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Characteristics of Multi-patterns of Precipitation over the Yangtze-Huaihe Basins During Meiyu Season in Recent 30 Years
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摘要: 该文比较了不同站点分布情况下我国江淮地区梅雨期降水基本空间型态，发现较高分辨率的站点分布能得到更细化的空间型态。1979—2010年我国江淮地区梅雨期降水基本空间型态主要包括南部型、长江型和江淮型。年际变化上，梅雨期降水的南北反位相特征更加明显；而长江型梅雨期降水较其他两个型态而言相对独立。回归分析表明，3种降水型态所对应的东亚夏季风环流子系统的位置、季风经圈环流及梅雨期水汽输送等均存在明显差别，其中东亚太平洋遥相关型 (EAP) 和欧亚遥相关型 (EU) 对南部型降水有显著影响。1979年以来，前期赤道东太平洋海温主要影响我国长江流域和江南地区梅雨期降水，而江淮型梅雨期降水与热带海温没有显著的相关关系。Abstract: The spatial patterns of precipitation during Meiyu season (June—July) over the Yangtze-Huaihe Basins are analyzed under different distributions of surface stations. 424 stations to the east of 110°E are chosen for the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis during 1979—2010. Then, three precipitation patterns are obtained, i.e., the south pattern (SP), the Yangtze pattern (YP), and the Yangtze-Huaihe pattern (YHP).On the inter-annual time scale, it's found that the out-of-phase relationship displays more remarkably between the rainfall of SP and YHP in recent 30 years. However, the precipitation of YP shows no significant relationship with that of SP and YHP, revealing as more independent precipitation pattern. In addition, the YP has the most climatological precipitation, and shows the largest variability. While on the inter-decadal time scale, the YP precipitation is identical with that of SP. Nevertheless, the precipitation of YHP exhibits out-of-phase relationship with the YP and SP, especially since the early 1990s. There are obvious inter-decadal changes in the early 1990s and early 2000s in all spatial precipitation patterns during Meiyu season. But different from the previous years, by 2010, the YP and SP precipitation has increased a little but the YHP precipitation has decreased, suggesting a new inter-decadal variation.The regression using ERA-Interim reanalysis data indicates that corresponding to the anomalous precipitation, the intensities and positions of sub-systems of East Asian summer monsoon circulations, such as the south Asia high (SAH), the western Pacific subtropical high (SH) and the subtropical upper jet stream (JS), have notable differences which also exist in the monsoon meridional circulations and water vapor transport flux. Specifically, when the YP precipitation is in the flood years, the intensities of the SAH and SH enhance apparently. When the YHP precipitation is strong, the SAH and JS locate east, meanwhile, the geopotential height over Aleutian Islands maintain positive anomalies. The positive phase of the East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern and the negative phase of the Eurasian teleconnection pattern make it difficult for the SH to shift northward and confine it to a southern position, which in turn enhance the SP rainfall remarkably. Additionally, it is found that the SH, the monsoon meridional circulations, together with the vertically integrated water vapor transport flux stay successively in northern places, accompanying by a northerly rainfall pattern. Further analyses on sea surface temperature (SST) present that the previous SST of the east Pacific Ocean of the equator shows significant relationship with the precipitation of YP and SP. The cool SST of the western Pacific warm pool and warm SST in Chinese coasts and the Kuroshio area restrain the precipitation in the SP. But there is no distinct correlation between the precipitation of YHP and the tropical SST in the prior period, which implies that the tropical SST plays no key role in the YHP precipitation since 1979.
