基于大气层结和雷暴演变的闪电和降水关系

王婷波; 郑栋; 张义军; 姚雯; 张文娟

基于大气层结和雷暴演变的闪电和降水关系

1.
成都信息工程学院，成都 610225
2.
中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081

资助项目:

中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项 2013Z006

国家自然科学基金项目 41030960

国家自然科学基金项目 41005006

国家科技支撑计划项目 2008BAC36B04

详细信息

通信作者:
张义军, email: zhangyj@cams.cma.gov.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-02-05
- 修回日期: 2013-09-16
- 刊出日期: 2014-01-31

Relationship Between Lightning and Precipitation Based on Classification of Atmospheric Stratification and Development of Thunderstorm

1.
Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 选取2006—2008年发生在北京及其周边地区的28次雷暴过程，基于大气不稳定度参数和雷达参量对雷暴过程进行分类，分析了不同分类条件下的总闪电活动 (SAFIR3000三维闪电定位系统观测) 和对流降水 (雷达反演) 的关系。结果表明：整体而言，总闪对应降水量的平均值为1.92×10⁷ kg·fl^-1。依据对流有效位能和抬升指数对雷暴进行分类的分析表明，较强的不稳定状态对应了较小的总闪对应降水量，同时总闪频次和对流降水量的相关性更好。基于雷达特征参数的分类分析表明，总闪对应降水量在对流运动较弱情况下最小，其次是对流运动较强的情况下，而对流运动适中时最大。
- 闪电;
- 降水;
- 大气层结;
- 雷达参量
Abstract: A total of 28 thunderstorms occurring in and around Beijing area from 2006 to 2008 are picked to investigate the relationship between total lightning (observed by SAFIR3000) and convective precipitation (by radar inversion). These cases are classified according to parameters of the atmospheric stratification where they are generated and the reflectivity of radar. The quantitative results can provide a reference for the applications of lightning data on severe weather warning and precipitation estimation. The lightning forecast can also be improved by assimilating the relationship between the hydrometeors and the lightning activities to the numerical prediction models. The analysis can extend the application field of the lightning data.The results show that the average convective rain yields per flash is 1.92×10⁷ kg·fl^-1 on the whole, while the linear correlation coefficient between the total lightning frequency and convective precipitation is 0.584. Total lightning frequency (expressed by F with the time space being 6 min) can be used to calculate the amount of convective precipitation with the equation R=(2.813×10⁸)+(4.570×10⁶)F. A total of 28 thunderstorms are classified according to the convective available potential energy (E_CAP) and lifting index I_L of the atmospheric stratification where they are generated. It is explored that strong instability of atmospheric stratification tends to be associated with smaller precipitation and more pronounced correlation between total lightning and precipitation. Of which, the classification of E_CAP no less than 1600 J·kg^-1 has the correlation coefficient of 0.837, the total lightning frequency can be used to calculate the amount of convective precipitation with the equation of R=(1.620×10⁸)+(5.478×10⁶)F. While the classification of I_L no less than 4 K has the correlation coefficient of 0.853, the total lightning frequency can be used to calculate the area of the amount of convective precipitation with the equation of R=(1.530×10⁸)+(6.276×10⁶)F. Another three parameters calculated from radar reflectivity, i.e., maximum height of 20 dBZ reflectivity, maximum reflectivity at 12 km level, and volume ratio of the reflectivity larger than 30 dBZ above 0℃ to the reflectivity larger than 40 dBZ above 0℃, in terms of their radar volume scans. The most pronounced relationships between lightning and precipitation occur in the classification of H_{20 dBZ} < 11.5 km, 25 dBZ ≤f_{12 km} < 35 dBZ, and V_40/30 < 0.39, when the correlation coefficients are 0.804, 0.609 and 0.750, respectively. The linear correlation between lightning and precipitation show obvious differences in different classifications. The fitting equations in different classifications are revealed, which will provide references for the application of relationships between lightning and precipitation according to the characteristics of thunderstorm processes.
- lightning;
- precipitation;
- atmospheric stratification;
- radar parameters

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图 1 SAFIR3000三维闪电定位系统子站和雷达站分布

Fig. 1 The distribution of SAFIR3000 total lightning location system and radar station

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图 2 雷暴过程总闪频次和对流降水量关系

Fig. 2 The relationship between total lightning frequency and convective precipitation

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表 1 不同E_CAP分类下总闪对应降水量的统计值

Table 1 Statistics of rain yields per flash based on the classification of E_CAP

E_CAP /(J·kg^-1)	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	累积百分比分布/(10⁶ kg·fl^-1)
E_CAP /(J·kg^-1)	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	5%	95%	25%	75%
E_CAP < 1000	1.84	6.81	1.98	2.37	59.90	7.41	25.50
1000≤E_CAP < 1600	6.80	11.50	2.02	3.08	66.00	5.74	23.10
E_CAP≥1600	5.00	5.37	1.50	3.13	37.60	7.08	19.70

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表 2 不同E_CAP分类下总闪频次和对流降水量的线性拟合关系

Table 2 Linear fitting between total lightning frequency and convective precipitation based on the classification of E_CAP

E_CAP/(J·kg^-1)	相关系数	F检验	F_0.05	是否通过检验	回归方程
E_CAP < 1000	0.464	42.258	3.89	是	R=(3.649×10⁸)+(3.413×10⁶)F
1000≤E_CAP<1600	0.505	41.371	3.92	是	R=(2.683×10⁸)+(4.448×10⁶)F
E_CAP≥1600	0.837	154.929	4.00	是	R=(1.620×10⁸)+(5.478×10⁶)F

