设为首页
加入收藏
Physical Basis of Short-term Climate Prediction in China and Short-term Climate Objective Prediction Methods
-
摘要: 短期气候预测依据大气科学原理，运用气候动力学、统计学等手段，在研究气候异常成因的基础上对未来气候趋势进行预测。虽然目前我国短期气候预测的水平还不高，但短期气候预测是国家经济发展和防灾减灾的迫切需求，提高预测准确率是气象科研和业务人员的重要任务。该文从海洋、积雪等外强迫信号及大气环流大尺度变动等大气内部特性等角度概述了短期气候预测的物理基础，简要回顾了近60年来我国短期气候预测的发展历程，并介绍了作者近十几年来研制短期气候预测客观统计学及统计与动力学相结合预测模型的主要思路。Abstract: Short-term climate prediction means forecasting monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual climate trends in the future based on the principles of atmospheric science by using climate dynamics, statistics and other means. Although many researches on the short-term climate prediction have been implemented, the prediction capability is far from meeting the demands of the national economy development. A brief review of the progress in China has been made on the short-term climate prediction in recent 60 years. The physical basis of short-term climate prediction, including the external forcing and internal characteristics of the atmosphere is described. Several new short-term climate objective prediction methods are proposed and their applications to operational prediction are introduced.The ElñNio/La Niña phenomenon and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in winter are two important external forcing factors for short-term prediction in China. The large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, for example, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), Southern Oscillation (SO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), are also important physical foundation for short-term climate prediction. Since the 1990s, numerical climate models have made rapid progress, and statistical downscaling method is also an important way to improve the accuracy of short-term climate prediction. In recent years, role of inter-decadal variability in short-term climate prediction are also attracting great attentions.
-
Key words:
- short-term climate prediction;
- physical basis;
- prediction method
-
图 1 淮河流域不同气候时段海表温度年代际分量平均值的差值分布
(阴影部分表示差值超过0.05显著性水平) (a) 1943—1964年与1922—1942年，(b) 1965—1997年与1943—1964年
Fig. 1 Difference of SST interdecadal sector between different climate periods of summer precipitation over Huaihe River Valley
(shaded area denotes passing the test of 0.05 level) (a) 1943—1964 and 1922—1942, (b) 1965—1997 and 1943—1964
图 2 青藏高原冬季积雪偏多年份 (a) 和偏少年份 (b) 我国夏季降水距平百分率合成分布
Fig. 2 Percentage anomalies of summer precipitation in China during rich snow years (a) and deficient snow years (b) in Tibetan Plateau
图 3 我国东部夏季降水年代际变化的时间-纬度剖面图
Fig. 3 The time-latitude cross section of interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the east of China
图 4 长江中下游夏季降水与AO的30年滑动相关系数
Fig. 4 The 30-year running correlation coefficients between summer precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and AO
-
[1] Lorenz E N. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus, 1982, 34: 505-513. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v34i6.10836 [2] 周秀骥.大气随机动力学与可预报性.气象学报, 2005, 63(6):806-811. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB200505023.htm [3] 章基嘉.中长期天气预报基础.北京:气象出版社, 1994:237-344. [4] 王绍武.气候系统引论.北京:气象出版社, 1994: 16-19. [5] 丁一汇, 李清泉, 李维京, 等.中国业务动力季节预报的进展.气象学报, 2004, 62(5):599-612. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB200405007.htm [6] 李建平, 刘屹岷, 周天军, 等.世界气候研究计划2005—2015战略框架.北京:气象出版社, 2006. [7] 王绍武.现代气候学研究进展.北京:气象出版社, 2001. [8] 王绍武. 短期气候预测研究的历史及现状//王绍武. 气候预测研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1996: 1-17. [9] Rasmusson E M, Wallace J M. Meteorogical aspects of El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Science, 1983, 222:1195-1202. doi: 10.1126/science.222.4629.1195 [10] Yulaeva K, Wallace J M. The signature of ENSO in global temperature and precipitation field derived from the microwave sounding unit. J Climate, 1994, 7: 1719-1736. