Abstract:
Based on 24—168-hour model forecast of ECMWF, JMA, German Bureau of Meteorology, CMA and China Air Force, the multi-model super-ensemble and the multi-model ensemble mean forecasts of 500 hPa geo-potential height and 850 hPa temperature from 8 August to 31 August in 2010 are conducted using fixed training period and running training period. The root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient are utilized to evaluate forecasts of the super-ensemble, the multi-model ensemble mean, and anyone of five models. Meanwhile, the distribution of RMSE about different forecasts is analyzed, respectively. The results show that ECMWF model performs the best in 500 hPa geo-potential height forecast and JMA model performs best in 850 hPa temperature forecast among five models from 24 hours to 168 hours, and the skill of super-ensemble forecast is the best of all. The super-ensemble forecast skill is improved not only in fixed training period but also in running training period, and the super-ensemble result of running training is slightly better than the result of fixed training at the end of the forecast period, and both of them are better than the result of any single model and the simple ensemble mean. But the result of simple ensemble mean has its advantage along with the forecast time. The forecast result of the whole August shows that the value of RMSE in super-ensemble forecast is the least not only in 500 hPa geo-potential height but also in 850 hPa temperature, which is the best of all forecast results, and the result of running training is better than the fixed training. But the value of the correlation coefficient is similar between the forecasts, and the skill of the simple ensemble mean is the highest of all, which means the simple ensemble mean has its advantage. The RMSE distribution of super-ensemble, multi-model ensemble mean, and any single models is quite different over various regions, the skill of super-ensemble is the best of all. The areas of skill improvement by the super-ensemble forecast in 500 hPa geo-potential height are mainly located in Indian Peninsula, Indian Ocean, the Tibet Plateau and its west. The areas of skill improvement by the super-ensemble forecast in 850 hPa temperature are mainly in Mongolia, the Tibet Plateau and Xinjiang of China and its west.