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表 3 不同I_L分类下总闪对应降水量的统计值

Table 3 Statistics of rain yields per flash based on the classification of I_L

I_L/K	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	累积百分比分布/(10⁶ kg·fl^-1)
I_L/K	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	5%	95%	25%	75%
I_L < 0	35.80	9.09	2.26	4.55	66.90	8.73	22.80
0≤I_L<4	1.84	8.66	1.98	2.73	63.80	5.80	25.30
I_L≥4	4.08	6.25	1.76	2.16	52.00	6.81	22.30

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表 4 不同I_L分类下总闪频次和对流降水量的线性拟合关系

Table 4 Linear fitting between total lightning frequency and convective precipitation based on the classification of I_L

I_L/K	相关系数	F检验	F_0.05	是否通过检验	回归方程
I_L < 0	0.719	44.971	4.08	是	R=(3.580×10⁸)+(3.375×10⁶)F
0≤I_L < 4	0.493	57.758	3.94	是	R=(3.377×10⁸)+(4.469×10⁶)F
I_L≥4	0.853	328.337	3.92	是	R=(1.530×10⁸)+(6.276×10⁶)F

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表 5 不同H_{20 dBZ}分类总闪对应降水量的统计值

Table 5 Statistics of rain yields per flash based on the classification of H_{20 dBZ}

H_{20 dBZ}/km	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	累积百分比分布/(10⁶ kg·fl^-1)
H_{20 dBZ}/km	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	5%	95%	25%	75%
H_{20 dBZ} < 11.5	1.84	17.30	2.09	0.94	65.20	4.74	22.30
11.5≤H_{20 dBZ} < 13.5	17.00	10.00	2.83	4.80	78.50	10.70	38.20
H_{20 dBZ}≥13.5	32.10	6.81	2.14	4.94	58.60	8.05	30.90

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表 6 不同H_{20 dBZ}分类总闪频次和对流降水量的线性拟合关系

Table 6 Linear fitting between total lightning frequency and convective precipitation based on the classification of H_{20 dBZ}

H_{20 dBZ}/km	相关系数	F检验	F_0.05	是否通过检验	回归方程
H_{20 dBZ} < 11.5	0.804	174.041	3.95	是	R=(1.168×10⁸)+(6.133×10⁶)F
11.5≤H_{20 dBZ} < 13.5	0.588	43.830	3.97	是	R=(2.522×10⁸)+(6.572×10⁶)F
H_{20 dBZ}≥ 13.5	0.663	71.500	3.95	是	R=(3.377×10⁸)+(4.893×10⁶)F

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表 7 不同f_{12 km}分类总闪对应降水量的统计值

Table 7 Statistics of rain yields per flash based on the classification of f_{12 km}

f_{12 km}/dBZ	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	累积百分比分布/(10⁶ kg·fl^-1)
f_{12 km}/dBZ	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	5%	95%	25%	75%
f_{12 km} < 25	1.84	4.81	1.43	1.29	45.20	5.89	39.40
25≤f_{12 km} < 35	37.00	7.85	2.26	4.65	60.60	9.05	30.80
f_{12 km}≥35	14.10	9.36	1.91	2.28	65.70	6.11	21.40

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表 8 不同f_{12 km}分类下总闪频次和对流降水量的线性拟合关系

Table 8 Linear fitting between total lightning frequency and convective precipitation based on the classification of f_{12 km}

f_{12 km}/dBZ	相关系数	F检验	F_0.05	是否通过检验	回归方程
f_{12 km} < 25	0.597	54.879	3.95	是	R=(1.302×10⁸)+(5.988×10⁶)F
25≤f_{12 km} < 35	0.609	66.011	3.93	是	R=(2.749×10⁸)+(5.704×10⁶)F
f_{12 km}≥35	0.375	14.518	3.96	是	R=(5.360×10⁸)+(1.912×10⁶)F

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表 9 不同V_40/30分类下总闪对应降水量的统计值

Table 9 Statistics of rain yeilds per flash based on the classification of V_40/30

V_40/30	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	累积百分比分布/(10⁶ kg·fl^-1)
V_40/30	最小值 /(10⁵ kg·fl^-1)	最大值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	算术平均值 /(10⁷ kg·fl^-1)	5%	95%	25%	75%
V_40/30 < 0.39	1.84	6.11	1.52	1.25	48.70	5.74	19.50
0.39≤V_40/30 < 0.48	22.40	5.57	1.58	3.72	36.20	7.25	21.20
V_40/30≥0.48	18.10	9.09	2.56	3.59	68.90	7.78	39.90

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表 10 不同V_40/30分类下总闪频次和对流降水量的线性拟合关系

Table 10 Linear fitting between total lightning frequency and convective precipitation based on the classification of V_40/30

V_40/30	相关系数	F检验	F_0.05	是否通过检验	回归方程
V_40/30 < 0.39	0.750	154.374	3.92	是	R=(5.889×10⁷)+(9.230×10⁶)F
0.39≤V_40/30 < 0.48	0.596	54.102	3.97	是	R=(3.133×10⁸)+(4.399×10⁶)F
V_40/30≥0.48	0.663	71.500	3.95	是	R=(4.289×10⁸)+(3.945×10⁶)F

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基于大气层结和雷暴演变的闪电和降水关系

通信作者:
张义军, email: zhangyj@cams.cma.gov.cn

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Relationship Between Lightning and Precipitation Based on Classification of Atmospheric Stratification and Development of Thunderstorm

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留言板

基于大气层结和雷暴演变的闪电和降水关系

通信作者: 张义军, email: zhangyj@cams.cma.gov.cn

计量

出版历程

Relationship Between Lightning and Precipitation Based on Classification of Atmospheric Stratification and Development of Thunderstorm

计量

出版历程

目录

通信作者:
张义军, email: zhangyj@cams.cma.gov.cn