设为首页
加入收藏
Major Advances of China Climate Monitoring and Diagnosis Operation in Recent 20 Years
-
摘要: 气候监测诊断是了解气候系统变化及其成因的重要手段。经过二十多年的发展，目前国家气候中心建立了一套多时间、多空间尺度的气候系统监测诊断业务系统，并且在业务应用中不断发展和完善。同时，加强了关键异常信号及其对我国气候异常的影响机理的研究，在海温、冰雪、土壤温湿度、大气低频振动、北极涛动、季风、平流层异常等对我国气候影响的监测诊断等方面提出一些新理论、新技术和新方法，并在业务中得以应用。本文回顾了近20年来我国气候监测诊断业务的发展历程，介绍了我国气候监测诊断业务的技术现状，重点总结了近些年来在实时气候监测诊断业务中发展和应用的一些新技术和气候异常机理。Abstract: Climate monitoring and diagnosis is an important method to know about the changes of climate system and their causes, playing an important role in climate operation. The history and current status of the climate monitoring and diagnosis operation in China are reviewed and some new technologies, methods and mechanisms developed and applied in operation in recent years are introduced.In 1990, the operational system of monthly climate monitoring is established in China for the first time. After the developments of more than 20 years, the climate monitoring and diagnosis operation in China makes great progresses in the aspects of theory, method, technology, and operational system, which go through the stages from the simple analysis of station observations to the monitoring of the multiple layers of climate system and the dynamic diagnosis of climate anomalies.At present, a set of climate monitoring and diagnosis operation system on multiple temporal and spatial-scales is set up and continuously improved, and some new theories, technologies, and approaches are promoted and applied. In the aspect of atmospheric circulation, besides basic characteristic variables related to height, wind and so on, the monitoring and diagnosis operational products of stratospheric process, northeast cold vortex, Walker circulation, Hadley circulation, water vapor transportation are also developed. Furthermore, the monitoring and diagnosis operation of the extreme weather and climate events over China and the world is gradually set up and improved. In the aspect of ocean, besides the physical system in the tropical and extra-tropical ocean and atmosphere related to ENSO, the monitoring and diagnosis technologies and products in light of the sea temperature anomalies of Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean with the major modes of oceanic and atmospheric system are developed. In the aspect of sea ice and snow, the monitoring and diagnosis technologies and products of the Antarctic and Arctic sea ice concentration and days as well as snow days, snow areas, and snow depths of the Northern Hemisphere and China are developed and set up. In the aspect of land surface, the monitoring technologies and products on the basis of station observations of soil temperature and humidity are developed. At the same time, the research is enhanced on the key factors, such as atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice, snow and so on, as well as the mechanisms how they influence climate anomalies in China.
-
[1] WMO.Outline Plan and Basis for the World Climate Programme 1980-1983.WMO No.540, 1980. [2] 王绍武.气候诊断与预测研究进展:1991—2000.北京:气象出版社, 2001. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYQY201603027.htm [3] Ren F, Cui D, Gong Z, et al.An objective identification technique for regional extreme events.J Climate, 2012, 25:7015-7027. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00489.1 [4] Shi N, Zhu Q G.An abrupt change in the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon index and its relationship with temperature and precipitation over East China.Int J Climatol, 1996, 16:757-764. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088 [5] 祝从文, 何金海, 吴国雄.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系.气象学报, 2000, 58(4):391-402. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2000.042 [6] 张庆云, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流.气象学报, 2003, 61(4):559-568. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB200305005.htm [7] Li J P, Zeng Q C.A unified monsoon index.Geophys Res Lett, 2002, 29:1274. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jianping_Li7/publication/260084599_A_unified_monsoon_index/links/00b4953227ffa0ee9e000000.pdf [8] Wu S S, Liang J Y.An index of South China Sea summer monsoon intensity and its characters.Chin J Trop Meteor, 2001, 17:337-344. [9] 李晓燕, 翟盘茂.ENSO事件指数与指标研究.