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The Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System to GRAPES
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摘要: 在分析美国局地分析预报系统 (LAPS) 和GRAPES_Meso数值预报系统，实现GRAPES-LAPS接口的基础上，通过两种数据融合方案，即GRAPES/LAPS方案 (简称LAPS方案) 和GRAPES/3DVAR方案 (3DVAR方案)，对2008—2010年华南地区的28个个例的地面、探空常规和加密资料，以及多部多普勒天气雷达数据等融合、同化，开展两种方案的对比模拟试验。结果表明:LAPS方案获得的初始场，水汽条件有所改善，其辐合辐散相耦合触发中小尺度系统发展加强的中尺度环境场，有助于提高模式对强对流天气的预报能力。两种方案的24 h要素场均方根误差检验结果和降水TS评分大体相当，但28个个例中，LAPS方案报出了10个暴雨，而3DVAR方案只报出了5个，LAPS方案的中雨、大雨和暴雨的24 h降水预报TS评分要略好于3DVAR方案相应预报的TS评分，表明LAPS方案对强降水的预报较3DVAR方案有一定改进。Abstract: The local analysis and prediction system (LAPS) is widely applied, providing fast comprehensive analysis products for forecasters and assimilating various observational information. GRAPES_Meso is a new generation of global/regional assimilation and prediction system, developed by Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and has been used in operation and research. However, LAPS itself does not provide any interface system with GRAPES_Meso.Based on the investigation of LAPS and GRAPES_Meso, the output data of LAPS are used as the initial condition of GRAPES_Meso model (GRAPES-LAPS), and compared with the original initial scheme of GRAPES_Meso model (GRAPES-3DVAR). Twenty-eight rainfall events in Southern China from 2008 to 2010 are simulated with the two initial schemes, which both assimilate data including 14 Doppler radar observations, 30 radiosonde observations and about 530 surface observations.The results show that the initial fields obtained by the GRAPES-LAPS scheme accurately represent the moisture fields and meso-scale environmental circulations. The simulated moisture and convergence at low level by the GRAPES-LAPS scheme are stronger than the results of the GRAPES-3DVAR scheme, and these initial fields are beneficial to improve the GRAPES_Meso model simulation. The mean square error (MSE) and threshold scores (TS) of two schemes of the twenty-eight rainfall events are equivalent, but ten rainstorm events are accurately simulated by using GRAPES-LAPS scheme and only five rainstorm events are accurately simulated by GRAPES-3DVAR scheme. The TS scores of moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm by the GRAPES-LAPS scheme are a little better than those of the GRAPES-3DVAR scheme, indicating that the GRAPES-LAPS scheme is more suitable to forecast strong rainfall events than the GRAPES-3DVAR scheme.
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Key words:
- LAPS;
- GRAPES;
- heavy storm forecast;
- TS score
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图 1 GRAPES模拟区、LAPS数据融合区及其区域内的雷达站、地面站、探空站分布图
Fig. 1 The distribution of operational radar stations, automatic weather stations and radio sounding stations in the zone of GRAPES and LAPS model simulation
图 2 2009年7月14日08：00—15日08：00的24 h降水分布
(a) LAPS方案，(b)3DVAR方案，(c) 实况
Fig. 2 24-hour accumulated rainfall from 0800 BT 14 July 2009 to 0800 BT 15 July 2009
(a) LAPS scheme, (b)3DVAR scheme, (c) observation
图 3 2009年7月14日08：00 LAPS方案和3DVAR方案的850 hPa和700 hPa层比湿场
Fig. 3 The specific humidity of 850 hPa and 750 hPa at 0800 BT 14 July 2009 from LAPS and 3DVAR schemes
图 4 2009年7月14日08：00 LAPS方案和3DVAR方案的700 hPa散度和118°~119°E散度垂直分布
Fig. 4 Divergence of 700 hPa and vertical distribution of divergence from 118°E to 119°E at 0800 BT 14 July 2009 from LAPS and 3DVAR schemes
图 5 2009年7月14日08：00 LAPS方案和3DVAR方案的700 hPa涡度和118°~119°E涡度垂直分布
Fig. 5 Vorticity of 700 hPa and vertical distribution of vorticity from 118°E to 119°E at 0800 BT 14 July 2009 from LAPS and 3DVAR schemes
图 6 LAPS和3DVAR方案850 hPa湿度 (a) 和500 hPa高度场 (b)24 h预报结果均方根误差
Fig. 6 The root-mean-square errors of 24-hour 850 hPa humidity (a) and 500 hPa height (b) of LAPS and 3DVAR schemes
图 7 LAPS和3DVAR方案24 h降水量预报TS评分
Fig. 7 TS scores of 24-hour accumulated rainfall forecast of LAPS and 3DVAR schemes
图 8 LAPS和3DVAR方案24 h暴雨预报的TS评分
Fig. 8 TS scores of 24-hour rainstorm forecast of LAPS and 3DVAR schemes
表 1 个例时间信息表
Table 1 Information of 28 cases
序号 2008年 2009年 2010年 1 05-17 05-19 05-01 2 05-18 05-20 05-02 3 05-19 05-21 05-03 4 07-07 05-04 5 07-08 05-05 6 07-09 05-6 7 07-10 05-11 8 07-11 05-12 9 07-12 05-14 10 07-13 05-18 11 07-14 05-19 12 07-15 05-20 13 05-21 
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