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Comparison of the Number of Thunderstorm Days from Lightning Location System and Artificial Observations
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摘要: 为了利用雷电定位系统 (lightning location system，LLS) 资料统计人工观测雷暴日数，采用湖北省2007—2012年LLS监测资料，选取25个气象站为圆心，统计其不同监测半径 (r) 圆区域内LLS监测的雷电日数，并与人工观测雷暴日数进行比较。结果表明：r≤7 km时，LLS监测平均年雷电日数小于人工观测平均年雷暴日数；r≥8 km时, LLS监测平均年雷电日数大于人工观测平均年雷暴日数；r=22 km圆区域内年平均雷电日数可替代最大年雷暴日数。根据r=7 km，r=8 km圆区域内LLS监测的年雷电日数、年平均地闪密度资料，分别采用直接替代法、地闪密度法和该文提出的二元法计算年雷暴日数，结果显示：二元法效果最好。二元法计算的2007—2012年25个站平均年雷暴日数与人工观测相等，平均差异为7.4%；二元法计算的2013年年雷暴日数与人工观测相差0.8 d，平均差异为12.3%。Abstract: Using the lightning location system (LLS) monitoring data of Hubei Province from 2007 to 2012 and 1983-2012 artificial observations, 25 meteorological stations with theoretical detection efficiency above 95% are selected to make a relative analysis on the number of thunderstorm days monitored by LLS with different monitoring radius (r) and artificial observations. Results show that annual mean thunderstorm days of artificial observations and LLS monitoring data agree mostly in the radius which range from 6.4 km to 10.2 km. In the circular area when r=7, 8, 9 km, the difference is minimum, with the average difference of about 19%. When r≤7 km, the annual mean thunderstorm days from LLS monitoring data is less than that of artificial observation, while it is more than artificial observation when r≥8 km, and it can replace the number of maximum annual mean thunderstorm days of artificial observations when r=22 km. The ground flash density do not change significantly with the monitoring radius in the range of 2-40 km, the annual mean flash density is 3.9-4.1 times/(km2 ·a) and the average value is 4 times/(km2 ·a) for each monitoring radius. According to data of LLS, 3 methods are suggested to calculate the number of annual mean thunderstorm days of artificial observations. The first method is using the number of annual mean thunderstorm days of LLS monitoring data when r=7 km to represent the artificial observations directly, called direct substitution method. The second method is to calculate the number of annual mean thunderstorm days of artificial observations by the equation with one unknown quantity on the basis of the annual mean flash density data when r=8 km, called ground flash density method. The third method is using the binary equation to calculate the number of annual mean thunderstorm days of artificial observations on the basis of the number of annual mean thunderstorm days and the annual mean flash density data when r=8 km, called binary method. The examination shows that the binary method is the best, followed by the ground flash density method and the direct substitution method. The number of annual mean thunderstorm days of 25 stations calculated by binary method from 2007 to 2012 are equal to that of artificial observations, and the average difference is 7.4%. In 2013, the gap of the number of annual mean thunderstorm days between binary method and artificial observation is 0.8 d, and the average difference is 12.3%.
