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May—July Temperature Variability Since 1801 Inferred from Tree Rings of Pinus tabulaeformis of Helan Mountains in China
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摘要: 利用2008年10月采自贺兰山北部的油松树轮样本建立了贺兰山北部区域树轮密度年表。相关分析表明：贺兰山北部的树轮早材平均密度与银川气象站5—7月平均最高温度具有较好的正相关关系，相关系数为0.67。用贺兰山北部的区域早材平均密度差值年表重建贺兰山北部1801—2008年的5—7月平均最高温度，58年 (1951—2008年) 重建值对实测值的解释方差为44.9%；2008年的贺兰山北部温度重建序列平均值为27.40℃。在最近20年，贺兰山树轮早材平均密度出现了明显的上升趋势，通过比对贺兰山北部重建序列的低温年份和全球火山爆发数据，发现在大规模火山爆发后的28个偏冷年温度平均值为26.90℃，较重建序列平均值下降0.50℃。多窗谱分析表明：贺兰山北部温度重建序列具有120年、8.1年、6.5年、3.2年、2.9年、2.1年的准周期变化。贺兰山北部早材平均密度与甘肃石门山、昌灵山油松的早材平均密度有良好的相关性。Abstract: Ninety newly measured tree-ring width and density series from Chinese Pines (Pinus tabulaeformis) from four sites in Helan Mountains are compiled. To remove non-climatic, age-related growth trends from the raw tree-ring width and density measurement series, while allowing lower frequency information above the mean segment length to be preserved, the program ARSTAN is used to detrend the ring width and density sequences using hugershoff growth curve and to average the standardized ring width and density sequences into the master chronologies. The correlating coefficient between earlywood density record and May—July maximum temperature of Yinchuan reaches up to 0.67 during 1951—2008. The May—July maximum temperature reconstruction (1801—2008) uses the earlywood density chronologies from the region. The explained variance of model is 44.9% (F=45.625, P < 0.0001). The mean temperature over the 1801—2008 periods is estimated to be 27.4 ℃. The reconstructed temperature has 3 warm periods, including 1801—1812, 1940—1953, and 1994—2008. The rising of temperature series in the 2000s is the fastest and indicates that temperature in the 2000s has been warmer than any other period since 1801. The reconstructed temperature during the last 208a has significant period cycles of 120 years (95%), 8.1 years (95%), 6.5 years (90%), 3.2 years (95%), 2.9 years (95%), and 2.1 years (99%). Many low density values are forced by volcanic eruptions. Comparison shows volcanic eruptions have no systematic relationship with this reconstruction data, but they are correlated with the regional characteristics of the temperature and forcing data. Detailed analysis, however, suggests a cooling of several years following primarily tropical events with a volcanic eruption index (VEI). Examples include Tambora in Indonesia (1815), Cosiguina in Nicaragua (1935), Chikurachki in Kurilels (1853), Sheveluch in Kamchatka (1854), Krakatu in Java (1883), Okataina in New Zealand (1886), Santa Maria in Guatemala (1902), Ksudach in Kamchatka (1907), Katmai in Alaska (1912), Bezymianny in Kamchatka (1956), Agung in Indonesia (1963), St Helens in US (1980), El Chichon in Mexico (1982), and Pinatubo in Philippines (1991). The mean of 28 low values after volcanic eruption in reconstructed temperature series is 26.9℃, which is 0.5℃ lower than the average over the 1801—2008. The earlywood density of Helan Mountains has good relations with the earlywood densities of Shimen Mountains and Changling Mountains in Gansu.
