设为首页
加入收藏
Hydrometeorology Forecast System of the Danjiangkou Basins in Hanjiang
-
摘要: 汉江丹江口流域水文气象预报系统在GIS技术的支持下，以水文气象监测网、定量降水估算、定量降水预报、洪水预报技术为基础，通过雷达估算降水技术、中尺度数值模式预报技术获取高时空分辨率的降水信息输入水文模型来进行水文气象预报。以Web形式为基础的汉江丹江口流域水文气象预报系统平台在2010年7月以及2011年9月汉江丹江口两次洪水过程中及时、准确地显示了流域实况降水、预报降水，准确地预报了洪水入库过程。目前系统已成功移植到三峡区间、清江水布垭、淮河王家坝、漳河水库等流域开展汛期试验与服务，取得了较好的应用效果。Abstract: The modern meteorological service technology development, especially quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast technology, makes it possible to improve the hydrological meteorological forecast service. Based on real-time hydrological and meteorological monitoring, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF), real-time flood forecast technique, hydrometeorology forecast system of the Danjiangkou Basins in Hanjiang applies high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data in hydrological model to carry out the real-time hydrometeorology forecast. Adopting the browser/client/server (B/C/S) three-layer structure, the rainfall monitoring, radar quantitative precipitation estimation, numerical forecast precipitation, flood forecast, hydrology and other product information are processed on client/server (C/S) system, and then the products can be displayed on the browser side. GIS technology is used to define the basin boundary and extract the river system based on the DEM data, and then to define the place and water in basin, to complete the digital work of basin basic information. Second, precipitation information, basin actual observation, radar estimation, model forecast precipitation products are processed with some clipping algorithm and basin geography information, and input into the hydrological model. Third, to construct basin hydrological forecast model based on basin geography climate characteristics, the Xinanjiang Hydrological Model is adopted to make the real time flood forecast, and the data files are stored in specified directory for database calling. Finally, the Asp.Net (C#) 4.0 is adopted to develop system display platform, including the display for basin overview, graphics products of basin actual monitoring, radar QPE, model QPF, hydrological forecast and monitor products. The completed system platform can achieve the hydrological meteorological information monitoring and forecasting. During the two flood processes in July of 2010 and September of 2011, the precipitation observed and forecasted is given and displayed timely and accurately, the flood process curve is also forecasted accurately. Nowadays, the system has been successfully transplanted to the Three Gorges, Qingjiang Shuibuya Reservoir, Huaihe Wangjiaba, the Zhanghe Basins, and has carried out flood tests and services, achieving good effects.
-
Key words:
- the Danjiangkou Basins in Hanjiang;
- QPE;
- QPF;
- hydrological forecasting
-
图 3 2010年7月洪水过程丹江口水库流域实况和预报降水
(a)18日03：00实况小时降水量，(b)18日03：00雷达估算小时降水量，(c)17日00:00—18日00:00 24 h实况降水, (d)18日03:00—20日15:00 60 h AREM模式预报降水
Fig. 3 he observed and forecasted precipitation of the Danjiangkou Basins in flood process in July 2010
(a)1-h observed precipitation at 0300 BT 18 July 2010, (b)1-h radar quantitative precipitation estimation at 0300 BT 18 July 2010, (c)24-h observed accumulated precipitation from 0000 BT 17 July to 0000 BT 18 July in 2010, (d)60-h AREM precipitation forecast from 0300 BT 18 July to 1500 BT 20 July in 2010
图 4 2010年7月洪水过程丹江口水库流域水文预报、监测信息
(a)18日03:00—21日03:00丹江口水库入库预报流量, (b)16—30日08:00丹江口水库水位, (c)16—30日丹江口水库入库实况流量