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图 1 湖北省LLS理论探测效率示意图
Fig. 1 The schematic diagram of theoretical detection efficiency of LLS in Hubei Province
图 2 平均年雷电日数随监测半径变化
Fig. 2 The number of annual mean thunderstorm days changes with monitoring radius
图 3 人工观测与二元法计算年平均雷暴日数对比
Fig. 3 Comparison of the number of annual mean thunderstorm days of artificial observations and calculated by the binary method
表 1 半径r分布
Table 1 r of sample data
r/km 频数/站 3~4 2 5~6 8 7~8 4 9~10 4 11~12 3 13~14 3 15 1 
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表 2 25个站雷电日数与雷暴日数对比
Table 2 Comparison of the number of lightning days and the number of thunderstorm days at 25 stations
站名 Td/d Tl/Td r=6 km r=7 km r=8 km r=9 km r=10 km 安陆 27.0 0.543 0.599 0.673 0.747 0.815 房县 20.3 0.836 0.918 0.984 1.066 1.131 黄石 39.3 0.983 1.072 1.119 1.140 1.174 云梦 22.5 0.756 0.852 0.941 1.030 1.059 保康 26.2 0.605 0.688 0.777 0.809 0.885 孝感 28.2 0.651 0.769 0.822 0.876 0.923 蔡甸 26.8 0.994 1.099 1.205 1.298 1.404 新洲 29.0 0.920 0.994 1.098 1.167 1.207 长阳 35.5 0.751 0.850 0.944 1.023 1.094 广水 25.5 0.641 0.699 0.732 0.804 0.837 建始 34.7 0.793 0.938 1.077 1.178 1.284 蒲圻 37.8 1.300 1.366 1.419 1.471 1.511 汉川 23.0 0.913 1.022 1.087 1.167 1.217 江夏 31.3 1.106 1.213 1.309 1.367 1.441 五峰 32.0 1.167 1.281 1.422 1.516 1.599 大悟 26.0 0.590 0.647 0.705 0.724 0.788 宜昌 39.0 1.047 1.085 1.132 1.145 1.175 钟祥 26.0 0.679 0.750 0.795 0.846 0.885 洪湖 27.5 1.103 1.139 1.170 1.200 1.242 神农架 25.2 0.974 1.079 1.159 1.219 1.291 当阳 29.0 0.661 0.747 0.810 0.908 1.011 黄陂 29.7 0.730 0.837 0.916 1.022 1.090 应城 26.5 0.541 0.660 0.736 0.855 0.937 鄂州 38.3 1.030 1.104 1.204 1.265 1.330 黄冈 32.7 1.097 1.163 1.209 1.224 1.281 平均 29.6 0.856 0.943 1.018 1.083 1.145
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表 3 不同监测半径平均年雷电日数与最大年雷暴日数对比
Table 3 Comparison of the number of annual mean lightning days and the number of average maximum annual thunderstorm days for different monitoring radius
监测半径/km Tl/d Tdmax/d Tl与Tdmax差值/d r=18 44.3 47.7 -3.4 r=20 46.3 47.7 -1.4 r=22 47.8 47.7 0.1 r=24 49.1 47.7 1.4 r=26 50.2 47.7 2.5
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表 4 不同监测半径平均年雷电日数与平均年雷暴日数对比
Table 4 Comparison of the number of annual mean lightning days and the number of annual mean thunderstorm days for different monitoring radius
监测半径/km Tl/d Td/d Tl与Td平均差值/d Tl与Td平均比值 Tl与Td相关系数 Ng与Td相关系数 r=7 28.4 29.6 -1.2 0.943 0.8379 0.6442 r=8 30.6 29.6 1.0 0.018 0.8450 0.6633 r=9 32.5 29.6 2.9 1.083 0.8432 0.6519
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表 5 2007—2012年25个站Td与Tl，Td1，Td2对比检验
Table 5 Comparison and verification of Td and Tl, Td1, Td2 from 2007 to 2012 at 25 stations