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图 1 由全国160个测站中位于110°E以东的90个站1979—2010年梅雨期 (6—7月) 降水量REOF分析得到的位于江淮地区的空间型态 (a) 站点分布, (b) 第2旋转分量, (c) 第3旋转分量
Fig. 1 The spatial patterns in the Yangtze-Huaihe Basins obtained by REOF of precipitation during Meiyu season (June—July) of 90 stations in 1979—2010 (a) the distribution of 90 meteorological stations, (b) the second rotational loading vector, (c) the third rotational loading vector
图 2 同图 1，但为由全国721站中位于110°E以东的424个站REOF分析得到 (实线框区为传统梅雨区)
(a) 站点分布, (b) 南部型, (c) 长江型, (d) 江淮型
Fig. 2 The same as in Fig.1, but obtained by REOF of 424 stations (the solid line box indicates the traditional Meiyu area)
(a) the distribution of meteorological stations, (b) the south pattern (SP), (c) the Yangtze River pattern (YP), (d) the Yangtze-Huaihe pattern (YHP)
图 3 1979—2010年各型态梅雨期降水量的标准化序列 (虚线为9年滑动平均线)
(a) 南部型, (b) 长江型, (c) 江淮型
Fig. 3 Standardized time series of precipitation during Meiyu season in 1979—2010 of SP (a), YP (b) and YHP (c) (the dashed line shows 9-year moving average)
图 4 由1979—2010年各型态梅雨期降水量回归的同期200 hPa和500 hPa位势高度场 (等值线，单位：gpm)(阴影区为达0.05显著性水平的区域) 和风场 (箭矢，单位：m·s-1，只给出纬向风达0.05显著性水平的区域)
(a)200 hPa, 南部型，(b)500 hPa，南部型, (c)200 hPa，长江型，(d)500 hPa，长江型，(e)200 hPa, 江淮型，(f)500 hPa，江淮型
Fig. 4 The geopotential height (contour, unit:gpm)(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level) and wind filed (only the wind vectors passing the test of 0.05 level are given, unit: m·s-1) regressed against precipitation during meiyu season in 1979—2010 at 200 hPa and 500 hPa
(a)200 hPa, SP, (b)500 hPa, SP, (c)200 hPa, YP, (d)500 hPa, YP, (e)200 hPa, YHP, (f)500 hPa, YHP
图 5 由1979—2010年各型态梅雨期降水量回归的同期整层积分水汽通量分布 (单位：kg·m-1·s-1；红色箭矢为达0.05显著性水平的区域)
(a) 南部型, (b) 长江型, (c) 江淮型
Fig. 5 The vertically integrated water vapor regressed against precipitation during Meiyu season in 1979—2010 (unit: kg·m-1·s-1, the vector of red color denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
(a) SP, (b) YP, (c) YHP
图 6 同图 5，但为云顶热辐射 (等值线，单位：W·m-2) 分布 (阴影区表示显著性水平)
Fig. 6 The same as in Fig.5, but for the top thermal radiation (isoline, unit: W·m-2) (the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 and 0.01 levels, respectively)
图 7 同图 6，但为110°~130°E平均经向垂直环流 (矢量) 剖面
Fig. 7 The same as in Fig.6, but for the cross section of meridion-height circulation (vector) averaged in 110°—130°E
图 8 1979—2010年各型态梅雨期降水量与全球海温的相关分布 (其中长江型为前期1—3月平均海温，南部型和江淮型为前期2—5月平均海温)
(a) 南部型，(b) 长江型, (c) 江淮型
Fig. 8 The correlation coefficient between precipitation during Meiyu season and SST in 1979—2010 (the SST is averaged from January to March for YP, and averaged from February to May for SP and YHP)
(a) SP, (b) YP, (c) YHP
表 1 各型态梅雨期降水量及标准差
Table 1 The precipitation with its standard deviation of each pattern during Meiyu season
型态 梅雨期月降水量/mm 标准差/mm 1979—2010年 1961—2010年 1979—2010年 1961—2010年 南部型 210.4 208.9 69.9 63.7 长江型 226.1 210.6 73.9 74.7 江淮型 185.3 177.2 64.0 60.4 
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表 2 各型态梅雨期降水量之间的相关系数
Table 2 The correlation coefficient of precipitation between Meiyu patterns
型态 1979—2010年
(R0.05=0.349)1961—2010年
(R0.05=0.279)南部型与江淮型 -0.418 -0.275 长江型与南部型 0.132 0.188 江淮型与长江型 0.224 0.207
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