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The Central Asian Vortexes Activity During 1971—2010
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摘要: 利用1971—2010年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料，对中亚低涡的活动规律及不同移动路径对新疆天气的影响进行分析。结果表明：40年共出现305次中亚低涡过程，低涡成熟期维持日数共1166 d；中亚低涡随纬度分布有两个高频活动区域：47.5°~55°N (北涡) 和35°~47.5°N (南涡)，北涡表现出明显的季节变化，夏季所占比例最大为52%，而南涡活动四季差别不明显。中亚低涡的成熟期生命史2~3 d占56%，4~5 d占27.5%，5 d以上占16.5%。低涡活动具有明显的月、季节、年际和年代际变化，且呈显著的年代际增加趋势。南、北涡均出现东北、偏东和东南向移动路径，并影响新疆不同区域的天气。中亚低涡可造成新疆出现低温大风天气 (干涡) 和强降水天气 (湿涡)，干涡占60%，且季节分布比较均匀；湿涡占40%，季节分布差异大，其中，夏季最多占57%，秋、春季次之。Abstract: The synoptic scale system of cold vortex (the central Asian vortex) which occurs from east of Aral Sea to Xinjiang are frequently associated with Urals ridge, and its abnormal activity may cause many disasters such as rainstorm (snowstorm), low temperature and drought in Xinjiang, even affecting the weather and climate in east China. Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily datasets from 1971 to 2010, the activity patterns, different moving tracks of the central Asian vortex and its influences on Xinjiang are analyzed. The result indicates that the central Asian vortex processes occur 305 times and 1166 days altogether during its strong period in the past 40 years. There are two high-frequency activity center along with the latitude: One distributes from 47.5°N to 55°N (north vortex) with 57% of the vortexes, and the other one distributes from 35°N to 47.5°N (south vortex), where 37% of the vortexes occurs. Northern vortexes change greatly in different seasons, accounting for 52% in summer. But southern vortexes occur evenly in different seasons, maybe a little more in autumn and spring. The mature period of the central Asian vortexes is 3.8 days on average, the frequency decreases rapidly with the mature period increasing: 56% vortexes sustain between 2 to 3 days, 27.5% maintain for 4 to 5 days and only 16.5% can last for more than 5 days. The vortexes show obvious monthly, seasonal, annual and interannual variation characteristics. It occurs the most in July and summer, and the least in April and winter, and the decadal increasing trend is significant. As to moving tracks, most of them move northeastward, eastward, southeastward and about 6% move little or move without obvious rules. Different moving track causes different weather in Xinjiang. About 68% of southeastward moving north vortexes and 30% of eastward and northeastward moving south vortexes have caused heavy precipitation in Xinjiang. The central Asian vortex has two types of influences on the weather in Xinjiang: One type brings heavy precipitation in Xinjiang, which is called wet vortex, and the other type causes cool wind and a long period of cold weather with little precipitation, which is called dry vortex. Dry vortexes account for 60% of the total and occur evenly in different seasons. However, the wet vortex occupies 40% of the total and is significantly different in different seasons. 57% wet vortexes occurs in summer and at this time there are more wet vortexes than dry vortexes, but for autumn, spring and winter, there are more dry vortexes than wet vortexes, and only 2% wet vortexes occur in winter. The seasonal variation patterns of wet vortexes are consistent with that of precipitation in Xinjiang.
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图 1 1971—2010年中亚低涡活动空间分布 (实线，单位：d) 及其定义范围 (虚线)
Fig. 1 Spatial distribution (solid line, unit: d) and definition area (dashed line) of the central Asian vortexes
图 2 1970—2010年中亚低涡活动频次 (a) 月分布，(b) 季节分布
Fig. 2 Variations of the central Asian vortexes frequency during 1971—2010 (a) monthly variation, (b) seasonal variation
图 3 中亚低涡出现频次与持续时间关系的年 (a) 及季节 (b) 变化
Fig. 3 The annual (a) and seasonal (b) relationships between lifecycle and frequency of the central Asian vortexes
图 4 1971—2010年中亚低涡出现频次和日数
Fig. 4 Interannual frequency and number of days of the central Asian vortexes during 1971—2010
图 5 1971—2010年不同季节中亚低涡活动频次
Fig. 5 Interannual frequency variation of the central Asian vortexes in different seasons during 1971—2010
图 6 中亚低涡活动频次和日数的年代际变化
Fig. 6 Interdecadal variations of frequency and number of days of the central Asian vortexes
图 8 1996年7月500 hPa高度场 (实线，单位：dagpm) 和温度场 (虚线，单位：℃)
Fig. 8 500 hPa geopotential height (solid line, unit:dagpm) and temperature (dashed line, unit:℃) in July 1996
图 10 1982年6月30日、7月2日、7月4日500 hPa高度场(实线，单位：dagpm)和温度场(虚线，单位：℃)
Fig. 10 500 hPa geopotential height(solid line, unit:dagpm) and temperature(dashed line, unit: ℃) on 30 June, 2 July and 4 July in 1982
表 1 中亚低涡湿涡和干涡频次的季节分布
Table 1 Seasonal distribution of the dry and wet of the central Asian vortexes
时间 湿涡 干涡 合计 春季 21 39 60 夏季 70 45 115 秋季 28 46 74 冬季 3 53 56 全年 122 183 305 
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