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The Impact Factors and the Phenological Variation of Elymus nutans in Maqu Meadow
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摘要: 通过对1985—2005年玛曲草地垂穗披碱草 (Elymus nutans) 物候变化及其影响因子分析，发现玛曲草地垂穗披碱草返青期略有推迟的趋势，推迟趋势为1.6 d/10 a，而抽穗、开花、种子成熟、黄枯等物候期均呈提前趋势，特别是抽穗、开花、种子成熟期明显提前，提前趋势分别为4.9 d/10 a，8.0 d/10 a，13.9 d/10 a。影响玛曲草地垂穗披碱草返青期推迟的主要因子是秋季降水量减少，夏季气温升高是导致玛曲草地垂穗披碱草抽穗、开花、种子成熟期提前的主要原因，秋季暖干化趋势是导致黄枯期提前的主要原因。Abstract: Maqu county is located in the southwest of Gansu Province, on the northeast of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Maqu meadow is the core region of the important water source supply area of the Huanghe River, having unique significance in the water and eco-environmental security of the Huanghe River basin. A lot of remarkable results in the variation of Maqu meadow are achieved from the perspective of climate and eco-environment, but phenological variation of the pasture grass in Maqu meadow isnts paid enough attention. Based on the growing data of Elymus nutans (1985—2005) at the agricultural meteorological station of Maqu (102°05′E, 34°00′N, sea-level elevation 3471.4 m) and the simultaneous observation meteorological factors (such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, etc) at the same place, the relationship between the Elymus nutans phenological variation and the meteorological factors is studied, providing reference for the research on eco-environment variation of Maqu meadow.In recent 20 years, the Elymus nutans recovery date of Maqu meadow shows a delaying trend with the tendency ratio of 1.6 d/10 a, but the date of ear, bloom, maturate and withered show obvious advancing trends with the tendency ratios of 4.9 d/10 a, 8.0 d/10 a, 13.9 d/10 a and 1.3 d/10 a. The reducing of autumnal precipitation is main impact factor to delaying tendency of recovery date. The rising of summer temperature results in the advancing trend of Elymus nutans ear, bloom and maturate date in Maqu meadow, and the warming and drying trend of autumn is the main impact factor of the advancing Elymus nutans. The impact of these phenological changes on the Elymus nutans quality, yield and the quality of seeds need further research.Compared with Elymus nutans, the observation duration of other grass is less in Maqu meadow, so their phenological variation is not analyzed, which requires further research. Besides, the impact of the grass phenological variation on animal husbandry and eco-environment in Maqu meadow need further study too.
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Key words:
- Maqu meadow;
- Elymus nutans;
- phenological variety;
- impact factors
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图 1 玛曲草地垂穗披碱草生育期年际变化趋势
Fig. 1 The inter-annual variation of the growing season of Elymus nutans in Maqu meadow
表 1 玛曲草地垂穗披碱草物候期
Table 1 The phenological of Elymus nutans in Maqu meadow
物候期 平均日期 最早日期 最迟日期 年际变化趋势/(d/10 a) 返青 04-08 03-27 05-29 1.6 抽穗 07-10 07-02 08-16 -4.9** 开花 07-24 07-15 08-22 -8.0** 种子成熟 08-23 08-11 09-06 -13.9** 黄枯 09-27 09-18 10-07 -1.3 注：*表示通过95%信度检验，**表示通过99%信度检验。 
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表 2 玛曲草地垂穗披碱草黄枯主成分分析的主成分矩阵
Table 2 The matrix of principal components of the Elymus nutans withering period in Maqu meadow
气象因子 主成分1 主成分2 日平均气温
不小于5℃终日0.916 0.0727 9月气温 0.857 0.180 9月日照时数 0.068 0.997 9月降水量 0.372 0.921 夏季降水量 0.596 0.231
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