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A Comparative Study on Dynamic Forecasting of Early Rice Yield by Using Different Methods in Hunan Province
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摘要: 为了提高产量趋势预报的准确性和定量预报的准确率，利用1962—2002年气象、早稻产量和田间观测资料，建立基于气候适宜度、关键气象因子、作物生长模型的湖南省早稻产量动态预报方法，进行回代检验；并利用2003—2012年资料进行预报检验。分析表明：3种方法的预报准确率比较接近，平均在93.8%以上；基于气候适宜度预报方法的趋势预报准确性最高，较基于关键气象因子的预报方法高4%~6%；基于作物生长模型预报方法的误差5%以内样本百分率最高，较基于气候适宜度的预报方法高2%~20%。研究结果为湖南省早稻产量动态预报筛选出了较优的方法，即产量趋势预报选用基于气候适宜度的方法，定量预报选用基于作物生长模型的方法，同时可供我国其他早稻区的产量动态预报方法研究借鉴。Abstract: The crop yield forecasting is one of the most important aspects of meteorological services for agricultural production. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, different forecasting methods are compared, and dynamic forecasting models of early rice yield are established based on climatic suitability, key meteorological factors and crop growth simulation model. Daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, sunshine duration, wind velocity and vapor pressure data of 15 representative meteorological stations are used, as well as the early rice growth and yield data of 12 representative agricultural meteorological stations in Hunan Province from 1962 to 2002. Fitting test is performed by constraining the margin of error less than 5%. Extrapolation test is performed using data from 2003 to 2012, showing the accuracy of three methods are similar, all higher than 93.8%, and the dynamic forecasting models practically pass the test of 0.02 level, except for failing the test of 0.10 level on 30 April. Forecasting models from rifeness tiller to elongating stage pass the test of 0.01 level, and forecasting models at reproductive stage pass the test of 0.001 level too. The method based on climatic suitability improves the accuracy by 4%-6% comparing to that based on key meteorological factors and is 8%-10% more accurate than that based on crop growth simulation model. In quantitative forecast, the method based on crop growth simulation model is optimum, leading to obviously more samples whose margin of error is less than 5%. According to the analysis, the better method of early rice yield forecasting is screened out for Hunan Province. The method based on climatic suitability is chosen to carry out trend prediction of early rice yield, and the method based on crop growth simulation model is used to make quantitative forecast. It also provides reference for dynamic forecasting method research of early rice yield in other areas of China.
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表 1 湖南省早稻各生育期的最低温度、最高温度和适宜温度 (单位：℃)
Table 1 The minimum, maximum and optimum temperatures at different growth stages of early rice in Hunan Province (unit:℃)
生育期 最低温度 最高温度 适宜温度 播种期 10 40 18 出苗期 14 40 20 移栽、返青期 15 35 28 分蘖期 17 33 25 孕穗期 17 40 25 抽穗期 18 35 25 乳熟、成熟期 13 35 23 
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表 2 基于气候适宜度的湖南省早稻产量丰歉值动态预报模型
Table 2 Dynamic forecasting models for bumper or poor harvest of early rice yield based on climatic suitability in Hunan Province
预报时间 预报模型 显著性水平 04-30 ΔY=(34.2f-0.60)×100% 未达到0.10显著性水平 05-10 ΔY=(34.4f-10.70)×100% 0.02 05-20 ΔY=(38.3f-18.68)×100% 0.01 05-31 ΔY=(38.2f-16.99)×100% 0.01 06-10 ΔY=(37.0f-7.64)×100% 0.01 06-20 ΔY=(37.8f-17.60)×100% 0.01 06-30 ΔY=(37.9f-17.07)×100% 0.001 07-10 ΔY=(36.7f-26.39)×100% 0.001 07-20 ΔY=(35.9f-18.98)×100% 0.001 注：ΔY表示湖南省早稻产量丰歉值预报，f表示从播种到预报时间止的早稻气候适宜指数。