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1719:TSOEIG>2.0.CO;2 [11] Lau K M, Shen P J. Annual cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation and Southern Oscillation in global precipitation.J Geophys Res, 1988, 93: 10975-10988. doi: 10.1029/JD093iD09p10975 [12] Nitta T. Convective activities in the tropical westem Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteor Soc Japan, 1987, 64: 373-390. https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj1965/65/3/65_3_373/_article [13] Trenberth K E, Hurrell J W. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn, 1994, 9:303-319. doi: 10.1007/BF00204745 [14] Wei Fengying, Zhang Ting. Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background. Science China (Earth Sciences), 2010, 53(2): 301-316. doi: 10.1007/s11430-009-0151-7 [15] 朱益民, 杨修群.太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系.气象学报, 2003, 61(6): 641-654. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2003.065 [16] 杨修群, 朱益民, 谢倩, 等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展.大气科学, 2004, 28(6): 979-992. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200406014.htm [17] 朱玉祥, 丁一汇.青藏高原积雪对气候影响的研究进展和问题.气象科技, 2007, 35(1): 1-8. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKJ200701000.htm [18] 韦志刚, 罗四维, 董文杰, 等.青藏高原积雪资料分析及其与我国夏季降水的关系.应用气象学报, 1998, 9(增刊):39-46. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX8S1.005.htm [19] 陈乾金, 高波, 李维京, 等.青藏高原冬季积雪异常和长江中下游主汛期旱涝及其与环流关系的研究.气象学报, 2000, 38(5):582-595. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2000.060 [20] 张顺利, 陶诗言.青藏高原积雪对亚洲季风影响的诊断及数值模拟研究.大气科学, 2001, 25(3):372-390. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200103008.htm [21] Xie Y, Wei F, Chen G, et al. Analysis of the 2008 heavy snowfall over South China using GPS PWV measurements from the Tibetan Plateau. Annales Geophysicae, 2010, 28:1369-1376. doi: 10.5194/angeo-28-1369-2010 [22] Xu X, Lu C, Shi X, et al. World water tower: An atmospheric perspective. Geophys Res Lett, 2008, 35, doi:10.1029/2008gl035867. [23] 陈兴芳, 宋文玲.冬季高原积雪和欧亚积雪对我国夏季旱涝不同影响关系的环流特征分析.大气科学, 2000, 24(5):585-592. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200005001.htm [24] 张人禾, 武炳义, 赵平, 等.中国东部夏季气候20世纪80年代后期的年代际转型及其可能成因.气象学报, 2008, 66(5):697-706. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2008.064 [25] Slonosky V C, Mysak L A, Derome J. Linking Arctic sea-ice and atmospheric circulation anomalies on interannual and decadal timescales. Atmosphere Ocean, 1997, 35(3):333-366. doi: 10.1080/07055900.1997.9649596 [26] 武炳义, 黄荣辉, 高登义.冬季北极喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响.大气科学, 1999, 23(3):267-275. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199903001.htm [27] 王嘉, 郭欲福.北半球海冰强迫作用下大气可预报性研究.应用气象学报, 2004, 15(3):291-305. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20040338&flag=1 [28] Entin J, Robock A, Vinnikov K Y, et al. Temporal and spatial scales of observed soil moisture variations in the extratropics. J Geophys Res, 2000, 105: 11865-11877. doi: 10.1029/2000JD900051 [29] 左志燕, 张人禾.中国东部夏季降水与春季土壤湿度的联系.科学通报, 2007, 52(14):1722-1724. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0023-074x.2007.14.021 [30] 龚道溢, 王绍武.北大西洋 (NAO) 指数的比较及其年代际变率.大气科学, 2000, 24(2):187-192. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200002006.htm [31] 龚道溢, 王绍武.大气环流因子对北半球气温变化影响的研究.地理研究, 1999, 18(1):31-38. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLYJ901.004.htm [32] Han Xue, Wei Fengying, Tourre Y M, et al. Spatio-temporal variability of Northern Hemipheric sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation over the Mid-to-low Reaches of the Yangtze River. Adv Atmos Sci, 2008, 25(3):458-466. