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Statistical Characteristics of Short-time Heavy Precipitation in Shan-Gan-Ning Region from May to September in Recent 6 Years
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摘要: 利用2005—2010年5—9月加密自动气象站1 h降水资料对陕甘宁三省不同强度短时强降水时空分布特征、天气学概念模型以及物理量特征进行研究，结果表明：短时强降水在陕甘宁三省存在4个活跃区和3个不活跃区；7—8月是短时强降水的多发期，两大峰值出现在7月下旬和8月中旬，日变化呈双峰分布，1 h降水量≥30 mm的短时强降水具有夜间多发性；通过典型个例的综合分析，建立了低槽-副高型、低涡-远距离台风型、两高切变型3类短时强降水概念模型；从物理量场来看，3类短时强降水均具有丰富的水汽和不稳定层结 (能量)、高于发生冰雹的0℃层高度、较厚的暖云厚度，且均发生在弱风切变环境中；低槽-副高型最为典型，其抬升凝结高度最高，500 hPa与850 hPa假相当位温差Δθse、抬升指数，K指数，对流有效位能量值最低，短时强降水发生频次高，1 h降水量大多在25 mm以内。低涡-远距离台风型水汽条件最好，深厚湿区、次天气尺度Ω系统和较低的抬升凝结高度使短时强降水发生范围最广，强度更强。两高切变型降水强度最大、持续时间最短并具有突发性, 其Δθse、抬升指数、K指数、对流有效位能最高，0～3 km垂直风切变最强，对流性特征明显，特别是强天气威胁指数接近300，强降水发生的同时往往伴有雷暴。Abstract: The statistical characteristics of short-time heavy precipitation vary in different areas. Based on thehourly automatic weather station precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data with the resolution of 1°× 1° in Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia from May to September during 2005—2010, the statistical analysis are conducted to explore the spatial-temporal distribution of short-time heavy precipitation in different class, synoptic conceptual models and their features of physical parameter. The results indicate there are 4 active and 3 inactive areas of short-time heavy precipitation in Shan-Gan-Ning Region.Hourly precipitation above 80 mm could occur in both areas. Short-time heavy precipitation (over 30 mm per hour) is closely associated with special terrain such as wind ward slop of mountain and trumpet-shaped terrain. Short-time heavy precipitation is active in July and August, followed by June and September. The severe rainfall occurs mostly in late June and mid-August, and the cumulative frequency is slightly smaller in early August because of droughts season. Diurnal variation presents the bimodal distribution. Short-time heavy precipitation (over 30 mm per hour) shows the characteristic that severe precipitation tends to occur in the evening (2000—0800 BT). With the increase of precipitation intensity, that feature becomes more obvious. Spatial-temporal distribution features above are closely associated with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. All 3 kinds of synoptic conceptual model have common features in physical quantities filed: Ample of vapor, convective unstablestratification, instable energy, high 0℃ isotherm height, thick warm cloud layer, and weak wind shear. Despite common features, each model has its unique features.Trough and subtropical high pattern is the most typical type in Shan-Gan-Ning Region. This pattern has the highest value of LCL and lowest of Δθse(500 hPa minus 850 hPa), LI, K and CAPE, so the short-time heavy precipitation happens most frequently and the hourly precipitation is seldom more than 25 mm. Low vortex and typhoon far away pattern has the most favorable vapor condition and its deep wet area, sub-synoptic scale Ω system, lowest LCL results in broad precipitation areas and stronger precipitation. Shear between two high pressure pattern has the highest contribution of Δθse, LI, K, CAPE and strongest vertical wind shear (0—3 km), which leads to the most sever precipitation. Short-time heavy precipitation of this pattern occurs more suddenly and doesn't last long, when the SWEAT reaches near 300. It can also be found that the occurrence of short-time heavy precipitation is often accompanied by thunderstorm.
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图 1 陕甘宁地区地形高度和站点分布
Fig. 1 Topography and distribution of automatic weather stations in Shan-Gan-Ning Region
图 2 2005—2010年陕甘宁三省短时强降水 (1 h降水量≥10 mm) 累积发生频次 (a) 和1 h最大降水量分布 (b)
Fig. 2 Distribution of short-time heavy precipitation (no less than 10 mm per hour) cumulative frequency (a) and maximum hourly precipitation (b) in Shan-Gan-Ning Region from 2005 to 2010
图 3 2005—2010年陕甘宁三省短时强降水累积发生频次、1 h最大降水量、1 h降水量≥30 mm平均降水量月变化
Fig. 3 Monthly variation of cumulative frequency of short-time heavy precipitation, maximum hourly precipitation and hourly mean precipitation above 30 mm in Shan-Gan-Ning Region from 2005 to 2010
图 4 5—9月沿不同经线短时强降水累积发生频次旬变化
Fig. 4 Ten-day cumulative frequency of different short-time heavy precipitation along longitude from May to September
图 5 陕甘宁三省短时强降水累积发生频次和1 h最大降水量日变化
Fig. 5 Diurnal variation of cumulative frequency of short-time heavy precipitation and maximum hourly precipitation in Shan-Gan-Ning Region
图 6 陕甘宁地区短时强降水概念模型 (绿色区域为短时强降水落区)(a) 低槽-副高型，(b) 低涡-远距离台风型，(c) 两高切变型
Fig. 6 The conceptual model of short-time heavy precipitation in Shan-Gan-Ning Region (area with short-term heavy precipitation is green)(a) trough and subtropical high pattern, (b) low vortex and typhoon far away pattern, (c) shear between two high pressure patterns
表 1 各类概念模型物理量平均值
Table 1 Average physical parameters of each short-time heavy precipitation conceptual model
物理量 低槽-副高型 低涡-远距离台风型 两高切变型 水汽总量/mm 58.23 64.72 56.31 700 hPa水汽通量散度/(10-7g/(cm2·hPa·s)) -6.23 -12.46 -8.55 500 hPa和850 hPa假相当位温差Δθse/℃ -5.64 -7.71 -10.62 500 hPa和850 hPa温度差ΔT/℃ -24.51 -26.38 -29.27 抬升指数/℃ -3.12 -4.03 -4.61 对流有效位能/(J·kg-1) 257.43 639.62 1019.76 K指数/℃ 36.47 36.25 38.83 0℃层高度/gpm 5513.81 5207.74 5381.32 抬升凝结高度/gpm 915.93 837.63 872.51 暖云层厚度/gpm 4597.88 4370.11 4508.81 0～3 km垂直风切变/s-1 0.0027 0.0023 0.0044 强天气威胁指数 242.62 233.59 295.62 
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