设为首页
加入收藏
Response of Spring Maize Growth Stage to Climate Change in Northeast China over the Past 30 Years
-
摘要: 基于1981—2010年东北地区55个农业气象观测站发育期数据、16个气象站逐日气象资料，采用趋势变率、秩相关分析、主成分分析和结构方程模型等方法，分析了近30年东北春玉米关键发育期的变化特征，探讨了春玉米发育期对不同时间尺度气象因子的响应规律。结果表明：1981—2010年春玉米关键发育期 (播种期、抽雄期、成熟期) 均有延后趋势，大部分地区春玉米生长前期 (播种期—抽雄期) 日数减少，生长后期 (抽雄期—成熟期) 日数增加，全生育期日数增加。在绝大多数年份，春玉米播种期在温度适播期之后，成熟期在初霜日之前。近30年对东北春玉米生育期日数影响最大的气象要素为温度，主成分分析结果显示，年际尺度的升温、温度生长期的延长和作物生长期的高温对生育期日数影响显著；结构方程模型指出，作物生长期的最高温度和最低温度对生育期日数影响有间接效应，主导气象要素能够解释生育期日数变异的44%。全球变暖背景下，东北春玉米发育期变化是作物响应气候变化和农业生产适应气候变化的共同结果。Abstract: Northeast China is the main producing area of spring maize. Study on the response of spring maize growth stages to climate change has important significance for the agricultural production in Northeast China.Based on observations of spring maize at 55 agricultural meteorological stations, and daily meteorological data of 16 meteorological stations in Northeast China, combined with generally accepted indicators of agricultural meteorology, as well as the law of growth and development of spring maize, significant meteorological factors affecting the spring maize growth are determined at three time scales of inter-annual, potential growing season and crop growth stages. Variations of spring maize growth stages in Northeast China over the past 30 years are analyzed, using methods of trend rate, spearman correlation analysis, principal component analysis and structural equation modeling. Relationships between maize growth stages and climate change are explored. Finally, responses of spring maize growth stages to meteorological factors over the past 30 years are further analyzed at different time scales.The result shows that spring maize critical growth stages in Northeast China over the past 30 years are postponed. Compared to the stage of tasseling, delaying trends at sowing stage and maturation stage are obvious in most areas. The number of days decreases during the early maize growth stages, while both the late maize growth stages and growth stages extend. In most years, the sowing date of spring maize is later than suitable planting date, and the maturating date is earlier than the first frost date, reducing risks. Under climate warming, the late-maturating maize can be expanded in these areas in order to improve the utilization of thermal resource. Responses of spring maize growth stages to temperature factors are the most notable during the past 30 years.The result by principal component analysis shows that the increased temperature at the inter-annual timescale, the prolonged temperature growth period and the high temperature on the crop growth stages are more notable than other meteorological factors. While, in the structural equation modeling, effects of temperature factors on growth stages are partly indirect, and significant meteorological factors can explain 44% of variation in growth stages. Results deepen understanding effects of climate change on crop mechanism, and can be used as scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in the future.
-
图 1 关键发育期间隔日数年际变化
(a) 黑龙江省，(b) 吉林省，(c) 辽宁省，(d) 东北地区
Fig. 1 Interannual variation of number of critical growth stage interval days
(a) Heilongjiang Province, (b) Jilin Province, (c) Liaoning Province, (d) Northeast China
图 2 1981—2010年关键发育期间隔日数线性倾向率 (单位：d/a) 的空间分布
(空白区域为非玉米种植区)(a) 生长前期日数, (b) 生长后期日数, (c) 生育期日数
Fig. 2 The spatial distribution of linearity inclination rate of the number of critical growth stage interval days from 1981 to 2010
(the blank zone is none maize-growing area)(a) the number of early growth stage days, (b) the number of late growth stage days, (c) the number of growth stage days
图 3 东北春玉米播种期与日平均温度不低于10℃初日及成熟期与日平均温度不低于10℃终日、初霜日变化关系
