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Comparative Analysis on the Applicability of Drought Indexes in the Huaihe River Basin
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摘要: 利用淮河流域河南、安徽、山东、江苏4省170个站1961—2010年逐日气温、降水以及土壤墒情和干旱灾情资料，从干旱年际变化、季节演变、空间分布、典型干旱过程诊断、不合理跳跃点以及与土壤墒情、干旱灾情相关性等方面，对比分析降水距平百分率 (Pa)、Z指数、标准化降水指数 (SPI)、相对湿润度指数 (MI)、综合气象干旱指数 (CI) 和改进的CI (CINew) 在淮河流域的适用性。结果表明：各干旱指数对淮河流域的典型旱年均有较好的诊断能力；在干旱季节演变及空间分布的诊断方面，Pa，MI，CI和CINew与实际较为吻合，而Z指数和SPI诊断效果较差；在典型干旱过程诊断以及不合理跳跃次数方面，CI和CINew更能刻画出干旱发生发展机制，而Pa，Z指数，SPI，MI效果较差；与土壤墒情和历史干旱灾情相关性方面，CI和CINew比Pa，Z指数，SPI，MI具有更好的相关性。即对于淮河流域的干旱监测诊断，CI和CINew要优于Pa，Z指数，SPI及MI，具有更好的适用性。Abstract: Based on daily temperature and precipitation data of 170 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010, as well as the soil moisture data and historical drought disaster information in the Huaihe River Basin, the applicability of drought indexes is analyzed. The indexes include the precipitation anomaly percentage (Pa), the Z index (Z), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the relative moisture index (MI), the compound drought index (CI), the improved CI (CINew) and so on. They are examined from the aspects of inter-annual variation, seasonal evolution, spatial distribution, diagnostic analysis of typical drought processes, unreasonable jumps, the relativity analysis of the soil moisture and drought disaster information. The following results can be reached: All of these drought indexes can be used to diagnose the typical drought years in the Huaihe River Basin effectively, including the year of 1966, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1986, 1988, 1997, 1999, 2001 and so on. When analyzing the seasonal evolution and spatial distribution, both Z index and SPI are not effective, while the diagnosis results of indexes such as Pa, MI, CI and CINew are relatively in consistency and accordant with the fact. As to the diagnoses of typical drought processes and unreasonable jumps, CI and CINew are more effective in describing the mechanism. Analysis on drought relevance to soil moisture and historical drought disaster information shows that CI and CINew have more stable relativity and higher correlation coefficients than Pa, Z index, SPI and MI.In conclusion, as to the monitoring and diagnosis of the drought in the Huaihe River Basin, the applicability of CI and CINew indexes are superior to indexes of Pa, Z index, SPI and MI. The drought is a very complex scientific problem, which is related with many factors such as underlying surface, crop, soil type, rainfall, evaporation and so on. The drought index can have better applicability only when it is built based on reasonable consideration of the occurrence and development mechanism of drought and various influencing factors.
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Key words:
- drought index;
- drought process;
- applicability;
- the Huaihe River Basin
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图 1 淮河流域气象站点分布
Fig. 1 The distribution of meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin
图 2 各干旱指数对应的干旱日数季节演变
Fig. 2 The seasonal evolution of drought days corresponding to the drought indexes
图 3 各干旱指数对应的干旱日数空间分布 (单位：d)
Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of drought days corresponding to the drought indexes (unit:d)
图 4 各干旱指数对应典型干旱过程诊断分析
Fig. 4 The diagnostic analysis of typical drought processes corresponding to the drought indexes
图 5 各干旱指数对应的干旱不合理跳跃次数
Fig. 5 The number of unreasonable jumps corresponding to the drought indexes
图 6 各干旱指数与土壤墒情相关分析
Fig. 6 The relevance between the soil moisture and the drought indexes
图 7 各干旱指数与干旱受灾面积和成灾面积的相关系数
Fig. 7 Correlations of the drought indexes to the disaster-affected and disaster area of drought
表 1 各干旱指数对应的干旱等级划分标准
Table 1 The division standard of drought grades corresponding to the drought indexes
干旱指数 干旱等级 无旱 轻旱 中旱 重旱 特旱 Pa/% (-40，+∞) (-60，-40] (-80，-60] (-95，-80] [-100，-95] Z指数 (-0.5，+∞) (-1.0，-0.5] (-1.5，-1.0] (-2.0，-1.5] (-∞，-2.0] SPI (-0.5，+∞) (-1.0，-0.5] (-1.5，-1.0] (-2.0，-1.5] (-∞，-2.0] MI (-0.4，+∞) (-0.65，-0.4] (-0.8，-0.65] (-0.95，-0.8] (-1.0，-0.95] CI (-0.6，+∞) (-1.2，-0.6] (-1.8，-1.2] (-2.4，-1.8] (-∞，-2.4] CINew (-0.6，+∞) (-1.2，-0.6] (-1.8，-1.2] (-2.4，-1.8] (-∞，-2.4] 
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表 2 代表站及典型干旱过程
Table 2 The representative stations and typical drought processes
代表站 干旱时段 枣庄站 1966年8—12月 宿迁站 1968年2—6月 寿县站 1978年4—11月 驻马店站 2001年3—7月
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