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Comparison of Surface Solar Radiation Reanalysis Data and Observations over China
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摘要: 利用我国地表太阳辐射台站资料和海上观测资料与同期的NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/CFSR再分析资料进行比较，检验再分析资料是否能够反映中国地区的太阳辐射特征。结果表明：1979年之前NCEP/NCAR太阳辐射资料的可信度较低，存在虚假的明显上升趋势，1979年之后两套再分析资料的可信度均较高，在我国东部和低纬度地区的可信度好于西部和高纬度地区；由逐6 h再分析数据直接计算得到的逐日太阳辐射比实际观测偏低，剔除太阳辐射为零的情况计算逐日资料更合理。在大陆地区，NCEP/NCAR，NCEP/CFSR再分析资料与台站太阳辐射资料的1979—2009年共31年平均误差分别为10.37 W·m-2和-42.68 W·m-2，误差的标准差分别为12.31 W·m-2和4.19 W·m-2；在海洋区域，NCEP/NCAR，NCEP/CFSR再分析资料与海上观测太阳辐射资料的平均误差分别为-161.19 W·m-2和-179.66 W·m-2，误差的标准差分别为37.07 W·m-2和35.36 W·m-2。与大陆台站资料相比，海上观测与再分析资料的误差偏大，这可能与海上观测资料较少，限制了NCEP模式的评估和改进有关。Abstract: Comparison of surface solar radiation data of NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data and data from stations and marine observations are conducted to check whether reanalysis data can reflect the characteristics of surface solar radiation over China. The results show that NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are less reliable before 1979, but both NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data are high reliable after 1979, and the reliability is higher in east and low latitude areas than that in west and high latitude areas over China. Because the daily mean data calculated by six-hour reanalysis data is lower than real data over China, it is reasonable to calculate the daily data by excluding the case of zero observation to minish the deviation.Long-term average errors between NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/CFSR and station observations of surface solar radiation are 10.37 W·m-2 and-42.68 W·m-2 in Chinese Mainland from 1979 to 2009, with standard deviation of absolute errors being 12.31 W·m-2 and 4.19 W·m-2. Average errors between NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/CFSR and marine observations of surface solar radiation are-161.19 W·m-2 and-179.66 W·m-2 over the sea during marine observing, with standard deviation of absolute errors being 37.07 W·m-2 and 35.36 W·m-2. The surface solar radiation from both NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data are bigger than station observations along the Yangtze River Valleys around Chongqing, where the biggest deviation appears.This maybe due to the fact that cloudiness data from reanalysis are smaller than observations here. Since the NCEP mode doesn't consider aerosols, it has also induced the bigger deviation of surface solar radiation between reanalysis data and observations.Besides, Chongqing is a mountainous region, whose terrain shelter influences surface solar radiation. It should increase surface solar radiation from 18% to 63%, when reanalysis data are used on the Yangtze River Valleys. There is some false phenomenonin long-term variation of surface solar radiation from reanalysis data. For example, a false upward trend exists notably in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data before 1979 and the false extreme value of NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data appear in 1998. To some extent, the reanalysis data can be used for study of the surface solar radiation in Chinese Mainland. And the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of surface solar radiation can also be reflected over the sea. For the deviation and false phenomenon of reanalysis data, more attention should be paid when using them in long-term climatological diagnosis. Compared with surface solar radiation from land station observation, there is a big deviation between the marine observations and the reanalysis data. This may due to the lack of marine observations, which will confine the evaluation and development of NCEP mode. Besides, the sea data used are constructed from marine observations from 2006 to 2007. For its insufficient sample, the data quality of surface solar radiation from NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data need to be studied further over the sea.
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图 1 气象观测站点分布图 (■所示站点是云量、降水、相对湿度、风速、日照时数等资料缺测的台站),
(a) 大陆地区站点分布, (b) 海上观测区块划分及邻近陆上站点分布
Fig. 1 Distribution of meteorological observation stations (■ denotes the station has no observation of cloud, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration) (a) distribution of stations in Chinese Mainland, (b) marine observation areas and land stations close to them
图 2 1979—2009年NCEP/NCAR (a)、NCEP/CFSR (b)、RE-NCEP/NCAR (c)、RE-NCEP/CFSR (d) 再分析资料与台站资料 (e) 的太阳辐射空间分布
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of solar radiation from datasets of NCEP/NCAR (a), NCEP/CFSR (b), RE-NCEP/NCAR (c), RE-NCEP/CFSR (d) and station observations (e) from 1979 to 2009
图 3 1979—2009年RE-NCEP/NCAR (a) 及RE-NCEP/CFSR (b) 与台站资料的相对误差 (等值线，单位：%) 和相关分布 (阴影)
Fig. 3 Relative errors (contour, unit: %) and correlation coefficient (shaded) between observations and RE-NCEP/NCAR (a), RE-NCEP/CFSR (b) reanalysis data from 1979 to 2009
图 4 大陆地区1963—2009年太阳辐射的长期变化 (a) 和1979—2009年太阳辐射逐月变化 (b)
Fig. 4 Long-term variations of solar radiation in Chinese Mainland from 1963 to 2009(a) and monthly variations of solar radiation in Chinese Mainland from 1979 to 2009(b)
图 5 海上太阳辐射资料的比较
(a) 太阳辐射海上观测与邻近陆上站点资料的相关系数，(b) 太阳辐射海上观测资料与邻近陆上站点资料、RE-NCEP/NCAR和RE-NCEP/CFSR资料调查区块平均值的比较
Fig. 5 Comparison of several solar radiation data sets over sea
(a) correlation of solar radiation between marine observations and land stations close to the sea, (b) comparison of regional average of solar radiation between marine observations and land stations close to the sea, RE-NCEP/NCAR and RE-NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data
表 1 再分析资料与台站资料绝对误差统计表
Table 1 Statistics of absolute errors between reanalysis data and observations
资料集 最大值/(W·m-2) 最小值/(W·m-2) 平均值/(W·m-2) 标准差/(W·m-2) 样本数 NCEP/NCAR -108.22 -64.89 -81.60 11.95 15134 NCEP/CFSR -123.18 -104.91 -113.51 4.49 316727 RE-NCEP/NCAR 26.42 -17.87 10.37 12.31 15134 RE-NCEP/CFSR -51.76 -35.17 -42.68 4.19 316727 注：绝对误差的计算以台站资料为标准。 
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表 2 再分析资料与海上观测资料的绝对误差统计表 (单位：W·m-2)
Table 2 Statistics of absolute errors between reanalysis data and marine observations (unit: W·m-2)
资料 最大值 最小值 平均值 标准差 NCEP/NCAR -255.60 -132.58 -205.89 37.07 NCEP/CFSR -273.79 -145.24 -219.75 38.88 RE-NCEP/NCAR -207.67 -91.13 -161.19 35.36 RE-NCEP/CFSR -231.93 -108.00 -179.66 37.30 注：绝对误差的计算以海上辐射观测资料为标准。
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