Fig. 3 The relationship of sowing stage to the initial date no less than 10℃, and that of maturation stage to the final date no less than 10℃ with the first frost date about maize in Northeast China
图 4 东北春玉米生育期日数与主导气象要素的标准化结构方程模型
(图中要素均为标准化值，单向箭头表示回归，箭头旁数值为标准化回归系数；双向箭头表示相关，箭头旁数值为标准化相关系数)
Fig. 4 Standard structural equation modeling of the number of growth stage days of spring maize with significant meteorological factors in Northeast China
(factors are all standardized, one-way arrows stand for regression and values beside these arrows are standard regression coefficients, both-way arrows stand for correlativity and values beside these arrows are standard correlation coefficients)
表 1 东北春玉米发育期日序变化
Table 1 The day of year of spring maize growth stages in Northeast China
发育期 黑龙江省 吉林省 辽宁省 东北地区 平均值 趋势变率 平均值 趋势变率 平均值 趋势变率 平均值 趋势变率 播种 127 推后 119 极显著推后 118 极显著推后 120 极显著推后 出苗 143 显著提前 138 推后 132 推后 138 推后 三叶 150 推后 145 显著推后 138 推后 144 显著推后 七叶 167 提前 161 推后 155 推后 161 推后 拔节 185 提前 185 显著推后 177 极显著推后 183 显著推后 抽雄 204 极显著推后 204 推后 201 推后 203 极显著推后 开花 209 提前 207 推后 204 推后 207 推后 吐丝 212 推后 210 推后 207 推后 210 推后 乳熟 235 显著推后 234 极显著推后 232 极显著推后 234 极显著推后 成熟 263 极显著推后 263 极显著推后 259 极显著推后 262 极显著推后 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 东北地区代表站春玉米生育期日数与各尺度气象因子的相关系数
Table 2 Spearman correlation coefficients between the number of growth stage days of spring maize and different meteorological factors at typical stations in Northeast China
站点 年平均温度 温度生长期日数 日平均温度不低于10℃活动积温 平均温度 最高温度 最低温度 富裕 0.324 0.171 0.093 -0.461 -0.406 -0.544* 安达 0.083 0.010 -0.235 -0.594* -0.349 -0.666** 佳木斯 -0.041 -0.333 -0.412 -0.772** -0.710** -0.769** 白城 0.082 0.298 -0.038 -0.445* -0.248 -0.566** 尚志 0.429 0.181 0.039 -0.644** -0.575* -0.652** 长岭 0.166 0.207 -0.259 -0.726** -0.595** -0.749** 敦化 0.333 0.187 0.205 -0.352 -0.304 -0.259 阜新 -0.521 -0.248 -0.193 -0.622 -0.506 -0.561 梅河口 0.175 -0.324 -0.295 -0.608** -0.553** -0.704** 桦甸 0.352 -0.026 0.020 -0.365* -0.223 -0.374* 沈阳 -0.058 -0.180 -0.204 -0.715** -0.584** -0.826** 集安 0.154 0.052 0.026 -0.479** -0.312 -0.630** 绥中 0.309 0.052 0.264 -0.284 -0.215 -0.401* 岫岩 0.351 0.014 0.225 -0.334 -0.182 -0.289 宽甸 -0.130 -0.014 -0.410* -0.736** -0.705** -0.715** 庄河 -0.187 -0.216 -0.294 -0.752** -0.644** -0.707** 东北地区 0.236** 0.194** 0.159** -0.226** -0.214** -0.147** 注：*表示达到0.05显著性水平，**表示达到0.01显著性水平。
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] IPCC.Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report.Oslo:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. [2] 林而达, 许吟隆, 蒋金鹤, 等.气候变化国家评估报告 (Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应.气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(2):51-56. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200602001.htm [3] 赵俊芳, 杨晓光, 刘志娟.气候变暖对东北三省春玉米严重低温冷害及种植布局的影响.生态学报, 2009, 29(12):6544-6551. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2009.12.029 [4] 孙凤华, 吴志坚, 杨素英.东北地区近50年来极端降水和干燥事件时空演变特征.生态学杂志, 2006, 25(7):779-784. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-STXZ200607010.htm [5] 杨素英, 孙凤华, 马建中.增暖背景下中国东北地区极端降水事件的演变特征.地理学报, 2008, 28(2):224-228. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLKX200802017.htm [6] 李正国, 杨鹏, 唐华俊, 等.气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物典型物候期变化趋势分析.中国农业科学, 2011, 44(20):4180-4189. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZNYK201120011.htm [7] 李红梅, 马玉寿, 王彦龙.气候变暖对青海高原地区植物物候期的影响.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(4):500-505. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20100414 [8] 蒋菊芳, 王鹤龄, 魏育国, 等.河西走廊东部不同类型植物物候对气候变化的响应.中国农业气象, 2011, 32(4):543-549. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGNY201104014.htm [9] Sacks W J, Kucharik C J.Crop management and phenology trends in the US corn belt:Impacts on yields, evapotranspiration and energy balance.