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热气候指数在人体舒适度预报中的适用性
Applicability of Universal Thermal Climate Index to Thermal Comfort Forecast
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摘要: 为进一步提高夏季舒适度预报质量，该文根据国际生物气象研究学会制定的体感指标计算软件和国内现行指标的计算方法，引进并修正了热气候指数 (UTCI)，根据对2009年8月21-25日在南京信息工程大学205名军训大学生开展的问卷调查资料，对比验证了国内外多种指标，结果表明：国内指标基本能够表征人体热感觉，但仍需进一步完善；热气候指数较其他体感指标能更好地表达人体实际热舒适度，结合天气数值预报结果和SolAlt模型预报的太阳辐射，非常适宜作为南京市人体舒适度的预报指标。热气候指数的建立，提高了南京市的公共气象服务质量。Abstract: The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13 ℃ per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years, and during 1995-2006 rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature since 1850 (IPCC AR4, 2007). Lots of researches denote that heat wave could lead to heat stoke and even death, so it has become a meteorological disaster that deserves attention from every government. In order to reduce the impact of heat wave on human health, lots of indices for thermal comfort forecast have been established both at home and abroad. However, atmospheric pressure and solar radiation are seldom recognized as factors influencing comfort, especially in China. In order to establish a Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) including all meteorological factors that influence thermal comfort and human comfort in summer, an extensive questionnaire survey concerning the comfortable conditions is conducted. The database consists of questionnaire filled by 205 students those are participating in military training from 06:00 to 20:00 outdoor from 21 to 25 August 2009. Thermal sensations are reported on a five point scale and extensive statistical treatment of the data is performed. A multivariate analysis scheme is developed to handle the bulk of the data and ensure the validity of the results. The weather parameters are observed by NUSIT Weather Station being 500 meters away from the investigation site. The study confirms a strong relationship between thermal comfort and microclimatic conditions, including solar radiation, air pressure, maximum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity, ranked by importance. Therefore, the influences of atmospheric pressure and solar radiation have to be considered when forecasting the thermal comfort. UTCI is improved and formulated according to the body feeling temperature index of International Society of Biometeorology and current formula at home. The relationships between thermal comfort according to questionnaire surveys and indices including single element, bivariate, three major elements and UTCI are established and compared based on the database of questionnaire survey. The results show that domestic indices needs improving. The forecast effect of new UTCI adding atmospheric pressure and solar radiation is better than other indices both at home and abroad. Above all, based on weather forecast numerical model and SolAlt solar radiation model, the improved UTCI is an applicable index of thermal comfort forecast in Nanjing and it will provide better public weather servic
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图 1 舒适度与主要气象参数之间相关系数 (n=749，均通过0.01的显著性检验)
Fig. 1 The correlation coefficients between thermal comfort and meteorological factors (n=749, passing the test of 0.01 level)
表 1 调查对象来源省份的人数及在南京滞留时长
Table 1 Frequency of interviewees from different provide with their staying time in Nanjing
表 2 问卷中选项对应的等级
Table 2 The option grade in questionnaire survey
表 3 调查站点的日最高气温、云量、相对湿度、气压和风速
Table 3 The datebase of maximum temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed
表 4 根据SolAlt模型和观测数据计算的太阳辐射和各指标值
Table 4 The solar radiation and indices calculated by SolAtt model and observed data
表 5 各指标与问卷调查所得的人体舒适度之间的相关系数
Table 5 The correlation coefficients between thermal com fort accor ding to questionnaire surveys and indices
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