气象学报, 2000, 58(1):102-109. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2000.010 [10] 郭艳君, 翟盘茂.OLR资料在ENSO监测中的应用.热带气象学报, 2003, 19(1):101-106. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200301013.htm [11] 贾小龙, 李崇银.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响.地球物理学报, 2005, 48(6):1238-1249. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX200506003.htm [12] 左金清, 李维京, 任宏利, 等.春季北大西洋涛动与东亚夏季风年际关系的转变及其可能成因分析.地球物理学报, 2012, 55(2):384-395. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX201202002.htm [13] 郭艳君, 李威, 陈乾金.北半球积雪监测诊断业务系统.气象, 2004, 30(11):24-27. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0526.2004.11.005 [14] 任福民, 袁媛, 孙丞虎, 等.近30年ENSO研究进展回顾.气象科技进展, 2012, 2(3):17-24. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKZ201203005.htm [15] Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M.Impact of El Nino on the East Asian monsoon:A diagnostic study of the 86/87 and 91/92 events.J Meteor Soc Japan, 1996, 74:49-62. doi: 10.2151/jmsj1965.74.1_49 [16] 金祖辉, 陶诗言.ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究.大气科学, 1999, 23(6):663-672. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199906003.htm [17] 陈文.El Nino和La Nina事件对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响.大气科学, 2002, 26(5):595-610. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200205001.htm [18] Yuan Y, Yang S.Impacts of different types of El Nio on the East Asian climate:Focus on ENSO cycles.J Climate, 2012, 25:7702-7722, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00576. [19] Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M.A diagnostic study of the impact of El Nino on the precipition in China.Adv Atm Sci, 1999, 16(2):229-241. doi: 10.1007/BF02973084 [20] 晏红明, 袁媛.印度洋海温异常的特征及其影响.北京:气象出版社, 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYQY201603027.htm [21] 肖子牛, 晏红明, 李崇银.印度洋地区异常海温的偶极振荡与中国降水及温度的关系.热带气象学报, 2002, 18(4):335-344. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200204005.htm [22] 袁杰, 魏凤英, 巩远发, 等.关键区海温年代际异常对我国东部夏季降水影响.应用气象学报, 2013, 24(3):268-277. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20130302 [23] 武炳义, 苏京志, 张人禾.秋-冬季节北极海冰对冬季西伯利亚高压的影响.科学通报, 2011, 56(27):2335-2343. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB201127011.htm [24] Wu Bingyi, Zhang Renhe, Rosanne D'Arrigo, et al.The relationship between winter sea ice and summer atmospheric circulation over Eurasia.J Climate, 2013, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00524.1. [25] Liu Jiping, Judith A C, Wang Huijun, et al.Impact of Declining Arctic Sea Ice on Winter Snowfall.Proc Natl Acad Sci, 2012, doi: 10.1073/PNAS.1114910109. [26] 黄菲, 高聪晖.东亚冬季气温的年际变化特征及其与海温和海冰异常的关系.中国海洋大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 42(9):7-14. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QDHY201209003.htm [27] 李维京.现代气候业务.北京:气象出版社, 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYQY201603027.htm [28] 赵溱.欧亚大陆雪盖与东亚夏季风.气象, 1984, 10(7):27-29. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1984.07.006 [29] Yang Song, Xu Lizhang.Linkage between Eurasian winter snow cover and regional Chinese summer rainfall.Int J Climate, 1994, 14:739-750. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088 [30] 陈兴芳, 宋文玲.欧亚和青藏高原冬春积雪与我国夏季降水关系的分析和预测应用.高原气象, 2000, 19(2):215-223. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200002010.htm [31] 李栋梁, 王春学.积雪分布及其对中国气候影响的研究进展.大气科学学报, 2011, 34(5):627-636. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX201105014.htm [32] 王晓婷, 郭维栋, 钟中, 等.中国东部土壤温度、湿度变化的长期趋势及其与气候背景的联系.地球科学进展, 2009, 24(2):181-191. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200902012.htm [33] 孙丞虎, 李维京, 张祖强, 等.淮河流域土壤湿度异常的时空分布特征及其与气候异常关系的初步研究.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(2):129-138. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20050217 [34] 王万秋.土壤温湿异常对短期气候影响的数值模拟试验.大气科学, 1991, 15(5):115-123. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199105013.htm [35] 丁莉, 李清泉, 刘芸芸.热带大气ISO在几种再分析资料中的对比分析.应用气象学报, 2013, 24(3):314-322. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20130307 [36] 汤懋苍, 张建.季平均3.2 m地温距平场在汛期预报中的应用.高原气象, 1994, 13(2):178-187. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX402.008.htm [37] Zhang R, Zuo Z.Impact of spring soil moisture on surface energy balance and summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in East China.J Clim, 2011, 24:3309-3322. doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4084.1 [38] 李崇银.