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The Estimation and Application of Design Rainstorm Intensity in Tianjin Area
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摘要: 设计暴雨是防洪和排水设施建设的重要基础，完善设计暴雨是加强应对区域洪水和城市内涝灾害风险的重要保障。由于一般气象站的暴雨观测资料不足以推算城市排水所需的设计暴雨强度，因此研究如何最大限度地利用常规观测资料，对于在空间上细化城市排水设计暴雨具有重要意义。该文选取天津市区和塘沽两个具有长年分钟雨量资料的气象站，基于年最大值和年多值两种数据采样方式对暴雨强度进行推算，并分别编制了暴雨强度公式。与天津市区相比，塘沽的暴雨强度明显偏大，其在市政排水设计上不宜采用与天津市区相同的标准，否则将面临更大的暴雨内涝风险。对比分析两种暴雨强度公式计算值表明：当标准为2~10年一遇时，基于年最大值采样法的暴雨强度公式在排水设计上具有适用性，即利用常规观测资料推算的设计暴雨强度在排水设计方面的适用范围。这为在空间上进一步细化城市排水设计暴雨提供了参考。Abstract: The design rainstorm is an important foundation for the construction of flood control and drainage facilities. It is significant to improve the design rainstorm for strengthening the response to the regional flood and urban waterlogging disaster risk, which has been increasing with climate change and social development. However, the regular observations of rainstorm from general weather stations are insufficient for estimating the intensity of design rainstorm in urban drainage. It has been of great significance to maximize the use of regular observations to geographically refine the design rainstorm in urban drainage. Therefore, two weather stations from Tianjin urban and Tanggu districts with long period of precipitation-in-minute records, are chosen to estimate the intensity of design rainstorm and fit the intensity formula. Two methods are used in data sampling, one collecting the annual maximum and the other collecting multiple values per year. The comparison of the two locations indicates that the design rainstorm intensity in Tanggu district is much greater than that in the urban district. As a result, the drainage design at Tanggu district should be different from the urban district. Otherwise, Tanggu district would be confronted with greater risk of urban waterlogging disaster. The comparison of the two intensity formula suggests that the one based on the annual-maximum sampling is applicable in drainage design for the return period of 2—10 years. The application scope of the estimated design rainstorm intensity using regular observations is also pointed out for urban drainage. This provides a realistic reference for further spatial refinement of urban drainage design rainstorm.
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Key words:
- Tianjin Area;
- design rainstorm;
- rainstorm intensity;
- estimation;
- application
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图 1 天津站和塘沽站短历时降水量重现水平的对比
Fig. 1 Comparison of the short-time precipitation return level between Tianjin Station and Tanggu Station
表 1 塘沽站5~120 min暴雨强度相对于天津站偏差
Table 1 Deviation statistics of 5 to 120 minutes rainstorm intensity at Tanggu Station from that at Tianjing Station
重现期/a 绝对均方差/(mm·min-1) 相对均方差/% 0.25 0.2415 11.5 0.333 0.2564 15.3 0.5 0.2935 20.9 1 0.2555 20.9 2 0.2052 20.6 3 0.1277 16.3 5 0.1003 15.3 10 0.0815 16.6 
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表 2 两类暴雨强度公式
Table 2 Two types of rainstorm intensity formula
站点 概率分布 历时t/min 重现期T/a 暴雨强度公式i/
(mm·min-1)总绝对均方差/
(mm·min-1)总相对均
方差/%平均绝对
均方差/
(mm·min-1)平均相对
均方差/%天津站 伽马 5~120 0.25~10 
0.0426 2.3 0.0386 4.3 耿贝尔 5~1440 2~100 
0.0493 2.9 0.0458 3.8 塘沽站 伽马 5~120 0.25~10 
0.0707 3.7 0.0623 6.2 耿贝尔 5~1440 2~100 
0.0614 4.8 0.0587 4.8
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表 3 基于年最大值采样法的暴雨强度公式相对于伽马分布推算的暴雨强度的误差统计
Table 3 Error statistics of the rainstorm intensity formula based on the annual-maximum data sampling against the estimated rainstorm intensity by Gamma distribution
重现期/a 天津站 塘沽站 绝对均方差/(mm·min-1) 相对均方差/% 绝对均方差/(mm·min-1) 相对均方差/% 2 0.0523 6.6 0.0438 4.8 3 0.0386 4.5 0.0303 3.0 5 0.0597 6.3 0.0251 2.3 10 0.0533 5.0 0.0457 3.6
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表 4 基于两种数据采样法的暴雨强度公式的计算值的对比
Table 4 Calculation comparison of two rainstorm intensity formulas with different methods of data sampling
重现期/a 天津站 塘沽站 绝对均方差/(mm·min-1) 相对均方差/% 绝对均方差/(mm·min-1) 相对均方差/% 2 0.0391 3.3 0.0470 3.4 3 0.0134 1.0 0.0428 2.9 5 0.0566 4.0 0.0404 2.4 10 0.1254 7.9 0.0433 2.3
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