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Numerical Simulation of Maize Yield Variation in Northeast China Under B2 Climate Change Scenario
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摘要: 采用区域气候模式PRECIS与东北玉米模拟模型相耦合的方法, 模拟了基准气候 (BS, 1961—1990年)、B2气候情景下考虑和不考虑CO2直接影响 (肥效作用) 未来40年 (2011—2050年) 我国东北玉米生育期和产量的变化状况。结果表明：不考虑CO2直接影响时，未来40年的平均变化情况以减产为主，幅度和熟性密切相关。在松嫩平原部分地区减产幅度最大，超过20%，但21世纪20年代的10年间东北玉米减产面积小，大部分地区表现为20%以内的增产。不考虑CO2直接影响，玉米产量变化是由气象条件变化引起的，温度过高和降水减少是玉米减产的主要原因; CO2直接影响对玉米产量的补偿效应不可忽视。与不考虑CO2直接影响的情况相比，未来40年平均的产量变化地理分布形势相似，但产量变化的幅度减小，减产幅度达到10%以上的范围缩小。研究气候变化对东北玉米产量的影响时，必须同时考虑CO2肥效作用和气象条件的变化, 在B2情景下未来40年内，各年代东北玉米生育期变化的地理分布相对比较稳定，和玉米熟性关系紧密。Abstract: In order to assess the variation of maize growth due to climate change, the maize yield model is upgraded and coupled with a regional climate model named PRECIS. The maize growth period and yield in Northeast China are simulated both under baseline (1961-1990) and B2 climate change scenario (2011-2050). The variations over the next 40 years are predicted by considering and not considering CO2 fertilizer efficiency (direct influence) separately. A direct influence module of CO2 is added into the maize growth model to make concentration of CO2 as an input variable. The upgraded model can simulate the yield and the increase of C4 crop, especially maize, with different concentration of CO2. And results fit the field experiments well. Furthermore, this model could distinguish fertilizer efficiency of photosynthesis and transpiration. Under B2 scenario, the temperature rises continuously and is higher than the baseline (1961-1990). The precipitation is less on the whole, and the radiation is more than the baseline. What calls for special attention is that the precipitation is more in the 2020s, which is favorable to maize growth. Without considering CO2 fertilizer efficiency, the production almost decreases, and the range of reduction closely relates to maturity. The reduction is biggest in parts of Songnen Plain, more than 20%. But in the 2020s, the production in most areas increases less than 20%. The variation is caused by weather condition, and the increasement of temperature and decreasement of precipitation should be the primary cause. As time goes on, the reduction is bigger and bigger. In the 2020s, the precipitation always is greater and beneficial to the maize growth. The CO2 fertilizer efficiency is important, and its compensation effects on the maize yield is significant. The distribution of the yield variation is similar, but the range is less. As the concentration of CO2 goes higher, the CO2 fertilizer efficiency is more and more significant. So, the CO2 fertilizer efficiency and weather condition must be considered. In the next 40 years, the variation of the maize growth period distributes relatively stable, and closely relates to the maturity. The growth period of mid-and early-maturation shorten obviously, but that of late-maturation elongate persistently. Changes of other three maturities are not obvious.The variation of yield and growth period has theoretical significance comparing with the average value of 1961-1990. But these results are based on the consideration of climate change barely, without social feedback and adaption to climate change, so the model needs improving in the future.
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Key words:
- climate change;
- CO2;
- fertilizer efficiency;
- maize yield
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图 1 CO2浓度相对于1990年CO2浓度的比值
Fig. 1 The specific value of CO2 concentration relative to the concentration in 1990
图 2 B2情景下2011—2050年我国东北玉米生长季内最高和最低气温 (a) 及降水量和太阳总辐射 (b) 相对于基准时段 (1961—1990年) 平均值的变化
Fig. 2 Under B2 Scenario, the variation of maximum temperature and minimum temperature (a), rainfall and total solar radiation (b) in growing season of maize from 2011 to 2050 relative to baseline (1961-1990)
图 4 不考虑CO2直接影响情况下东北地区B2气候变化情景下玉米产量相对变化 (单位：%)
Fig. 4 The variation of maize yields in B2N simulation (unit:%)
图 5 考虑CO2直接影响情况下东北地区B2气候变化情景下玉米产量相对变化率 (单位：%)
Fig. 5 The variation of maize yields in B2D simulation (unit:%)
图 6 东北地区B2气候变化情景下玉米生育期绝对变化量 (单位：d)
Fig. 6 The variation of growth period under SERS B2 simulation (unit:d)
表 1 不同CO2浓度下玉米产量及增幅
Table 1 Maize yields and their increasements under different CO2 concentrations
CO2浓度/(10-6μmol·L-1) PS试验 TS试验 PT试验 产量/(kg·hm-2) 增幅/% 产量/(kg·hm-2) 增幅/% 产量/(kg·hm-2) 增幅/% 350 15598.5 0.0 15713.9 0.7 15713.9 0.7 500 15779.8 1.2 16580.2 6.3 16759.4 7.4 700 15915.4 2.0 18547.7 18.9 19031.7 22.0 
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