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Characteristics of Lightning Casualties and Vulnerability Evaluation Regionalization in China
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摘要: 利用1997—2010年全国雷电灾害数据库资料和TRMM卫星的闪电观测资料，分析了我国雷击致人伤亡的年变化特征，结果表明：雷击造成我国平均每年460人死亡，425人受伤，死伤比为1：0.92，每年每百万人口平均死亡人数为0.36人，每年每万平方公里平均死亡人数为0.48人。为了揭示不同区域雷击致人伤亡的易损度，采用R型聚类分析方法对影响易损度的8个指标进行筛选，应用Q型聚类中类平均联结法进行分析计算，给出我国雷击致人伤亡的6类风险区划，发现广东和海南划为易损度极高的第1类地区，该类地区雷击致人伤亡的综合易损值高达5.017，而划为第5类、第6类的我国西北和东北地区雷击致人伤亡的易损度较弱，属弱风险区域。采用离差平方和法对聚类的结果进行解释和验证表明：聚类解稳定可信，较好地反映了雷击致人伤亡这种随机事件的区域易损度特征。Abstract: According to the data of lightning disasters from 1997 to 2010 and lightning observation by TRMM satellite, feature of national injuries and deaths from lightning is analyzed and the results indicate that lightning causes 460 deaths and 425 injuries every year on average. The mortality rate is 0.36 per million people and 0.48 per ten thousand square kilometers every year. Three indexes about lightning casualties reports, the number of lightning fatalities per ten thousand square kilometers and the number of lightning fatalities per million people have good correlation. Lightning-related casualties have increased for the period of 1997—2007 and then begin to decrease since 2008. Casualties anomaly percent is positive in the year of 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007, with the maximum value in 2007, when the ratio is 78% more than normal years.In order to reveal the vulnerability of lightning which lead to injuries and deaths in different region, R-cluster analysis is used for sifting the 8 indexes affected by vulnerability evaluation. Lightning density, casualties frequency, population, and region areas are selected as variables. Comparability measures of each sample are calculated by using Euclidean distance, and then the method of Q-cluster is used to analyze and calculate these date. Finally the results of 6 different kinds of risk zones of lightning that lead to injuries and deaths in China are given. Guangdong and Hainan pertain to vulnerability evaluation extreme high areas. In these areas, the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation of cluster reaches up to 5.017, where both the average density of lightning and personnel casualty rate is the highest in the six categories. In the opposite, the northwest and northeast of China are areas with the lowest vulnerability. Finally, Ward’s method of Q-cluster is adopted to explain and testify the result of cluster, showing the cluster solution is not only stable but also reliable. The result of the classification is appropriate, and preferably reflects regional vulnerability characteristics of lightning-caused casualties.
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Key words:
- lightning;
- casualties;
- vulnerability evaluation;
- regionalization
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图 1 1997—2010年我国雷灾事故数与造成人员伤亡雷灾事故数比较
Fig. 1 Comparison between accident number of lightning disasters and casualties in China from 1997 to 2010
图 2 1997—2010年我国雷击人员伤亡、死亡和受伤人数变化
