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区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术

王敏 李晓莉 范广洲 李泽椿

王敏, 李晓莉, 范广洲, 等. 区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(4): 395-401..
引用本文: 王敏, 李晓莉, 范广洲, 等. 区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(4): 395-401.
Wang Min, Li Xiaoli, Fan Guangzhou, et al. Calibrating 2 m temperature forecast for the regional ensemble prediction system at NMC. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(4): 395-401.
Citation: Wang Min, Li Xiaoli, Fan Guangzhou, et al. Calibrating 2 m temperature forecast for the regional ensemble prediction system at NMC. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(4): 395-401.

区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术

资助项目: 

公益性行业 (气象) 科研专项 GYHY201006015

详细信息
    通信作者:

    李晓莉, E-mail: lixl@cma.gov.cn

Calibrating 2 m Temperature Forecast for the Regional Ensemble Prediction System at NMC

  • 摘要: 采用非齐次高斯回归 (NGR) 技术对国家气象中心区域集合预报系统的2 m温度预报结果开展了一阶偏差和二阶离散度的校准研究。对预报结果比较详尽的检验分析表明:校准后的2 m温度预报可靠性和预报技巧均显著提高,表现为校准后集合预报成员的均方根误差与离散度更为接近;原Talagrand直方图中的“L”形分布现象得到有效改善;Brier评分、最小连续分级概率评分 (CRPS) 明显减小,相对作用特征 (ROC) 面积增大,说明校准后的2 m温度预报表现出更好的预报技能。此外,NGR技术与自适应误差订正技术的对比试验表明,NGR在消除集合平均偏差和提高集合离散度两个方面均有优势。
  • 图  1  2008年7月20日12:00起报的2 m温度集合平均 (预报时效为30 h) 与观测场之差的空间分布

    (a) 校准前,(b) 校准后

    Fig. 1  Distribution of the difference of 30-hour 2 m temperation forecast at 1200 UTC 20 July 2008

    (a) the difference between ensemble averge of model direct output and observation, (b) the difference between calibrated ensemble average and observation

    图  2  2 m温度预报的均方根误差和离散度

    Fig. 2  RMSE and ensemble spread of 2 m temperature

    图  3  2 m温度预报Talagrand分布

    Fig. 3  Talagrand diagrams of raw and calibrated 2 m temperature (forecast lead time is 6 hours)

    图  4  2 m温度预报BS评分

    Fig. 4  BS of raw and calibrated 2 m temperature

    图  5  2 m温度预报CRPS评分

    Fig. 5  CRPS of raw and calibrated 2 m temperature

    图  6  2 m温度预报ROC面积

    Fig. 6  Area under ROC curves for 2 m temperature

    图  7  不同训练期的2 m温度预报CRPS评分

    Fig. 7  CRPS of 2 m temperature from different training length

    图  8  不同离散度因子的2 m温度预报CRPS评分

    Fig. 8  CRPS of 2 m temperature from different spread rescaling

    图  9  2 m温度预报的均方根误差

    Fig. 9  RMSE of 2 m temperature

    图  10  2 m温度预报的BS评分

    Fig. 10  BS of 2 m temperature

    图  11  2 m温度预报的CRPS评分

    Fig. 11  CRPS of 2 m temperature

    图  12  2 m温度预报ROC面积

    Fig. 12  Area under ROC curves for 2 m temperature

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2011-08-05
  • 修回日期:  2012-05-10
  • 刊出日期:  2012-08-31

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