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Characteristics of Precipitation in Beijing and the Precipitation Representativeness of Beijing Weather Observatory
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摘要: 将北京分为城区、郊区、南部山区及北部山区4个区域，利用14个观测站1978—2010年共33年的月降水量资料，分析了不同区域降水年变化和夏季降水特征及其差异。结果表明：各区域年平均降水量存在较大差异，郊区降水量最多 (620 mm)，城区与南部山区降水量较少，而北部山区降水量最少 (476 mm)；城区与南部山区的年降水量较接近，二者与郊区和北部山区都有显著差异。4个区域的降水量都表现出减少趋势，郊区最明显 (47 mm/10 a)，北部山区的减少趋势最小 (0.7 mm/10 a)。对4个区域夏季 (6—9月) 降水量分析发现，城区与南部山区具有较好的一致性，二者与郊区和北部山区具有显著差异。均方根偏差和相关系数的计算结果表明：北京市观象台与城区和南部山区的降水年变化和夏季降水特征差异均不显著，而与郊区和北部山区有显著差异，说明北京市观象台降水资料对城区和南部山区具有最优代表性，而对北部山区和郊区的代表性较差。Abstract:
In order to investigate annual variations and characteristics of summer precipitation, Beijing is divided into four areas according to different land use and topographic height: The urban area (UA), suburban area (SA), north mountainous area (NMA), and south mountainous area (SMA). Results of cluster analysis based on monthly precipitation amount during 33 years verify the reasonability of the regional division. Using observed monthly rain-gauge measurements from 14 meteorological stations in Beijing, differences among four areas are investigated. Significant annual mean precipitation differences are observed among four areas, with the maximum precipitation amount observed in SA (620 mm), followed by UA and SMA, and the minimum precipitation amount observed in NMA (476 mm). In UA and SMA, the precipitation amount is similar, presenting a significant difference from SA and NMA. Precipitation amount in all the four areas shows a decreasing trend, with the highest decreasing rate observed in SA (47 mm/10 a), which passes the significance test at a significance level of 0.06, and the lowest decreasing rate observed in NMA (0.7 mm/10 a). Summer precipitation which accounts for 79.1% of the annual total amount in four areas is analyzed. Results show that UA and SMA have similar features, yet being significantly different from those in SA and NMA.Differences in precipitation between Beijing Weather Observation (BWO) and four areas are also investigated, and results show that BWO isn’t significantly different from UA and SMA in both annual and summer precipitation amount, but differences between BWO, NMA and SA are significant. Upon comparison of the statistics of root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient of precipitation between BWO and four areas, consistent results are obtained, which reveals that the representativeness of precipitation in BWO is good for UA and SMA, but is poor for NMA and SA. As a result, it suggests that some other stations should be selected in suburban and north mountainous areas to represent the characteristics of precipitation there. Together with BWO, these stations may better reflect the characteristics of precipitation variations over Beijing metropolitan area.
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图 2 1978—2010年北京地区平均年降水量空间分布
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation amount during 1978—2010 in Beijing
图 3 1978—2010年北京4个区域年降水量变化
Fig. 3 Variations in annual precipitation amount during 1978—2010 over four areas in Beijing
图 4 北京4个区域与北京市观象台降水量差值的年变化
Fig. 4 Annual variations in precipitation differences between each of four areas in Beijing and Beijing Weather Observatory
图 5 1978—2010年北京市观象台及北京4个区域平均月降水量
Fig. 5 Monthly variations in precipitation at Beijing Weather Observatory and four areas in Beijing during 1978—2010
图 6 1978—2010年夏季北京平均降水量的空间分布
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of summer mean precipitation amount in Beijing during 1978—2010
图 7 1978—2010年夏季北京4个区域与北京市观象台气候平均降水量的差值
Fig. 7 Summer mean precipitation differences between four areas in Beijing and Beijing Weather Observatory during 1978—2010
表 1 1978—2010年北京4个区域年降水量差异的t检验
Table 1 t test of differences in annual mean precipitation amount during 1978—2010 over four areas in Beijing
区域 城区与郊区 城区与北部山区 城区与南部山区 郊区与北部山区 郊区与南部山区 南部山区与北部山区 显著性水平 0.033 0.009 0.617 0.000 0.007 0.022 
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表 2 京市观象台与北京4个区域1978—2010年降水量差异的t检验
Table 2 t test of precipitation differences between Beijing Weather Observatory and four areas in Beijing during 1978—2010
区域 t值 显著性水平 城区 -0.357 0.723 郊区 -2.404 0.019 南部山区 -0.094 0.925 北部山区 2.07 0.04
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表 3 1978—2010年夏季北京4个区域降水量差异的t检验
Table 3 t test of differences in summer mean precipitation amounts over four areas in Beijing during 1978—2010
区域 t值 显著性水平 城区与郊区 -1.12 0.264 城区与北部山区 2.22 0.027 城区与南部山区 0.43 0.668 郊区与北部山区 -3.47 0.001 郊区与南部山区 1.60 0.111 南部山区与北部山区 -1.90 0.059
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表 4 1978—2010年北京市观象台与北京4个区域年降水量和夏季平均降水量的统计分析结果
Table 4 Statistical results of annual and summer mean precipitation amounts between Beijing Weather Observatory and four areas in Beijing
统计量 城区 郊区 北部山区 南部山区 年降水量 夏季降水量 年降水量 夏季降水量 年降水量 夏季降水量 年降水量 夏季降水量 均方根偏差/mm 61.5 5.0 109.0 15.0 130.0 24.0 103.3 6.7 相关系数 0.907 0.997 0.880 0.999 0.598 0.970 0.700 0.992
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