站名 Td/d Tl/d Td1/d Td2/d Tl/Td Td1/Td Td2/Td E1/% E2/% E3/% 安陆 27.0 16.2 27.1 24.1 0.599 1.003 0.893 40.1 0.3 10.7 房县 20.3 18.7 26.6 24.5 0.918 1.307 1.205 8.2 30.7 20.5 黄石 39.3 42.2 37.6 37.9 1.072 0.956 0.963 7.2 4.4 3.7 云梦 22.5 19.2 28.2 25.7 0.852 1.254 1.141 14.8 25.4 14.1 保康 26.2 18.0 27.6 25.1 0.688 1.054 0.958 31.2 5.4 4.2 孝感 28.2 21.7 28.7 26.6 0.769 1.018 0.943 23.1 1.8 5.7 蔡甸 26.8 29.5 29.2 30.0 1.099 1.089 1.117 9.9 8.9 11.7 新洲 29.0 28.8 31.2 30.7 0.994 1.074 1.059 0.6 7.4 5.9 长阳 35.5 30.2 32.2 31.8 0.850 0.908 0.895 15.0 9.2 10.5 广水 25.5 17.8 28.3 24.8 0.699 1.109 0.974 30.1 10.9 2.6 建始 34.7 32.5 23.9 29.2 0.938 0.689 0.843 6.2 31.1 15.7 蒲圻 37.8 51.7 32.3 38.7 1.366 0.853 1.024 36.6 14.7 2.4 汉川 23.0 23.5 28.3 27.0 1.022 1.229 1.174 2.2 22.9 17.4 江夏 31.3 38.0 31.6 34.1 1.213 1.010 1.088 21.3 1.0 8.8 五峰 32.0 41.0 25.0 32.6 1.281 0.783 1.018 28.1 21.7 1.8 大悟 26.0 16.8 27.0 24.1 0.647 1.040 0.929 35.3 4.0 7.1 宜昌 39.0 42.3 34.9 36.7 1.085 0.894 0.940 8.5 10.6 6.0 钟祥 26.0 19.5 27.8 25.3 0.750 1.068 0.972 25.0 6.8 2.8 洪湖 27.5 31.3 27.9 29.3 1.139 1.014 1.065 13.9 1.4 6.5 神农架 25.2 27.2 23.9 26.4 1.079 0.948 1.049 7.9 5.2 4.9 当阳 29.0 21.7 32.2 28.3 0.747 1.109 0.976 25.3 10.9 2.4 黄陂 29.7 24.8 29.7 28.4 0.837 1.001 0.958 16.3 0.1 4.2 应城 26.5 17.5 28.1 25.1 0.660 1.062 0.945 34.0 6.2 5.5 鄂州 38.3 42.3 34.5 37.2 1.104 0.900 0.970 10.4 10.0 3.0 黄冈 32.7 38.0 35.4 35.3 1.163 1.083 1.081 16.3 8.3 8.1 平均 29.6 28.4 29.6 29.6 0.943 1.018 1.007 18.7 10.4 7.4
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表 6 2013年25个站Td与Tl，Td1，Td2对比检验
Table 6 Comparison and verification of Td and Tl, Td1, Td2 from 2007 to 2013 at 25 stations
站名 Td/d Tl/d Td1/d Td2/d Tl/Td Td1/Td Td2/Td E1/% E2/% E3/% 安陆 27 15 23.2 21.6 0.556 0.860 0.799 44.4 14.0 20.1 房县 31 32 33.5 32.6 1.032 1.082 1.050 3.2 8.2 5.0 黄石 29 33 28.8 31.4 1.138 0.994 1.083 13.8 0.6 8.3 云梦 21 18 26.0 24.3 0.857 1.240 1.155 14.3 24.0 15.5 保康 38 26 27.4 28.3 0.684 0.721 0.746 31.6 27.9 25.4 孝感 30 18 28.3 27.4 0.600 0.945 0.913 40.0 5.5 8.7 蔡甸 33 34 24.9 29.5 1.030 0.753 0.895 3.0 24.7 10.5 新洲 33 27 28.3 29.1 0.818 0.858 0.882 18.2 14.2 11.8 长阳 42 41 27.7 32.6 0.976 0.658 0.775 2.4 34.2 22.5 广水 25 19 24.7 24.3 0.760 0.987 0.972 24.0 1.3 2.8 建始 31 39 23.6 32.4 1.258 0.763 1.046 25.8 23.7 4.6 蒲圻 41 58 29.8 39.1 1.415 0.726 0.953 41.5 27.4 4.7 汉川 27 26 30.4 29.0 0.963 1.125 1.075 3.7 12.5 7.5 江夏 26 43 29.3 34.7 1.654 1.126 1.335 65.4 12.6 33.5 五峰 39 47 24.9 34.4 1.205 0.639 0.882 20.5 36.1 11.8 大悟 20 16 25.2 22.5 0.800 1.258 1.124 20.0 25.8 12.4 宜昌 45 43 34.8 36.2 0.956 0.773 0.805 4.4 22.7 19.5 钟祥 24 28 28.5 29.5 1.167 1.187 1.230 16.7 18.7 23.0 洪湖 31 31 26.5 30.0 1.000 0.854 0.967 0.0 14.6 3.3 神农架 31 37 26.9 31.2 1.194 0.867 1.006 19.4 13.3 0.6 当阳 26 29 29.6 29.0 1.115 1.138 1.115 11.5 13.8 11.5 黄陂 29 25 31.8 29.3 0.862 1.096 1.011 13.8 9.6 1.1 应城 30 20 25.0 23.7 0.667 0.832 0.792 33.3 16.8 20.8 鄂州 30 37 30.5 33.2 1.233 1.016 1.107 23.3 1.6 10.7 黄冈 31 42 31.5 34.4 1.355 1.016 1.108 35.5 1.6 10.8 平均 30.8 31.4 28.0 30.0 1.012 0.941 0.993 21.2 16.2 12.3
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