设为首页
加入收藏
Evaluation of BJ-RUC System for the Forecast Quality of Planetary Boundary Layer in Beijing Area
-
摘要: 以北京市观象台2010年8月、2011年8月每日3次 (08：00, 14：00, 20：00，北京时，下同) L波段探空秒间隔数据为实况，对BJ-RUC系统 (rapid updated cycle system for the Beijing area) 分析和预报边界层性能进行了初步评估。结果表明：BJ-RUC系统对北京地区夏季白天边界层的细致特征具有较好的预报能力，但也存在明显的系统性误差。08：00边界层偏冷; 14：00和20：00 1 km以下的边界层则显著偏暖, 边界层内明显偏湿。整体上模式对边界层内温度、湿度的预报误差均高于自由大气。该系统对北京地区边界层内早晨 (08：00) 从夜间山风向白天谷风环流过渡、午后 (14：00) 到日落后 (20：00)1500 m以下盛行西南偏南气流的日变化特征具有较强的预报能力。系统预报的14：00边界层顶高度与评估时段内实际对流边界层高度的变化趋势一致。但预报的对流边界层顶偏高，这与BJ-RUC系统采用YSU边界层参数化方案的垂直混合更强有关。Abstract: The performance of analyses and forecasts from BJ-RUC (Beijing Rapid Updated Cycling Analysis and Forecast System) are evaluated against the operational L-band radiosonde observations at Beijing Weather Observatory sounding station at 0800 BT, 1400 BT and 2000 BT during the 2-month period of August 2010 and August 2011. From the results, it can be found that in Beijing Area, the detailed structure of the boundary layer revealed by the very high vertical resolution L-band radiosonde observations during the daytime, is generally well predicted by the model. However, systematical bias is also significantly identified. For the temperature profile, WRF model is capable of forecasting the thin layer with smaller temperature lapse rate below 400 m, while the whole boundary layer is forecasted with cold bias and warm bias at 1400 BT and 2000 BT for the boundary layer below 1 km. In addition, significant wet biases are also identified from the analyses and forecasts within the boundary layer. Overall, there are much larger systematical biases for forecasts within planetary boundary layer (PBL) than those in free atmosphere.According to the L-band radiosonde observations, the prevailing PBL mountain breeze at night usually transits into the valley breeze in the morning (around 0800 BT), there after the SSW wind will be dominant in PBL below 1500 m during the afternoon (from 1400 BT to 2000 BT) in Beijing Area. The WRF model accurately predicts such kind of diurnal feature of PBL circulation, but the wind speed in the morning is under-predicted while over-predicted in the afternoon. The forecast performance for height of PBL at 1400 BT is also verified against those derived from radiosonde data. The forecasted daily variation tendency of the height fits well with the observation during the evaluation period. But more or less, WRF model will over-predict the height under the circumstances of clear sky and light-mist, which could be partially ascribed to the feature of too strong vertical mixing in Yongsei University (YSU) PBL scheme utilized in the model.
-
图 1 北京市观象台2010年8月和2011年8月边界层内平均温度与分析场和预报场的平均偏差及均方根误差
Fig. 1 Vertical profiles of mean temperature, bias and root mean square error of analysis, 3-h forecast and 6-h forecast in boundary layer of Beijing Weather Observatory in August 2010 and August 2011
图 2 北京市观象台2010年8月和2011年8月边界层内平均比湿与分析场和预报场的平均偏差及均方根误差
Fig. 2 Vertical profiles of mean mixing ratio, bias and root mean square error of analysis, 3-h and 6-h forecast in boundary layer of Beijing Weather Observatory in August 2010 and August 2011
图 3 2010年8月与2011年8月北京市观象台08：00不同高度风玫瑰图
(图中扇形半径代表该风向所占百分比，圆心处为0；每圈代表 5%)
Fig. 3 Wind rose map between different levels of Beijing Weather Observatory at 0800 BT in August 2010 and August 2011
(the radius of sector indicates the percentage for each wind direction, starting from the center as 0; each circle indicates 5%)
图 6 北京市观象台在2010年8月与2011年8月14：00边界层高度变化
Fig. 6 Variation of boundary layer height of Beijing Weather Observatory at 1400 BT in August 2010 and August 2011
-