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2011, 151:882-894. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.02.010 [10] Tao F L, Masayuki Y, Xu Y L, et al.Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2006, 138:82-92. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.014 [11] 王琪, 马树庆, 郭建平, 等.温度变化对东北春玉米生长发育速率的影响.现代农业科技, 2011, 7:46-48. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5739.2011.02.022 [12] 翟治芬, 胡玮, 严昌荣, 等.中国玉米发育期变化及其影响因子研究.中国农业科学, 2012, 45(22):4587-4603. doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.22.005 [13] 王建兵, 王治桂.玛曲草地垂穗披碱草物候变化及影响因子.应用气象学报, 2011, 22(4):493-497. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20110412 [14] 李正国, 唐华俊, 杨鹏, 等.东北三省耕地物候期对热量资源变化的响应.地理学报, 2011, 66(7):928-939. doi: 10.11821/xb201107006 [15] 陈怀亮, 徐祥德, 杜子璇, 等.黄淮海地区植被活动对气候变化的响应特征.应用气象学报, 2009, 20(5):513-520. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20090501 [16] Andrew D R, Trevor F K, Mirco M, et al.Climate change, phenology, and phonological control of vegetation feedbacks to the climate system.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2013, 169:156-173. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.012 [17] 王培娟, 梁宏, 李祎君, 等.气候变暖对东北三省春玉米发育期及种植布局的影响.资源科学, 2011, 33(10):1976-1983. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZY201110022.htm [18] 刘实, 王勇, 缪启龙, 等.近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(3):266-278. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20100302 [19] 孙卫国.气候资源学.北京:气象出版社, 2008:100. [20] 卢纹岱.SPSS for Windows统计分析 (第3版).北京:电子工业出版社, 2008:267-268. [21] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.北京:气象出版社, 2007:226-227. [22] 戴诚, 康慕谊, 纪文瑶, 等.内蒙古中部草原地下生物量与生物量分配对环境因子的响应关系.草地学报, 2012, 20(2):268-274. doi: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2012.02.011 [23] 李祎君, 王春乙.气候变化对我国农作物种植结构的影响.气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(2):123-129. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH201002012.htm [24] 马玉平, 王石立, 李维京.基于作物生长模型的玉米生殖期冷害致灾因子研究.作物学报, 2011, 37(9):1264-1269. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XBZW201109019.htm [25] 何永坤, 郭建平.1961—2006年东北地区农业气候资源变化特征.自然资源学报, 2011, 26(7):1199-1208. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.07.012 [26] 柳晶, 郑有飞, 赵国强, 等.郑州植物物候对气候变化的响应.生态学报, 2007, 27(4):1471-1479. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-STXB200704025.htm [27] 潘根兴, 高民, 胡国华, 等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响.农业环境科学学报, 2011, 30(9):1698-1706. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NHBH201109007.htm [28] 赵秀兰.近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响.东北农业大学学报, 2010, 41(9):144-149. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DBDN201009029.htm [29] 王石立, 庄立伟, 王馥棠.近20年气候变暖对东北农业生产水热条件影响的研究.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(2):152-164. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030220&flag=1 [30] 姜大膀, 富元海.2℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估.大气科学, 2012, 36(2):234-246. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11074 [31] 丁一汇, 任国玉, 赵宗慈, 等.中国气候变化的检测及预估.沙漠与绿洲气象, 2007, 1(1):1-10. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJQX200701001.htm [32] 赵宗慈, 罗勇.21世纪中国东北地区气候变化预估.气象与环境学报, 2007, 23(3):1-4. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LNQX200703000.htm [33] 孙力, 沈柏竹, 安刚.中国东北地区地表干湿状况的变化及趋势分析.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(5):542-552. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030568&flag=1 [34] 王冀, 娄德君, 曲金华, 等.IPCC-AR4模式资料对东北地区气候及可利用水资源的预估研究.自然资源学报, 2009, 24(9):1647-1656. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2009.09.014 -
点击查看大图
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 4846
- HTML全文浏览量: 1973
- PDF下载量: 951
- 被引次数: 0