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图 2 早材平均密度差值年表与银川月平均最高温度相关分布
Fig. 2 Correlations of tree-ring date with Yinchuan monthly mean maximum temperature records
图 3 温度实测数据与重建值比较
Fig. 3 Comparison of recorded and estimated temperature for common period from 1951 to 2008
图 4 贺兰山北部5—7月平均最高温度逐年变化曲线及其10年低通滤波曲线
Fig. 4 Comparison between unfiltered and 10-year low-pass filtered May—July maximum temperature in the north part of Helan Mountains
图 5 贺兰山北部重建温度小波变换
Fig. 5 Wavelet analysis of the reconstructed series in the north part of Helan Mountains
表 1 树轮采样点概况
Table 1 Survey of the sampled sites of tree rings
采样点 树种 海拔/m 坡向 坡度/(°) 纬度 经度 样本量 苏裕口 油松 2260~2320 EEN 25~45 38°44′N 105°55′E 44 北寺 油松 2205~2210 NNW 25~30 38°58′N 105°55′E 52 大西沟 油松 2100 NNE 35 38°59′N 105°57′E 44 南寺 油松 2240~2280 EEN 19~25 38°41′N 105°50′E 40 
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表 2 贺兰山北部综合差值年表主要统计特征
Table 2 Tree-ring residual chronologies statistics in the north part of Helan Mountains
年表名称 平均敏感度 标准差 相关性 信噪比 样本总解释量 第1特征向量百分比/% 一阶自相关系数 年轮宽度 0.322 0.349 0.359 8.946 0.899 42.7 0.29 早材宽度 0.364 0.386 0.367 9.286 0.903 43.6 0.27 晚材宽度 0.282 0.301 0.196 3.903 0.796 29.7 0.27 早材平均密度 0.046 0.047 0.255 5.479 0.846 33.1 0.06 晚材平均密度 0.049 0.058 0.223 4.591 0.821 30.7 0.34 早材最小密度 0.058 0.056 0.252 5.379 0.843 32.0 -0.06 晚材最大密度 0.055 0.062 0.238 4.987 0.833 32.0 0.29
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表 3 树轮密度与气候要素的响应分析
Table 3 Summary of the significant response function coefficients
气象要素 树轮密度 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 平均温度 早材平均密度 ○ Ο Ο 晚材平均密度 早材最小密度 ○ Ο Ο 晚材最大密度 平均最高温度 早材平均密度 Ο Ο Ο Ο 晚材平均密度 早材最小密度 Ο Ο Ο Ο 晚材最大密度 平均最低温度 早材平均密度 ○ 晚材平均密度 ○ 早材最小密度 ○ 晚材最大密度 ○ 降水量 早材平均密度 ● ● 晚材平均密度 ○ 早材最小密度 ● ● 晚材最大密度 Ο Ο 注：Ο与○表示正相关，●表示负相关；Ο与●表示超过0.01显著性水平，○表示超过0.05显著性水平。
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表 4 贺兰山北部温度重建序列的相关统计特征
Table 4 Summary characteristics of temperature reconstruction in the north part of Helan Mountains
年份 冷年值/℃ 2002 26.50 1992 26.60 1983 26.70 1964 26.80 1970 26.80 1977 26.80 1979 26.80 1884 26.80 1895 26.80 1921 26.80 2008 29.30 1947 28.90 1994 28.60 1953 28.50 1804 28.40 2005 28.40 1811 28.30 1890 28.30 1957 28.30 1997 28.30 1970 27.20 1980 27.20 1960 27.28 1880 27.29 1830 27.34 1930 27.35 1820 27.36 1870 27.37 1840 27.38 1910 27.39 2000 27.88 1800 27.66 1950 27.64 1990 27.57 1890 27.56 1940 27.56 1810 27.53 1850 27.45 1900 27.44 1860 27.43 1810-1899 27.43 1900-2008 27.44 2000-2008 27.90 1801-2008 27.40
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表 5 重建气温序列与火山爆发
Table 5 The temperature reconstruction and volcanic eruptions
火山爆发 重建序列对
应低温年份距平值/℃ Tambora (1815年) 1816—1818 -0.4 Cosiguina (1835年) 1834—1835 -0.4 Chikurachki (1853年)，
Sheveluch (1854)1853—1854 -0.3 Krakatu (1883年)，
Okataina (1886年)1884—1888 -0.5 Santa Maria (1902年) 1902 -0.4 Ksudach (1907年)，
Katmai (1912年)1908—1913 -0.4 Bezymianny (1956年) 1956 -0.7 Agung (1963年) 1963—1964 -0.7 St Helens (1980年) 1979—1980 -0.6 El Chichon (1982年) 1983—1985 -0.7 Pinatubo (1991年) 1992 -1.0
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