[1] Hu M, Xue M.Impact of configurations of rapid intermittent assimilation of WSR-88D radar data for the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic thunderstorm case.Mon Wea Rev, 2007, 135:507-525. doi: 10.1175/MWR3313.1 [2] 胡小明, 刘树华.山丘地形的陆面过程及边界层特征的模拟.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(1):13-23. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20050103 [3] 佟华, 桑建国.北京海淀地区大气边界层的数值模拟研究.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(增刊):51-60. http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGKQ200110001010.htm [4] 卓嘎, 徐祥德, 陈联寿, 等.青藏高原边界层高度特征对大气环流动力学效应的数值试验.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(2):163-169. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20020221&flag=1 [5] 胡非, 洪钟祥, 雷孝恩.大气边界层和大气环境研究进展.大气科学, 2003, 27(4):712-728. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200304017.htm [6] Hong Song-You, Noh Yign, Dudhia Jimy.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes.Mon Wea Rev, 2006, 134:2318-2341. doi: 10.1175/MWR3199.1 [7] 陈敏, 范水勇, 郑祚芳, 等.基于BJ-RUC系统的临近探空及其对强对流发生潜势预报的指示性能初探.气象学报, 2011, 69(1):181-194. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2011.016 [8] 仲跻芹, 陈敏, 范水勇, 等.AMDAR资料在北京数值预报系统中的同化应用.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(1):19-28. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20100103 [9] 李佳英, 俞小鼎, 王迎春.用探空资料检验中尺度数值模式对强对流天气的诊断分析能力.气象, 2006, 32(7):13-17. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.07.002 [10] 漆梁波, 曹晓岗, 夏立, 等.上海区域要素客观预报方法效果检验.气象, 2007, 33(3):9-18. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200709001.htm [11] 陈炯, 王建捷.北京地区夏季边界层结构日变化的高分辨模拟对比.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(4):403-411. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20060403 [12] 陈炯, 王建捷.边界层参数化方案对降水预报的影响.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(增刊):11-17. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX2006S1001.htm [13] 黄泓, 李刚, 谭言科, 等. WRF3. 0模式中边界层参数化方案对暴雨预报的影响//第26届中国气象学会年会灾害天气事件的预警, 预报及防灾减灾分会场论文集. 2009: 1342-1356. [14] 杨玉华, 徐祥德, 翁永辉, 等.北京城市边界层热岛的日变化周期模拟.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(1):61-68. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030107&flag=1 [15] 孙继松, 王华, 王令, 等.城市边界层过程在北京2004年7月10日局地暴雨过程中的作用.大气科学, 2006, 30(2):221-234. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200602004.htm [16] 徐阳阳, 刘树华, 胡非, 等.北京城市化发展对大气边界层特性的影响.大气科学, 2009, 33(4):859-867. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200904019.htm [17] 胡小明, 刘树华, 梁福明, 等.北京区域近地边界层特征数值模拟.北京大学学报:自然科学版, 2005, 41(4):514-522. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BJDZ200504003.htm [18] 李伟, 李书严, 陶士伟, 等.L波段高空气象探测系统性能评估.仪器仪表学报, 2008, 29(4):732-735. http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-YQYB200806003189.htm [19] 周毓荃, 欧建军.利用探空数据分析云垂直结构的方法及其应用研究.气象, 2010, 36(11):50-58. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.11.008 [20] 杨湘婧, 徐祥德, 陈宏尧, 等.L波段探空高分辨率廓线中近地层信息分析及相关模型.气象, 2011, 37(12):1504-1510. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.12.005 [21] 陶士伟, 陈晓红, 龚建东.L波段探空仪温度资料误差分析.气象, 2006, 32(10):46-51. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.10.007 [22] Turner D D, Lesht B M, Clough S A, et al.Dry bias and variability in Vaisala RS80-H radiosondes:The ARM Experience.J Atmos Oceanic Technol, 2003, 20:117-132. doi: 10.1175/1520-0426(2003)020<0117:DBAVIV>2.0.CO;2 [23] Nakamura H, Seko H, Shoji Y, et al.Dry biases of humidity measurements from the Vaisala RS80-A and Meisei RS2-91 radiosondes and from ground-based GPS.気象集誌, 2004, 82:277-299. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240791971_Dry_Biases_of_Humidity_Measurements_from_the_Vaisala_RS80-A_and_Meisei_RS2-91_Radiosondes_and_from_Ground-Based_GPS [24] Rowe P M, Miloshevich L M, Turner D D, et al.Dry bias in Vaisala RS90 radiosonde humidity profiles over Antarctica.J Atmos Oceanic Technol, 2008, 25:1529-1541. doi: 10.1175/2008JTECHA1009.1 [25] 李炬, 舒文军.北京夏季夜间低空急流特征观测分析.地球物理学报, 2008, 51(2):360-368. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX200802009.htm -
下载:
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 3892
- HTML全文浏览量: 1108
- PDF下载量: 1151
- 被引次数: 0