Fig. 2 Annual number of lightning casualties, deaths and injuries in China from 1997 to 2010
图 3 1997—2010年我国雷击死伤人数距平百分率
Fig. 3 Lightning deaths and injuries anomaly percent in China from 1997 to 2010
图 5 1997—2010年我国雷灾致人伤亡率
Fig. 5 The rate of lightning casualties in China from 1997 to 2010
图 7 二叉树聚类图 (图中x轴是SPSS计算的类间距离测度映射值) (a) Within法, (b) Ward’s法
Fig. 7 Dendrogram of cluster (x axis is the mapping value of cluster distance with SPSS numeration) (a) Within method, (b) Ward's method
表 1 1997—2010年各省 (市、自治区) 雷灾情况统计
Table 1 The lightning disaster statistic for provinces in China from 1997 to 2010
序号 省 (市、自治区) 平均地闪密度/(次·km-2·a-1) 雷灾频数/(次·a-1) 人员伤亡频数/(人·a-1) 人口/104人 区域面积/(104km2) 1 北京 8.93 87.50 4.64 1382 1.68 2 天津 9.73 18.79 1.36 1001 1.13 3 河北 7.94 289.64 25.50 6744 18.77 4 山西 5.00 33.36 6.00 3297 15.63 5 内蒙古 3.60 50.36 14.43 2376 118.30 6 辽宁 6.37 113.57 15.86 4238 14.59 7 吉林 4.54 69.36 10.71 2728 18.74 8 黑龙江 4.12 47.93 11.43 3689 45.46 9 上海 7.43 24.07 6.50 1674 0.63 10 江苏 8.52 319.57 33.00 7438 10.26 11 浙江 8.19 542.64 35.57 4677 10.18 12 安徽 8.09 130.21 22.93 5986 13.96 13 福建 8.53 347.43 33.00 3471 12.14 14 江西 9.72 199.86 61.14 4140 16.69 15 山东 8.15 248.50 32.21 9079 15.67 16 河南 6.56 112.71 23.64 9256 16.70 17 湖北 7.01 151.93 41.14 6028 18.59 18 湖南 8.12 407.57 42.14 6440 21.18 19 广东 16.64 1395.57 121.86 8642 17.79 20 广西 12.62 149.79 50.07 4489 23.60 21 海南 15.99 53.14 21.93 787 3.39 22 重庆 8.49 42.64 13.07 3090 8.24 23 四川 4.73 133.21 46.43 8329 48.50 24 贵州 10.20 82.64 30.86 3525 17.60 25 云南 5.98 160.07 49.86 4288 39.40 26 西藏 1.74 14.29 15.14 262 122.84 27 陕西 3.48 29.14 19.43 3605 20.56 28 甘肃 2.59 10.71 32.43 2562 45.40 29 青海 2.05 18.43 23.50 518 72.12 30 宁夏 2.99 4.57 16.64 562 5.18 31 新疆 1.33 8.43 26.21 1925 165.00 
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表 2 8个变量之间的皮尔逊相关系数检验表
Table 2 The Pearson correlations of variables
变量 Ng F1 F2 N1 N2 D1 D2 A Ng 1.000 F1 0.571 1.000 F2 0.489 0.828 1.000 N1 0.301 0.544 0.546 1.000 N2 0.195 0.357 0.451 0.956 1.000 D1 0.267 0.055 -0.155 0.026 -0.083 1.000 D2 0.491 0.297 0.096 0.630 0.577 0.577 1.000 A -0.580 -0.206 -0.043 -0.260 -0.199 -0.410 -0.613 1.000
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表 3 各区域所在类别的特征值
Table 3 The eigenvalue of cluster
样本集 平均地闪密度/(次·km-2·a-1) 人员伤亡率/(10-4人·km-2·a-1) 人员伤亡率/(10-6人·a-1) {广东, 海南} 16.32 6.79 1.52 {江西, 广西, 福建, 贵州, 浙江, 云南} 9.21 2.18 1.06 {山东, 河南, 湖北, 湖南, 重庆, 安徽, 江苏, 上海, 四川} 7.46 1.7 0.46 {北京, 天津, 河北} 8.87 1.46 0.35 {内蒙古, 西藏, 新疆} 2.22 0.14 1.22 {山西, 吉林, 陕西, 辽宁, 黑龙江, 甘肃, 宁夏, 青海} 3.89 0.57 0.64
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表 4 各类别的综合易损值
Table 4 The comprehensive vulnerability evaluation of cluster
类别 样本集 标准化处理 综合易损值 平均地闪密度 单位面积人员伤亡率 单位人口人员伤亡率 第1类 {广东，海南} 1.6851 1.9393 1.3927 5.017 第2类 {江西，广西，福建，贵州，浙江，云南} 0.2459 0.0166 0.3994 0.662 第3类 {山东，河南，湖北，湖南，重庆，安徽，江苏，上海，四川} -0.1082 -0.1835 -0.8961 -1.187 第4类 {北京，天津，河北} 0.1771 -0.2836 -1.1336 -1.240 第5类 {内蒙古，西藏，新疆} -1.1689 -0.8341 0.7449 -1.258 第6类 {山西，吉林，陕西，辽宁，黑龙江，甘肃，宁夏，青海} -0.8309 -0.6547 -0.5074 -1.993
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