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Wind and Rainfall Features and Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone in Fujian
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摘要: 根据1961—2010年热带气旋资料，按登陆地段或移动路径将登陆影响福建的热带气旋分为11种路径，分析各种路径的致灾因子空间分布特征，结果表明：热带气旋雨灾最严重的区域位于北部和中部沿海，风灾最严重的是南部沿海；从路径来看，降水强度最强是登台入闽北路径，强风区域最大的是直接登陆闽南路径和登台入闽中部路径，风力最强的是登台入闽南路径。采用相关系数客观赋权法建立了致灾因子风险评估模型，分析不同热带气旋路径致灾因子风险等级，登台入闽中和登台入闽北路径风险最大，其次是直接登陆闽南和登陆珠江口及以东路径；高风险区域 (包括次高危险和高危险区) 集中在沿海地区、闽西和闽北的局部。Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) influences Fujian Province frequently and often makes severe damages. The damages aroused by TC depend on undertaker, disaster defense abilities and the factors such as environment, weather and so on.The weather factor is a trigger and the essential term of the damage. TCs from 1961 to 2010 which affect Fujian Province are divided into 11 types according to their landing sites and moving paths. Then spatial features of rainfall and wind speed of each TC type are given, and then spatial features of damage potential are given based on them. Evidence shows that TCs landing Fujian Province mostly land Taiwan first and often result in rainfall and strong wind speed, meanwhile TCs landing south to the Pearl River estuary only result in strong wind speed in Fujian Province. The most serious damages aroused by rainfall located in north of Ningde and Jinjiang, while the strongest wind speed occurs in south coastal area of the Province. TCs landing Taiwan and then landing north of the Province again cause the heaviest rainfall, the strongest wind speed aroused by TCs landing Taiwan and then landing south of the Province, TCs landing Taiwan and landing south of the Province again, then landing south of the Province directly cause the broadest area of strong wind speed. Using objective correlation coefficient weighting, an assessment model of damage potential of rainfall and strong wind speed is established. The model reveals some facts: The highest damage potential area is often near the landing site and north to it. When TCs move westward into inland, it often produces a secondly highest area. TCs landing Taiwan, then landing north or middle of the Province again produce the highest damage potential, and landing south of the Province directly or landing south to the Pearl River estuary. High damage potential areas mostly appear in coastal area, west or north of the Province, while low potential areas appear in the river basin.
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图 1 登陆影响福建热带气旋不同路径示意图
Fig. 1 Diagram of different landing and influencing tropical cyclone paths in Fujian
图 2 登陆和影响福建热带气旋不同路径频数 (a) 登陆类, (b) 影响类
Fig. 2 Different path frequency of tropical cyclones landing (a) and influencing (b) Fujian
图 3 风、雨天气分类的不同路径热带气旋个数
Fig. 3 Different path frequency of tropical cyclones according to wind and rain weather
图 6 不同路径登陆福建热带气旋风雨风险指数区划图
Fig. 6 The disaster risk section map of rain and wind index about different landing tropical cyclone paths in Fujian
图 7 不同路径影响福建热带气旋风雨风险指数区划图
Fig. 7 The risk section map of rain and wind index about different influencing tropical cyclone paths in Fujian
表 1 路径分类标准
Table 1 Standard of tropical cyclones path classification
分类 序号 路径 备注 登陆类 1 直接登陆闽北 从我国台湾北部沿海经过登陆福建沿海，登陆地点包括福建中部和北部 2 直接登陆闽南 从我国台湾南部沿海经过登陆福建沿海，登陆地点包括福建中部和南部 3 登台入闽北 先登陆我国台湾，再登陆福州至福鼎 (含福鼎) 沿海 4 登台入闽中 先登陆我国台湾，再登陆厦门至福州 (含福州) 沿海 5 登台入闽南 先登陆我国台湾，再登陆诏安至厦门 (含厦门、诏安) 沿海 影响类 6 登陆珠江口及以东 登陆珠江口 (含珠江口) 及以东至诏安 7 登陆珠江口以西 登陆珠江口以西，包括广西、海南 8 登陆浙江及以北 登陆浙江及以北的我国大陆 9 登陆我国台湾 登陆我国台湾后转向，未在我国大陆登陆 10 海峡内消失 台湾海峡内消失 11 海峡外消失 除以上10条路径外的其他路径 
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