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The Patterns of Anomalous Climate and Their Pre-circulation Signals in November
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摘要: 利用全国160站1951—2008年11月温度、降水资料和同期秋季NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa高度场再分析资料，分析了我国东部季风区11月暖湿、暖干、冷湿、冷干年同期环流特征，并对同期、前期环流特征进行了差异t检验。结果表明：暖型 (冷型) 同期环流对应乌拉尔山阻塞高压不明显 (明显)，欧亚中高纬度地区盛行纬向 (经向) 环流；干型 (湿型) 同期环流对应西太平洋副热带高压偏弱 (强)、偏东 (西)。差异t检验分布特征表明：在亚洲中高纬度地区，暖干、冷湿型 (暖湿、冷干型) 同期环流主要表现为南北 (东西) 气压场的差异；暖干、冷湿型的前期和同期环流特征分别具有EU (Eurasia) 和反EU遥相关距平结构，而暖湿、冷干型前期和同期环流特征分别具有反PNA (Pacific/North American) 和PNA遥相关距平结构。Abstract: Based on the stationery data of temperature and precipitation of 160 stations in China in November, the reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) of NCEP/NCAR, the four circulation patterns corresponding to the warm and wet, warm and dry, cold and wet, cold and dry in the monsoon regions over eastern China are analysed, and the previous and corresponding circulations are inspected with t-test method. The time series of positive station numbers about the temperature and precipitation are labeled as S1 and S2 respectively after removing long-term trend more than 9 years. Then the typical years according to the cold, warm, dry and wet patterns could be acquired by using the values of S1+S2 and S1-S2. In detail, the larger values of S1+S2 are defined as the warm and wet years, and the smaller values are defined as the cold and dry years. Meanwhile, the larger values of S1-S2 are represented as the warm and dry years, and the smaller values are represented as the cold and wet years. The results are as follows: The warm (cold) pattern takes on the inactive (active) blocking high over Ural Mountain and zonal (meridional) circulation prevails at middle and high latitudes. The dry (wet) type is corresponding to the weak (strong) and eastward (westward) of subtropical high in western North Pacific. The circulation difference of warm and dry pattern minus cold and wet pattern in t-test is in meridional direction, similar to the EU pattern. The circulation difference of warm and wet pattern minus cold and dry pattern in t-test is in zonal direction, similar to the anti-PNA pattern. The pentad running-mean of monthly circulation has significant differences for the warm and dry (cold and wet) type in the beginning time on 6, 11, 16 September and warm and wet (cold and dry) type in the beginning time on 11, 16 and 21 September which indicate that the previous circulation has significant implication for climate prediction. The characteristics of cold and wet (warm and dry) type are as below: On one hand, the GPH is high (low) at high latitude and low (high) at middle and low latitudes, and meanwhile AO is negative (positive), leading to low (high) temperature over northern China; on the other hand, the GPH is low (high) at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the active (inactive) southern branch trough induces the more (less) precipitation.
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Key words:
- cold and warm;
- dry and wet;
- circulation type;
- EU;
- PNA
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图 1 1955—2004年S2′与全国160站11月降水的相关系数 (a) 和S1′与全国160站11月温度的相关系数 (b)
(阴影区为信度超过95%的区域)
Fig. 1 The correlation of S2′ to precipitation of 160 stations in November (a) and S1′ to temperature of 160 stations in November (b) during 1955—2004 (the area passing the test of 95% level is shaded)
图 2 近50年来S1+S2(实线) 和S1-S2(虚线) 的时间演变序列
Fig. 2 The time series of S1+S2 (solid line) and S1-S2 (dashed line) in recent 50 years
图 3 暖干年平均 (a) 和冷湿年平均 (b) 的11月500 hPa高度距平场 (单位：gpm；阴影区为负值区)
Fig. 3 The mean geopotential height anomaly of warm and dry years (a), cold and wet years (b) at 500 hPa in November (unit: gpm; the negative is shaded)
图 4 暖湿年平均 (a) 和冷干年平均 (b) 的11月500 hPa高度距平场 (单位：gpm；阴影区为负值区)
Fig. 4 The mean geopotential height anomaly of warm and wet years (a), cold and dry years (b) at 500 hPa in November (unit: gpm; the negative is shaded)
图 5 11月500 hPa高度场的t检验值分布 (阴影区为信度超过90%的显著差异区)
(a) 暖干年平均与冷湿年平均偏差, (b) 暖湿年平均与冷干年平均偏差
Fig. 5 The t-test of geopotential height anomaly of warm and dry years to cold and wet years (a), warm and wet years to cold and dry years (b) at 500 hPa in November
(the area passing the test of 90% level is shaded)
图 6 不同时段暖干年平均与冷湿年平均的前期500 hPa高度场偏差t检验值分布
(阴影区为信度超过90%的显著差异区)
Fig. 6 The t-test of geopotential height anomaly of warm and dry years to cold and wet years at 500 hPa in different lead-time (the area passing the test of 90% level is shaded)
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