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0458-x [33] Thompson D W J, Wallace J M. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett, 1998, 25: 1297-1300. doi: 10.1029/98GL00950 [34] Zhao N, Takahashi M. Zonally symmetric normal modes associated with AO/NAM under a seasonally varying background of climatology. Tellus, 2006, 58(5): 575-583. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00204.x [35] 魏凤英, 宋巧云, 韩雪.近百年北半球海平面气压分布结构及其对长江中下游梅雨异常的影响.自然科学进展, 2006, 16(2):215-222. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKJZ200602015.htm [36] 龚道溢, 王绍武, 朱锦红.北极涛动对我国冬季日气温方差的显著影响.科学通报, 2004, 49(5):487-492. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB200405016.htm [37] 魏凤英.气候变暖背景下我国寒潮灾害的变化特征.自然科学进展, 2008, 18(3): 289-295. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKJZ200803007.htm [38] 魏凤英.长江中下游夏季降水异常变化与若干强迫因子的关系.大气科学, 2006, 30(2):202-211. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200602002.htm [39] 李崇银, 顾微, 潘静.梅雨与北极涛动及平流层环流异常的关联.地球物理学报, 2008, 51(6):1632-1641. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX200806003.htm [40] 高辉, 薛峰, 王会军.南极涛动年际变化对江淮梅雨的影响及预报意义.科学通报, 2003, 48(增刊):87-92. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB2003S2015.htm [41] 范可, 王会军.南极涛动异常与2006年我国东部夏季降水形势预测.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(3):383-384. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20060365&flag=1 [42] 赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场.北京:气象出版社, 1999: 86-94. [43] 魏凤英, 张京江.华北地区干旱的气候背景及其前兆强信号.气象学报, 2003, 61(3):354-363. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2003.034 [44] Wei Fengying. An integrative estimation model of summer rainfall-band pattern in China. Progress in Natural Science, 2007, 17(3):280-288. doi: 10.1080/10020070612331343259 [45] Reed R J, Campbell W J, Rasmussen L A, et al. Evidence of the downward-propagating annual wind reversal in the equatorial stratosphere. J Geophys Res, 1961, 66(6): 813-818. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1961JGR....66..813R [46] 郑彬, 谷德军, 林爱兰, 等.平流层准两年变化对南海夏季风影响机制的探讨.中国科学 (D辑), 2007, 37(11):1547-1555. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JDXK200711013.htm [47] Li C, Sun S, Mu M. Origin of the TBO-interaction between anomalous East-Asian winter monsoon and ENSO cycle. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001, 18(4): 554-566. doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0044-y [48] Chang C P, Li T. A theory for the tropical tropospheric biennial oscillation. J Atmos Sci, 2000, 57(14): 2209-2224. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<2209:ATFTTT>2.0.CO;2 [49] 黄嘉佑.准两年周期振荡在我国降水中的表现.大气科学, 1988, 12(3): 267-273. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK198803005.htm [50] Krishnamurti T N, Bhalme H. Oscillations of a monsoon system. J Atmos Sci, 1970, 33:1937-1954. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469%281976%29033<1937%3AOOAMSP>2.0.CO%3B2 [51] 毛江玉, 吴国雄.1991年江淮梅雨与副热带高压的低频振荡.气象学报, 2005, 63(5):762-770. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2005.073 [52] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (第2版).北京:气象出版社, 2007: 6-12. [53] 杨鉴初.运用气象要素历史演变的规律性作一年以上的长期预告.气象学报, 1953, 24:100-117. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1953.016 [54] 魏凤英.气候统计诊断与预测方法研究进展.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(6):736-742. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=200606122&flag=1 [55] 赵臻.分类逐步筛选相似预报.气象, 1978(1):7-8. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1978.01.006 [56] 张家诚, 赵臻, 许协江.统计预报中的组合因子方法.大气科学, 1978, 2(1):48-54. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK197801004.htm [57] 魏凤英, 曹鸿兴.建立长期预测模型的新方案及其应用.科学通报, 1990, 35(10):777-780. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB199010015.htm [58] 魏凤英.华北干旱的多时间尺度组合预测模型.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(5):583-592. