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Inter-annual Variability of Winter Asia-Pacific Oscillation and Its Relationship with the East Asian Climate Anomalies
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摘要: 利用1948—2011年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和1951—2010年我国160站降水量资料，研究了冬季亚洲—太平洋区域的大气遥相关及其与东亚冬季风和降水的关系。结果表明：冬季在亚洲—西太平洋与中、东太平洋中低纬度对流层上层扰动温度之间存在类似于夏季的亚洲—太平洋涛动 (APO) 现象，即当东亚中低纬度对流层中、上层偏暖时，中东太平洋中低纬度对流层中上层温度偏冷，反之亦然。冬季APO可以反映冬季亚洲—太平洋东西向热力差异强度变化，与夏季相比，冬季APO遥相关在亚洲的中心位置略偏南、偏东，且冬季APO与大气环流关系与夏季也有所不同；当冬季APO指数偏高时，对流层上层东亚大槽位置偏西，而东亚热带地区的高压向北伸展，导致我国南方对流层为深厚的异常反气旋系统所控制，此时南方地区对流层低层盛行异常的偏东北气流，并伴随水汽辐散和异常下沉运动，南方降水偏少；冬季APO指数与ENSO有紧密联系。Abstract: Using 1948-2011 NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data and 1951-2010 precipitation data at 160 meteorological stations of China, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis and composite analysis methods, the winter (December, January and February) atmospheric teleconnection over the Asian-Pacific and its association with East Asian winter monsoon and precipitation are examined. Results show an Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) teleconnection in upper-tropospheric temperature disturbance between the Asian-western Pacific and the central-eastern Pacific region during winter, which is similar to the APO phenomenon during summer. When the mid-upper troposphere temperature in mid-lower latitudes of East Asia is warmer, it is colder in mid-lower latitudes of the central and eastern North Pacific, and vice versa. The APO reflects the variability of the zonal thermal contrast between Asia and North Pacific. Compared to summer, the Asian anomalous center of DJF APO is southward and eastward in position. DJF APO index does not show a significant linear trend. The power spectrum analysis shows that the APO index has the varying periods of 2-6 years. Corresponding to a higher APO index, geopotential height disturbance in mid-upper tropospheres is lower in mid-higher latitudes of East Asia and it is higher in mid-higher latitudes of central and eastern North Pacific. Also, there is a "seesaw" in lower latitudes between the Asian-western Pacific region and the central-eastern Pacific, but with a reversed phase comparing to that in higher latitudes. This anomalous feature in geopotential height in the upper troposphere indicates a westward long-wave trough in East Asia and a northward high pressure in the tropics of East Asia, with a deep anti-cyclonic anomaly over southern China. Wind anomalies of northeasterly prevail over southern China in the lower troposphere, with divergence anomalies of water vapor and downward motion anomalies in southern China. Accordingly, the local precipitation decreases. However, these relationships between DJF APO and atmospheric circulation are different from those during summer. Moreover, the APO index is highly correlated with ENSO as well.
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图 1 冬季北半球0°~60°N区域200~300 hPa平均T′距平场的EOF模态
(a) EOF1(方框分别代表东亚—西太平洋和中东太平洋区域)，(b) EOF2
Fig. 1 EOF modes of anomaly of December-January-February (DJF) 200-300 hPa mean T′ overthe Northern Hemisphere (0°-60°N) (a) EOF1(boxes denote Asian-western Pacific and central-eastern Pacific, respectively), (b) EOF2
图 2 标准化的冬季指数时间序列
(a) 冬季东亚—西太平洋和中东太平洋平均T′指数，(b) 冬季APO指数
Fig. 2 Standard time series of DJF indices
(a)T′ indices of Asian-western Pacific and central-eastern Pacific in winter, (b) DJF APO index
图 3 冬季APO指数回归的同期T′(灰色区域表示达到0.05显著性水平，黑色区域表示地形)
(a) 沿25°N的经度-高度垂直剖面，(b)250 hPa T′水平分布，(c) 表面气温
Fig. 3 Regressed T′ against DJF APO index (the grey denotes passing the test of 0.05 level, the black denotes the topography)
(a) longitude-height cross section along 25°N, (b)T′ at 250 hPa, (c) surface temperature
图 4 冬季APO高指数年和低指数年合成的冬季H′
(单位：dagpm，灰色区域代表达到0.05显著性水平，黑色区域代表地形)(a) 沿25°N的经度-高度剖面，(b) 沿115°E的纬度-高度剖面，(c)200 hPa H′水平分布
Fig. 4 Composite difference of winter mean H′ between high and low DJF APO indices
(the grey denotes passing the test of 0.05 level, the black denotes the topography)(a) longitude-height cross section along 25°N, (b) latitude-height cross section along 115°E, (c)H′ at 200 hPa
图 5 冬季APO高指数年和低指数年合成差值 (灰色区域代表达到0.05显著性水平，黑色区域代表地形)
(a)200 hPa风场，(b)850 hPa风场，(c) 海平面气压 (单位：hPa)，(d) 沿107.5°~120°E纬度-垂直环流差值剖面 (水平速度单位：m·s-1，垂直速度单位：10-2 Pa·s-1)
Fig. 5 Composite difference between the high and low DJF APO indices
(the grey denotes passing the test of 0.05 level, the black denotes the topography) (a)200 hPa wind, (b)850 hPa wind, (c) sea level pressure (unit:hPa), (d) latitude-height cross section along 107.5°-120°E (unit for horizontal wind is m·s-1, unit for vetical wind is 10-2 Pa·s-1)
图 6 冬季APO高和低指数年合成的差值 (灰色区域代表达到0.1显著性水平)
(a) 冬季总降水量 (单位：mm，圆圈代表 160站的分布，方框指示着南方地区)，(b) 表面气温 (单位：℃)
Fig. 6 Composite difference between the high and low DJF APO indices
(the grey denotes passing the test of 0.1 level) (a) winter total rainfall (unit:mm, dots denote 160 stations in China, the box denotes southern China), (b) surface air temperature (unit:℃)
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