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Spatial and Temporal Variations of Hazes in Guangxi from 1960 to 2009
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摘要: 利用1960—2009年广西80个地面观测站资料，运用EOF、线性倾向估计等统计方法，分析了近50年广西霾日数的时空变化特征。结果表明：近50年广西霾日数总体呈上升趋势，与该地区人类活动和经济发展引起的污染排放增长密切相关；空间分布呈现出主要城市及其周边地区霾日多，边远地区及沿海地区霾日少的特点；广西霾天气主要发生在秋、冬季，以轻微霾 (能见度为5~10 km) 为主，且霾天气发生时的相对湿度8成以上介于70%~90%；除了空气污染之外，近50年风速呈下降趋势可能也导致更多的霾天气。Abstract: With the development of Guangxi economy and accelerating urbanization, human activities have discharged various pollutants into the atmosphere, which cause increasing atmospheric haze phenomenon in recent years. The toxic and harmful substances of hazes affect human health and environment a lot, becoming a new kind of severe weather. So it is very important to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of haze, which provide scientific bases for effective forecasting and controlling haze weather. Based on the data provided by 80 surface observation stations from 1960 to 2009, the haze days in Guangxi are calculated, and the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations of haze in Guangxi and its relationship with climate elements are analyzed by using EOF, linear trend estimation and other analytical methods. The average annual haze days in Guangxi are found to rise gradually over the past 50 years, which is closely related to the human activity and the increase in emissions by economic development. The haze happens more frequently in major cities and their surrounding areas than in remote areas and coastal areas. Comparing the periods of 1960—1979 and 1980—2009, and the remote areas and coastal areas, the haze days increase by different degrees in most parts of Guangxi, especially in Wuzhou, Liuzhou and other industrial cities. Haze in Guangxi occurs mainly in autumn and winter rather than in spring and summer, which may be the results of less precipitation. Compared to the 1960—1979 stage, the average monthly haze days increase significantly in 1980—2009 stage, especially in flood season. Haze days increase most significantly in December by 3.5 d, while in July increasing only 0.2 d. The average annual haze day in Guangxi over the past 50 years is 30.0 d, and the maximum is 61.7 d, which occurs in 2006. When haze weather occurs, the visibility distance mostly ranges from 5 km to 10 km, and the relative humidity mostly ranges from 70% to 90%. The change of haze days in Guangxi is proportional to temperature, and inversely proportional to wind. So, in addition to air pollution, the long-term decrease trend of wind speed in the last 50 years may have caused more hazy days.
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Key words:
- Guangxi;
- haze;
- EOF;
- linear trend estimation;
- spatial-temporal variation
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图 1 广西年平均霾日数分布 (单位：d) (a)1960—1979年，(b)1980—2009年
Fig. 1 The distribution of average annual haze days in Guangxi (unit:d)
(a) from 1960 to 1979, (b) from 1980 to 2009
图 4 1980—2009年广西GDP以及能源消耗变化
Fig. 4 The variation of GDP and energy consumption in Guangxi during 1980—2009
图 5 1998—2009年广西SO2以及烟尘排放量变化
Fig. 5 The variation of the volume of SO2 and soot discharged in Guangxi during 1998—2009
图 6 广西年霾日数EOF第1模态 (a)、第2模态 (b) 及第1时间系数 (c) 分布
Fig. 6 The 1st (a), 2nd (b) modes of EOF and the 1st time coefficient (c) of the annual haze days in Guangxi
图 8 广西霾日相对湿度分布特征
Fig. 8 The distribution of relative humidity during a haze day in Guangxi
表 1 EOF第1~第3模态的方差贡献率和累积方差贡献率
Table 1 The variance contribution rates and cumulative variance contribution rates of the 1st to 3rd mode of EOF
模态 方差贡献率/% 累积方差贡献率/% 1 80.6 80.6 2 6.1 86.7 3 3.7 90.4 
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表 2 广西霾日数和气温、降水、风速的主要统计参数
Table 2 The statistic parameters of wind speed, temperature, precipitation and haze days in Guangxi
气象要素 气候趋势系数 气候倾向率 与霾日数的相关系数 霾日数 0.85* 9.3 d/10 a 1.0 风速 -0.93* -0.12 m·s-1/10 a -0.83* 气温 0.47* 0.13℃/10 a 0.45* 降水量 -0.03 -8.5 mm/10 a -0.01 注：*表示通过了0.05的显著性检验。
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