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030573&flag=1 [59] 王绍武, 林本达.气候预测与模拟研究.北京:气象出版社, 1993:1-37. [60] Roads J O. Forecasts of time averages with a numerical weather prediction model. J Atmos Sci, 1986, 43: 871-892. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0871:FOTAWA>2.0.CO;2 [61] Zhang S Q, Li M C, Zhu Q W. Application of probability wave long-range seasonal prediction. ACTA Meteor Sinica, 1988, 2(3): 371-379. http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB198701013.htm [62] Zhang S Q, Li M C, Zhu Q W. Possibility to use schöradinger equation to describe large-scale probability waves and its application in seasonal prediction. ACTA Meteor Sinica, 1989, 3(1): 25-33. http://www.cqvip.com/QK/88418X/198901/3001392958.html [63] 黄嘉佑.统计动力分析与预报.北京:气象出版社, 1993: 34-36. [64] 李维京, 陈丽娟.动力延伸预报产品释用方法的研究.气象学报, 1999, 57(3):338-345. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1999.032 [65] 陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 等.降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(6):648-655. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030682&flag=1 [66] Zhu Congwen, Park Chung-Kyu, Lee Woo-Sung, et al. Statistical downscaling for multu-model ensemble prediction of summer monsoon rainfall in the Asia-Pacific region using geopotential height field. Adv Atmos Sci, 2008, 25(5): 867-884. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0867-x [67] 张邦林, 丑纪范.经验正交函数在数值气候模拟中的应用.中国科学 (B辑), 1991, 21(4):442-448. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JBXK199104013.htm [68] 任宏利, 张培群, 丑纪范, 等.中国夏季大尺度低频雨型及其转换模.科学通报, 2005, 24:2790-2799. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0023-074X.2005.24.019 [69] 丑纪范, 任宏利.数值天气预报——另类途径的必要性和可行性.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(2):240-244. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20060240&flag=1 [70] 曹鸿兴.大气运动的自忆方程.中国科学 (B辑), 1993, 23(1):104-112. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JBXK199301014.htm [71] 任宏利, 丑纪范.动力相似预报的策略和方法研究.中国科学 (B辑), 2007, 37(8):1101-1109. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10730-2006088472.htm [72] Wang Bin. Interdecadal changes in El Nino onset in the last four decades. J Climate, 1995, 8: 267-285. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0267:ICIENO>2.0.CO;2 [73] Harrell J W. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 1995, 269: 676-679. doi: 10.1126/science.269.5224.676 [74] Trenberth K E, Harrell J W. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the pacific. Climate Dyn, 1994, 9: 303-319. doi: 10.1007/BF00204745 [75] 韩雪, 魏凤英.中国东部夏季降水与东亚垂直环流结构及其预测试验.大气科学, 2010, 34(3):533-547. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201003008.htm [76] Wei Fengying, Xie Yu, Michae E Mann. Probabilistic trend of anomalous summer rainfall in Beijing: Role of interdecadal variability. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113, D20106, doi: 10.1029/2008JD010111. [77] 魏凤英, 张先恭.中国夏季降水趋势分布的客观预报方法.气候与环境研究, 1998, 3(3): 218-226. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH803.003.htm [78] 陈桂英, 赵振国.短期气候预测评估方法和业务初估.应用气象学报, 1998, 9(2):178-185. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19980225&flag=1 [79] 魏凤英.全国夏季降水区域动态权重集成预报试验.应用气象学报, 1999, 10(4), 401-409. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19990489&flag=1 [80] 周秀骥, 赵平, 刘舸.近千年亚洲-太平洋涛动指数与东亚夏季风变化.科学通报, 2009, 54:3144-3146. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB200920026.htm [81] 王绍武, 黄建斌.近千年中国东部夏季雨带位置的变化.气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2: 117-121. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.03.005 -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(6)
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 4781
- HTML全文浏览量: 1132
- PDF下载量: 3363
- 被引次数: 0
