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Determination of Area Precipitation Thresholds of Rainstorm-flood Hazard in the Nandu River Basin
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摘要: 基于海南省南渡江流域龙塘水文站1976—1987年和2009—2010年的逐日气象水文资料，采用HBV-D水文模型，通过对模型参数率定和验证，确定了适合南渡江流域的HBV-D水文模型最优化参数。结果表明：该模型在1976—1981年率定期、1982—1987年验证期和2009—2010年验证期的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.891，0.831，0.953，相关系数分别为0.944，0.912，0.977，达到了0.01显著性水平。通过建立的南渡江流域HBV-D水文模型进行模型反演，确定了不同前期水位 (7 m，8 m，9 m，10 m，11 m) 的面雨量和水位关系，根据龙塘水文站的警戒水位、10年重现期水位、30年重现期水位、50年重现期水位作为不同等级预警的临界判别条件，最终确定了不同前期水位的致灾临界面雨量指标。Abstract: Using hydrological model to determine area precipitation thresholds of rainstorm-flood hazard is a tendency of hydrological and meteorological forecast. The Nandu River Basin, locating on the north edge of Hainan Island, is the largest basin of tropical regions in China. And the frequent flood of the Nandu River Basin attracts wide public concern. The HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model is a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model with multiple versions, used in more than 40 countries and regions around the world. Using HBV-D model which is suitable for large-scale basin, the basin hydrologic characteristics of the Nandu River Basin are simulated and the area precipitation threshold values are determined. These effects may also provide scientific evidence for early warning in the Nandu River Basin.The model is run in terms of observed daily precipitation, air temperature during 1976-1987 and 2009-2010, and the simulated runoff is verified with corresponding hydrological observations of Longtang Hydrologic Station. Taking 1976-1981 as calibration period, several model sensitivity parameters are selected and calibrated by programming. Periods of 1982-1987 and 2009-2010 are selected for model validating, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and correlation coefficient are evaluated. Verifications show that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes are 0.891, 0.831 and 0.953, and correlation coefficients are 0.944, 0.912 and 0.977, both passing the test of 0.01 level in 3 periods. It indicates that the model can accurately simulate the Nandu River Basin hydrological characteristics. And it's able to determine area precipitation threshold values of rainstorm-flood hazard in the Nandu River Basin.The curve of stream flow and water level is simulated with historical hydrographic data of 1976-1987 when the water level is greater than or equal to 7 m. Curves of area precipitation and different previous water-levels (7 m, 8 m, 9 m, 10 m and 11 m) are determined by hydrological model HBV-D of the Nandu River Basin. Curves can calculate how many meters the water level will rise when storm comes, in the condition of five previous water-levels. Finally, according to water levels of warning, 10-year return period, 30-year return period and 50-year return period as critical criterions for different warning grades, the area precipitation thresholds in different previous water-levels are determined.The accuracy of area precipitation threshold values are verified using observations of four floods. The result indicates that these values are suitable for forewarning, but the missing of warning is still inevitable. To improve timeliness and accuracy, hourly rolling forecast and early warning can be carried out.
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图 1 南渡江流域概况及水文、气象站分布
Fig. 1 The Nandu River Basin with distribution of hydrological and meteorological stations
图 2 南渡江子流域和气象站分布
Fig. 2 The Nandu River sub-basins and distribution of meteorological stations
图 3 南渡江流域HBV-D水文模型率定期1976—1981年模拟值和观测值
Fig. 3 Simulated runoff by HBV-D and observed runoff from 1976 to 1981 in the Nandu River Basin
图 4 南渡江流域HBV-D水文模型验证期1982—1987年的模拟值和观测值
Fig. 4 Simulated runoff by HBV-D and observed runoff from 1982 to 1987 in the Nandu River Basin
图 5 南渡江流域HBV-D水文模型验证期2009—2010年的模拟值和观测值
Fig. 5 Simulated runoff by HBV-D and observed runoff from 2009 to 2010 in the Nandu River Basin
图 6 龙塘水文站1969—2012年逐日径流量模拟值
Fig. 6 Simulated daily runoff from 1969 to 2012 at Longtang Hydrologic Station
图 7 龙塘水文站7 m及以上水位流量-水位关系曲线
Fig. 7 The curve of stream flow and water-level at Longtang Hydrologic Station
图 8 龙塘水文站前期水位为7 m, 8 m, 9 m, 10 m, 11 m的面雨量和水位关系
Fig. 8 Relationship of area precipitation and water-level based on 7 m, 8 m, 9 m, 10 m, 11 m as previous water-level at Longtang Hydrologic Station
表 1 HBV-D水文模型参数优化值
Table 1 Optimal values of HBV-D for the investigated area
参数 取值 意义 PKORR 0.75 降水对雨量的校正系数 CEVPL 0.8 水体蒸散量校准系数 ERED 1 拦截时实际蒸散量系数 FCDEL 0.7 实际蒸散 (发) 和潜在蒸散 (发) 比值 BETA 0.18 土壤参数 INFMAX 17 mm/d 最大渗透能力 KUZ1 0.04 d-1 上层消退系数1 KUZ2 0.44 d-1 上层消退系数2 UZL 58.08 mm 阈值参数 PERC 3.37 mm/d 渗透系数 KLZ 0.015 d-1 下层消退系数 
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表 2 南渡江流域HBV-D水文模型日径流模拟效率
Table 2 Performance assessment of HBV-D for daily flow in the Nandu River Basin
时段 Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数 相关系数 率定期 (1976—1981年) 0.891 0.944* 验证期 (1982—1987年) 0.831 0.912* 验证期 (2009—2010年) 0.953 0.977* 注：*代表达到0.01显著性水平。
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表 3 南渡江流域致灾临界面雨量表
Table 3 Area precipitation thresholds of the Nandu River Basin
前期水位/m 24 h临界面雨量/mm 四级 三级 二级 一级 7 268 395 440 508 8 168 293 339 408 9 148 274 319 389 10 130 252 296 364 11 99 225 271 339
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表 4 南渡江流域4次洪水过程
Table 4 Four flood hydrographs of the Nandu River Basin
洪水过程 日期 水位/m 24 h面雨量/mm 第1次 1976-09-27 10.77 205.9 1976-09-28 13.17 37.6 1976-09-29 12.44 1.7 1976-09-30 10.29 1.0 第2次 1980-07-23 10.38 129.0 1980-07-24 11.82 15.3 1980-07-25 10.43 10.3 第3次 2010-10-04 9.73 118.5 2010-10-05 12.15 163.7 2010-10-06 14.08 92.0 2010-10-07 14.02 57.7 2010-10-08 12.69 40.4 2010-10-09 11.70 32.4 2010-10-10 10.8 1.7 第4次 2010-10-16 10.79 146.8 2010-10-17 13.39 171.5 2010-10-18 14.50 27.3 2010-10-19 13.41 0.0 2010-10-20 11.19 0.0
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