大气季节内振荡研究的新进展.自然科学进展, 2004, 14(7):734-741. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKJZ200407004.htm [39] 琚建华, 钱诚, 曹杰.东亚夏季风的季节内振荡研究.大气科学, 2005, 29(2):187-194. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200502002.htm [40] Ding Yihui.Seasonal March of the East-Asia Summer Monsoon//Chang C P.East Asian Monsoon.Singapore:World Scientific Publishing, 2004:562. [41] Wheeler M C, Hendon H H.An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index:Development of an index for monitoring and prediction.Mon Wea Rev, 2004, 132:1917-1932. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2 [42] 贾小龙, 袁媛, 任福民, 等.热带大气季节内振荡 (MJO) 实时监测预测业务.气象, 2012, 38(4):425-431. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.04.006 [43] Jia X L, Chen L J, Ren F M, et al.Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China.Adv Atmos Sci, 2011, 28(3):521-533. doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9118-z [44] 王遵娅, 丁一汇.夏季长江中下游旱涝年季节内振荡气候特征.应用气象学报, 2008, 19(6):710-715. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20080610 [45] Ding Y H.Summer monsoon rainfall in China.J Meteor Soc Japan, 1992, 70:373-396. doi: 10.2151/jmsj1965.70.1B_373 [46] 张庆云, 陶诗言.夏季东亚热带和副热带季风与中国东部汛期降水.应用气象学报, 1998, 9(增刊):18-23. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX8S1.002.htm [47] 刘芸芸, 丁一汇.西北太平洋夏季风对中国长江流域夏季降水的影响.大气科学, 2009, 33(6):1225-1237. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200906010.htm [48] 柳艳菊, 丁一汇.亚洲夏季风爆发的基本气候特征分析.气象学报, 2007, 65(4):511-526. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2007.048 [49] 吴尚森, 梁建茵, 李春晖.南海夏季风强度与我国汛期降水的关系.热带气象学报, 2003, 19(增刊):25-36. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX2003S1002.htm [50] 毛贤敏, 曲晓波.东北冷涡过程的能量学分析.气象学报, 1997, 55(2):230-238. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1997.024 [51] 孙立, 郑秀雅, 王琪.东北冷涡的时空分布特征及其与东亚大型环流系统之间的关系.应用气象学报, 1994, 5(3):297-303. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19940353&flag=1 [52] 王丽娟, 何金海, 司东, 等.东北冷涡过程对江淮梅雨期降水的影响机制.大气科学学报, 2010, 33(1):89-97. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX201001012.htm [53] Gong D, Wang S, Zhu J.East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation.Geophys Res Lett, 2001, 28:2073-2076. doi: 10.1029/2000GL012311 [54] 龚道溢, 王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响.地理学报, 2003, 58(4):559-568. doi: 10.11821/xb200304010 [55] Li Q, Yang S, Kousky V E, et al.Features of cross-Pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitation.Int J Climatol, 2005, 25:1675-1696. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088 [56] 杨辉, 李崇银.冬季北极涛动的影响分析.气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(4):395-404. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQJZ200202008.htm [57] 魏凤英.气候变暖背景下我国寒潮灾害的变化特征.自然科学进展, 2008, 18(3):289-295. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKJZ200803007.htm [58] 钱维宏, 张玮玮.我国近46年来的寒潮时空变化与冬季增暖.大气科学, 2007, 31(6):1266-1278. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200706022.htm [59] 胡永云.关于平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的研究进展.地球科学进展, 2006, 21(7):713-720. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200607008.htm [60] 向纯怡, 何金海, 任荣彩.2007/2008年冬季平流层环流异常及平流层-对流层耦合特征.地球科学进展, 2009, 24(3):338-348. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200903014.htm [61] Wang L, Chen W.Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polar vortex and the cold December 2009.Geophys Res Lett, 2010, 37:L09707.doi: 10.1029/2010GL042659. [62] 卢楚翰, 王蕊, 秦育婧, 等.平流层异常下传对2009年12月北半球大范围降雪过程的影响.大气科学学报, 2012, 35(3):304-310. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX201203004.htm [63] 张人禾.气候观测系统及其相关的关键问题.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(6):705-710. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20060608 [64] 张人禾, 殷永红, 李清泉, 等.利用ARGO资料改进ENSO和我国夏季降水气候预测.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(5):538-547. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20060511 [65] 张人禾, 朱江, 许建平, 等.ARGO大洋观测资料的同化及其在短期气候预测和海洋分析中的应用.大气科学, 2013, 37(2):411-424. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12308 -
下载:
图(1)
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 4096
- HTML全文浏览量: 1208
- PDF下载量: 1819
- 被引次数: 0