Fig. 4 The hydrological forecast and observation of the Danjiangkou Basins in flood process in July 2010
(a)72-h flood forecast at 0300 BT 18 July 2010, (b) water-level observation from 16 July to 30 July in 2010, (c) flow observation from 16 July to 30 July in 2010
图 5 2011年9月洪水过程丹江口水库流域实况和预报降水
(a)18日03：00实况小时降水量，(b)18日03：00雷达估算小时降水量，(c)17日00：00—18日00：00实况降水，(d)18日03：00—20日15：00 60 h AREM模式预报降水
Fig. 5 The observed and forecasted precipitation of the Danjiangkou Basins in flood process in Sep 2011
(a)1-h observed precipitation at 0300 BT 18 Sep 2011, (b)1-h radar quantitative precipitation estimation at 0300 BT 18 Sep 2011, (c)24-h observed accumulated precipitation from 0000 BT 17 Sep to 0000 BT 18 Sep in 2011, (d)60-h AREM precipitation forecast from 0300 BT 18 Sep to 1500 BT Sep in 2011
图 6 2011年9月洪水过程丹江口水库水文预报、监测信息
(a)18日03:00—21日03:00丹江口水库入库流量预报, (b)16—30日08:00丹江口水库水位, (c)16—30日丹江口水库入库实况流量
Fig. 6 The hydrological forecast and observation of the Danjiangkou Basins in flood process in Sep 2011
(a)72-h flood forecast at 0300 BT 18 Sep 2010, (b) water-level observation from 16 Sep to 30 Sep in 2011, (c) flow observation from 16 Sep to 30 Sep in 2011
-
[1] 张顺利, 陶诗言.1998年夏季中国暴雨洪涝灾害的气象水文特征.应用气象学报, 2001, 12(4):442-457. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20010459&flag=1 [2] 卞洁, 李双林, 何金海.长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估.应用气象学报, 2011, 22(5):604-611. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20110511 [3] 刘建芬, 张行南, 唐增文, 等.中国洪水灾害危险程度空间分布研究.河海大学学报:自然科学版, 2004, 6:614-617. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HHDX200406004.htm [4] 张永华, 肖文名, 何婉文, 等.基于ArcGIS Server和VML的气象信息发布平台.应用气象学报, 2011, 22(4):498-504. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20110413 [5] 陈钻, 李海胜.新型台风海洋网络气象信息系统的设计与实现.应用气象学报, 2012, 23(2):245-250. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20120214 [6] 胡健伟, 刘志雨.中小河流山洪预警预报系统开发设计及应用.水文, 2011, 31(3):18-21. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SWZZ201103004.htm [7] 刘勇奎.高云.黄有群.一个有效的多边形裁剪算法.软件学报, 2003, 14(4):845-856. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RJXB200304018.htm [8] 沈艳, 冯明农, 张洪政, 等.我国逐日降水量格点化方法.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(3):279-286. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20100303 [9] 王亚强.等值线相关算法类库的开发与应用.气象科技, 2010, 38(4):478-483. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKJ201004017.htm [10] SL25-2000. 水文情报预报规范. 北京: 中华人民共和国水利部, 2000: 18-22. [11] 赵人俊.流域水文模拟:新安江模型与陕北模型.北京:水利电力出版社, 1984. [12] 宋霁云, 张利平, 李武阶, 等.水文模型参数优选方法比较与参数敏感性分析.水电能源科学, 2011, 29(4):25-28. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDNY201104007.htm [13] 彭涛, 宋星原, 殷志远, 等.雷达定量估算降水在水文模式汛期洪水预报中的应用试验.气象, 2010, 36(12):50-55. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.12.007 [14] 崔春光, 彭涛, 沈铁元, 等.定量降水预报与水文模型耦合的中小流域汛期洪水预报试验.气象, 2010, 36(12):56-61. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.12.008 [15] 殷志远, 彭涛, 王俊超, 等.基于AREM模式的贝叶斯洪水概率预报试验.暴雨灾害, 2012, 31(1):59-65. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HBQX201201009.htm [16] 彭涛, 李俊, 殷志远, 等.基于集合降水预报产品的汛期洪水预报试验.暴雨灾害, 2010, 29(3):274-278. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HBQX201003012.htm [17] 王莉莉, 陈德辉, 赵琳娜.GRAPES气象水文模式在一次洪水预报中的应用.应用气象学报, 2012, 23(3):274-284. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20120303&flag=1 [18] 张正礼, 王坚宁.Asp.Net 4.0从入门到精通.北京:清华大学出版社, 2011. -
下载:
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 2997
- HTML全文浏览量: 1145
- PDF下载量: 911
- 被引次数: 0
