridge line index of the heavy rain process in the southern parts to the Yangtze River from 9 June to 7 July in1998, (b) Somalia cross-equatorial flow index of the heavy rain process in South China from10 June to 8 July in 2005
表 1 低频分量与总降水量时间序列的相关系数 (达到0.05显著性水平) 及其对总降水量的方差贡献
Table 1 Correlation coefficients (passing the test of 0.05 level) and variance contribution of daily precipitation LFO to the unfiltered
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