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Characteristics of Shaanxi Summer Precipitation Anomalies in ENSO Developing and Decaying Stages
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摘要: 利用1961—2008年陕西78个气象站夏季 (6—8月) 降水资料、NCEP/NCAR位势高度场和风场月平均再分析资料，采用合成及相关分析方法探讨ENSO发展和衰减阶段对陕西夏季降水异常的影响，以期为陕西夏季降水的气候预测提供线索和依据。结果表明：陕西夏季降水异常对ENSO发展和衰减阶段的响应存在显著差异，El Niño发展阶段和La Niña衰减阶段，陕西夏季降水偏少; El Niño衰减阶段和La Niña发展阶段，陕西夏季降水偏多; ENSO不同阶段对陕西7月降水影响最为显著。比较而言，El Niño事件对陕西夏季降水的影响更加显著。在El Niño衰减、La Niña发展阶段，西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西，东亚夏季风偏弱，而在El Niño发展、La Niña衰减阶段，西太平洋副热带高压偏弱、偏东，东亚夏季风偏强，El Niño过程对东亚夏季风强弱的影响更加显著。ENSO发展和衰减阶段通过影响大气环流变化和东亚夏季风的强弱，进而影响陕西夏季降水。
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关键词:
- 陕西夏季降水;
- ENSO发展和衰减阶段;
- 东亚夏季风
Abstract: Based on Shaanxi summer precipitation data from 1961 to 2008, NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data, the influence of developing stage and decaying stage of ENSO events on Shaanxi summer precipitation is analyzed through composite analysis. It shows that the response of Shaanxi summer precipitation to ENSO in developing stage is very different from that of the decaying stage. During El Niño developing stage and La Niña decaying stage, the precipitation in Shaanxi is less than normal. During La Niña developing stage and El Niño decaying stage, Shaanxi has more precipitation than normal, and the most significantly impacted period by ENSO is July. The response of Shaanxi summer precipitation anomalies to La Niña developing stage and El Niño decaying stage is more remarkable than that of El Niño developing stage and La Niña decaying stage. There is a significant difference in atmospheric circulation in developing and decaying stages of ENSO, especially with regard to the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asia monsoon strength. During El Niño developing stage and La Niña decaying stage, the western Pacific subtropical high is stronger and more west than normal and the East Asia monsoon is weaker than normal. During La Niña developing stage and El Niño decaying stage, the situation is the opposite. When the subtropical high is stronger and further west, Shaanxi has southwest wind anomalies which transport water vapor, the northern part has the north wind anomalies that bring cold air, and the precipitation would be higher. ENSO developing and decaying stages affect on the change of atmospheric circulation and the East Asia monsoon, and contribtute to Shaanxi summer precipitation. During El Niño developing stage and La Niña decaying stage, the East Asia monsoon is stronger, and Shaanxi has less precipitation. During La Niña developing stage and El Niño decaying stage, the East Asia monsoon is weaker and Shaanxi has more precipitation. In comparison, the East Asia summer monsoon is greatly affected by El Niño events than La Niña events. At the same time, Shaanxi summer precipitation is also affected by El Niño events more greatly. This is an evidence that ENSO affect Shaanxi summer precipitation through changing the East Asia summer monsoon strength. -
图 1 陕西气象观测站分布图
Fig. 1 The distribtution of meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province
图 2 El Niño发展阶段和衰减阶段陕西夏季降水量距平百分率合成图
(单位：%;阴影区为达到0.05显著性水平的区域)
Fig. 2 The composite of Shaanxi precipitation anomalies percentage in El Niño developing and decaying stages
(unit:%;the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 4 El Niño发展和衰减阶段夏季平均500 hPa高度场 (单位：dagpm) 和700 hPa风场异常分布合成图
(阴影区为达到0.05水平显著性水平区域)
Fig. 4 The composite of summer mean 500 hPa height (unit:dagpm), 700 hPa wind anomalies in El Niño developing (a) and decaying (b) stages
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 6 1960—2008年夏季陕西78个气象站降水量与东亚夏季风指数、南海夏季风指数、南亚夏季风指数的相关分布
(阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 6 Correlation coefficients of Shaanxi summer precipitation to summer monsoon indexes of East Asia, the South China Sea, Southeast Asia during 1961—2008
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
表 1 ENSO发展和衰减阶段东亚夏季风指数、南海夏季风指数、东南亚夏季风指数合成及t检验
Table 1 The composited summer monsoon indexes of East Asia, South China Sea, Southeast Asia in ENSO developing and decaying stages and its t-test value
ENSO阶段 东亚夏季风 南海夏季风 东南亚夏季风 指数 t检验值 指数 t检验值 指数 t检验值 El Niño发展阶段 0.62 4.50** 0.72 6.49** 0.50 5.42** El Niño衰减阶段 -0.66 -3.82** -0.90 -5.68** -0.83 -3.70** La Niña发展阶段 -0.53 -1.45 -0.77 -2.14* -0.73 -1.70 La Niña衰减阶段 0.24 0.61 0.30 0.82 0.097 0.30 注：*表示达到0.1显著性水平；**表示达到0.05显著性水平。 
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