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Risk Assessment and Temporal-spatial Distribution of Power Grid Lighting Disasters in Beijing
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摘要: 根据1996—2009年北京市逐日电网灾害资料分析了北京市电网雷害的发生规律, 结果显示:北京市电网雷害存在季节变化和日变化特征。结合同期气象观测站的雷暴日资料、北京市各区县的经济和人口密度特征提出了电网雷害概率、电网雷害频度、电网雷害密度、经济易损模数和生命易损模数作为北京市电网雷害风险评估指标。在此基础上，采用4级分区法对上述电网雷害易损性评估指标进行分级，并将北京市各区县按照5个电网雷害评估指标的所属等级值累加，得到电网雷害综合易损风险评估的评估系数。结果表明：北京地区电网雷害高风险区集中在北京城区中心附近，山区和山前迎风坡地带尽管电网雷害频次较高，但电网雷害风险却相对较低。Abstract:
Based on the daily power grid disaster data during 1996-2009 in Beijing, power grid disasters caused by the thunder and lighting (hereafter referred as power grid lighting disasters) are investigated. Results show that power grid lighting disasters present seasonal and daily variations in Beijing. Seasonal variation characteristic of power grid lighting disasters is mainly centralized from June to September, account for 88.4%. The highest appear in August, it can account for 32.9%. And daily variation characteristics analysis shows that from 1500 BT to 2100 BT is the high-incidence period. The analysis on spatial distribution of power grid lighting disasters indicates that there are more disasters in the north than those in the south. In terms of the same period of the daily thunderstorm data, economic and population characteristics, five indices are selected to evaluate the risk of power grid lighting disasters in Beijing, such as power grid lighting disaster probability, power grid lighting disaster frequency, power grid lighting disaster density, economic vulnerability module and life vulnerability module, respectively. And the different power grid lighting disaster evaluation indices are investigated. Four-grade classification methods are used to classify the evaluation indices in order to assess the risk of the power grid lighting disasters in Beijing. Firstly, the five indices are classified into four degrees with a given value as follow: The highest and the lowest degrees are 1.0 and 0.2, while the intermediate degrees are 0.8 and 0.5. Secondly, the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index of power grid lighting disasters is obtained by adding the degree values of five indices. Then the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index is also graded as four degrees, which are defined as the maximal damageable area, the high-damageable area, the medium damageable area and the lower damageable area. Finally, regional vulnerability zoning of the power grid lighting disasters are obtained by the average value of the power grid lighting disaster vulnerability evaluation indices. From the result of risk zoning, it can be concluded that the relatively higher power grid lighting disaster risk zones mainly locate in urban area of Beijing, while risks of mountain areas and their piedmont areas are relatively lower. Results of power grid lighting disaster vulnerability evaluation might be provided for the power grid lighting protection and disaster reduction proposal in Beijing.
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图 2 1996—2009年北京市各输电线路的电网雷害分布 (a) 年变化，(b) 日变化
Fig. 2 Distribution of power grid lighting disasters from 1996 to 2009 in Beijing (a) annual variation, (b) diurnal variation
表 1 北京市各区县电网雷害易损评估分析指标
Table 1 Power grid lightning disaster vulnerability assessment of various districts in Beijing
地名 电网雷害
概率/%电网雷害年
频次/次电网雷害密度/
(次·10-2 km-2)经济易损模数/
(亿·km-2)生命易损模数/
(万人·km-2)朝阳区 3.50 1.07 3.30 4.59 0.93 海淀区 3.52 1.07 3.48 5.34 0.95 丰台区 2.22 0.71 3.27 1.77 0.77 石景山区 1.12 0.36 5.93 2.49 0.97 延庆县 4.42 1.50 1.05 0.03 0.02 昌平区 8.84 2.79 2.90 0.25 0.11 怀柔区 3.91 1.36 0.90 0.07 0.02 密云县 8.41 3.07 1.93 0.05 0.02 平谷区 1.72 0.57 0.84 0.09 0.05 顺义区 2.65 0.71 0.98 0.52 0.09 门头沟区 4.54 1.50 1.45 0.05 0.02 房山区 4.82 1.43 1.01 0.12 0.05 大兴区 1.82 0.50 0.68 0.23 0.16 通州区 2.82 0.71 1.10 0.26 0.16 
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表 2 北京市电网雷害综合易损度区划表
Table 2 Vulnerability zoning of power grid lightning disaster in Beijing
易损度级别 区域 低易损区 大兴区、怀柔区、平谷区、延庆县、顺义区、门头沟区 中易损区 密云县、房山区、通州区、石景山区 高易损区 丰台区 极高易损区 朝阳区、海淀区、昌平区
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