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The Basic Climatic Features of Stratospheric Circulation Transition in Northern Hemisphere
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摘要: 利用1948—2009年NCEP/NCAR逐日高度场和风场再分析资料探讨了平流层各主要层次上环流转型的年际、年代际时空演变特征。结果表明：北半球平流层冬季环流转为夏季环流的过程是高层环流转型早，低层环流转型晚，但在各层次上环流转型早晚存在着区域性差异。自新地岛到西伯利亚北部地区的环流转型最早，且该区域与北半球环流平均转型时间的年际以及年代际特征最相近。北半球平流层环流转型的气候平均时间早于东亚热带季风爆发时间，从而可能成为季风预测的前兆信号。分析还得到平流层各主要层次环流转型时间具有明显的年代际特征，环流转型时间呈现由偏晚到偏早、又从偏早到偏晚的变化特征，只是年代际转折年份在不同区域、不同层次存在差异。此外，平流层环流转型时间普遍存在准2年、准3~6年、准9~12年以及准21~24年的周期，可能与气候系统其他成员有密切联系。Abstract: The basic climatic features of stratospheric circulation in Northern Hemisphere demonstrate different forms in winter and summer. In winter, the cold cyclone system and westerly winds prevail in high latitudes, while in summer the situation is the opposite. In terms of inversion of geopotential height gradient and zonal wind direction, a transition date index (TDI) indicating the change dates from summer to winter circulations in the stratosphere in Northern Hemisphere is defined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data. Some statistic methods such as linear tendency, wavelet analysis, binomial coefficient smooth and Mann-Kendall are applied to analyze the inter-annual and inter-decadal features of the transition dates at all main levels in the stratosphere. Results indicate that in the stratosphere, with the height rising, the transition date becomes earlier and the summer circulation lasts longer. For instance, the earliest circulation transition in the stratosphere occurs at the height of 10 hPa and 20 hPa, and it shifts to 30 hPa in a short period. However, it takes longer for the transition to shift from 30 hPa to 50 hPa than that from 10 hPa to 30 hPa, which takes almost one month. The average onset date of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) is one of the earliest dates in Asia Summer Monsoon (ASM) system and it is much later than the transition dates in stratosphere. Therefore, TDI can be used as a pre-signal for monitoring and predicting ASM. Furthermore, there exists an obvious regional difference in the circulation transition, among which the transition dates at each level in Siberia is the earliest and that is relatively later in Bering Sea and Greenland. The inter-annual and inter-decadal features of the circulation transition dates in Northern Hemisphere and the aforementioned three different regions are quite apparent, turning from late to early and then to late again in the past 62 years. Particularly the circulation transition date in Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia shares some similarities in inter-annual and inter-decadal variations, for example, the time variation shows significant fluctuations, and both have a transition peak in 1975. The transition dates in Bering Sea and Greenland also have the similar features, for example, the time fluctuation is relatively small. Moreover, circulation transition dates vary with the height and region, but they all have a quasi-2-year, a quasi-3-to-6-year, a quasi-9-to-12-year or a quasi-21-to-24-year cycle which may have close connections with other members of the climate system.
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图 1 3月1日—6月30日10 hPa高度梯度的均方差分布 (单位：gpm)
Fig. 1 The mean square deviation of the geopotential height gradient from 1 March to 30 June at 10 hPa (unit: gpm)
图 2 10 hPa位势高度梯度 (单位：dagpm)(a) 以及纬向风 (单位：m·s-1)(b) 的时间-经度分布图
Fig. 2 Time-longitude evolution of geopotential height gradient (unit:dagpm)(a) and zonal wind (unit:m·s-1)(b) at 10 hPa
图 3 北半球平流层不同层次环流转型时间的逐年变化
Fig. 3 Annual transition dates at different levels in North Hemisphere
图 4 10 hPa不同区域环流转型时间的逐年变化
Fig. 4 Annual transition dates of different regions at 10 hPa
图 5 不同区域10 hPa环流转型时间的标准化距平 (带标记的实折线)、线性趋势 (点划线)、二阶多项式回归趋势 (虚线)、高斯九点平滑 (实折线)
(a) 北半球，(b) 西伯利亚区，(c) 白令海区，(d) 格陵兰区
Fig. 5 Standard deviation of annual transition dates at 10 hPa geopotential height of all regions (labeled solid line), the corresponding to linear trend (chain dotted line), second order polynomial regression line (dotted line), Gaussian 9-year running averages (solid line)
(a) North Hemisphere, (b) Siberia, (c) Bering Sea, (d) Greenland
图 6 不同层次环流转型日期的M-K统计量曲线 (a)10 hPa, (b)20 hPa
(UF为顺序时间序列的统计量，UB为逆序时间序列的统计量)
Fig. 6 Mann-Kendall statistic curves of standard deviation of annual transition date at 10 hPa (a) and 20 hPa (b) geopotential heights
(UF:statistic value of ordinal data; UB: statistic value of reverse data)
图 7 不同区域10 hPa环流转型时间标准化距平的小波分析
(a)北半球，(b)西伯利亚区，(c)白令海区，(d)格陵兰区
Fig. 7 Wavelet analysis statistic curves of standard deviation of annual transition dates at 10 hPa geopotential height of different regions in North Hemisphere (a), Siberia (b), Bering Sea (c), Greenland (d)
图 8 不同区域、不同层次环流转型日期出现频次
(a) 北半球，(b) 西伯利亚，(c) 白令海区，(d) 格陵兰区
Fig. 8 Percentage of annual transition dates at all levels of different regions in North Hemisphere (a), Siberia (b), Bering Sea (c), Greenland (d)
表 1 北半球平流层环流转型时间
Table 1 Transition date of stratospheric circulation in Northern Hemisphere
高度/hPa 冬季环流转为
夏季环流时间夏季环流转为
冬季环流时间10 4月上中旬 8月底 20 4月上中旬 8月底 30 4月下旬 8月中下旬 50 5月上旬 8月初 
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表 2 不同区域、不同层次的平均环流转型时间
Table 2 Average transition dates at all levels of the regions
高度/hPa 北半球 西伯利亚区 白令海区 格陵兰区 10 第112天 第111.7天 第139.9天 第139.6天 20 第113.5天 第112.7天 第138.7天 第137.9天 30 第118.3天 第116.6天 第143.4天 第140.5天 50 第145天 第141.4天 第173.6天 第154.4天
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表 3 北半球不同层次的最早、最晚转型时间
Table 3 Extreme transition dates at all levels in Northern Hemisphere
高度/hPa 最早转型时间 最晚转型时间 10 第70天 第150天 20 第70天 第151.5天 30 第70天 第155天 50 第96天 第181天
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