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表 3 各旬气候要素与湖南省早稻产量丰歉值的相关系数
Table 3 Correlation coefficients between ten-day climate factors and bumper or poor harvest of early rice yield in Hunan Province
时间 相关系数 平均温度 降水量 日照时数 3月下旬 0.1034 -0.0557 0.1356 4月上旬 -0.1861 0.0020 -0.2122 4月中旬 0.0694 0.0172 0.0150 4月下旬 -0.1519 -0.1392 0.0606 5月上旬 0.2481 -0.1633 0.3845 5月中旬 0.1655 -0.1668 0.1368 5月下旬 0.0326 0.1756 -0.0387 6月上旬 -0.2882 0.0052 -0.1673 6月中旬 -0.1820 -0.3055 0.1947 6月下旬 -0.1389 -0.0346 -0.0284 7月上旬 0.1567 -0.2169 0.1942 7月中旬 -0.0906 0.0058 -0.0592
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表 4 基于关键气象因子的湖南省早稻产量丰歉值动态预报模型
Table 4 Dynamic forecasting models for bumper or poor harvest of early rice yield based on key meteorological factors in Hunan Province
预报时间 预报模型 显著性水平 04-30 ΔY=(0.075xM-0.043xA+2.91)×100% 未达到0.10显著性水平 05-10 ΔY=(0.171x1-4.58)×100% 0.02 05-20 ΔY=(0.163x1+0.46x2-14.56)×100% 0.01 05-31 ΔY=(0.15x1+0.55x2+0.031x3-18.11)×100% 0.01 06-10 ΔY=(0.12x1+0.60x2+0.037x3-1.40x4+16.92)×100% 0.01 06-20 ΔY=(0.11x1+0.45x2+0.034x3-1.425x4-0.049x5+25.09)×100% 0.001 06-30 ΔY=(0.12x1+0.64x2+0.041x3-1.38x4-0.057x5-1.6x6+62.01)×100% 0.001 07-10 ΔY=(0.11 x1+0.83x2+0.029x3-1.38x4-0.063x5-1.76x6-0.054x7+66.79)×100% 0.001 07-20 ΔY=(0.11x1+0.79x2+0.028x3-1.36x4-0.060x5-1.71x6-0.057x7-0.39x8+76.70)×100% 0.001 注：ΔY表示湖南省早稻产量丰歉值预报，xM表示3月下旬日照时数，xA表示4月下旬降水量，x1表示5月上旬日照时数，x2表示5月中旬平均气温，x3表示5月下旬降水量，x4表示6月上旬平均气温，x5表示6月中旬降水量，x6表示6月下旬平均气温，x7表示7月上旬降水量，x8表示7月中旬平均气温。
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表 5 1962—2002年基于气候适宜度的早稻产量动态预报方法回代检验
Table 5 Fitting test for dynamic forecasting method of early rice yield based on climatic suitability from 1962 to 2002
预报时间 趋势预报准确性/% 预报准确率/% 误差5%以内样本百分率/% 误差7%以内样本百分率/% 05-10 66 94.5 54 68 05-20 71 94.6 56 73 05-31 68 94.6 59 68 06-10 66 94.3 51 66 06-20 73 94.5 51 66 06-30 73 94.5 54 66 07-10 71 94.7 61 68 07-20 71 94.7 56 68
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表 6 1962—2002年基于关键气象因子的早稻产量动态预报方法回代检验
Table 6 Fitting test for dynamic forecasting method of early rice yield based on key meteorological factors from 1962 to 2002
预报时间 趋势预报准确性/% 预报准确率/% 误差5%以内样本百分率/% 误差7%以内样本百分率/% 05-10 54 94.3 54 66 05-20 63 94.4 54 69 05-31 59 94.4 51 66 06-10 61 94.4 54 66 06-20 68 94.5 49 63 06-30 71 95.2 56 63 07-10 71 95.2 59 73 07-20 68 95.2 61 73
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表 7 1962—2002年基于作物生长模型的早稻产量动态预报方法回代检验
Table 7 Fitting test for dynamic forecasting method of early rice yield based on crop growth simulation model from 1962 to 2002
预报时间 趋势预报准确性/% 预报准确率/% 误差5%以内样本百分率/% 误差7%以内样本百分率/% 04-30 66 93.6 59 63 05-10 54 93.6 51 63 05-20 59 94.1 56 63 05-31 54 93.9 59 76 06-10 54 93.6 46 59 06-20 59 93.8 56 63 06-30 59 94.0 59 61 07-10 66 93.8 66 73 07-20 66 93.9 59 71
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表 8 2003—2012年基于气候适宜度的早稻产量动态预报方法预报检验
Table 8 Extrapolation test for dynamic forecasting method of early rice yield based on climatic suitability from 2003 to 2012
预报时间 趋势预报准确性/% 预报准确率/% 误差5%以内样本百分率/% 误差7%以内样本百分率/% 05-10 50 96.5 60 100 05-20 60 97.0 70 90 05-31 60 96.0 60 80 06-10 50 95.5 30 70 06-20 60 96.5 50 80 06-30 60 96.6 50 80 07-10 60 96.2 40 80 07-20 60 96.1 50 80
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表 9 2003—2012年基于关键气象因子的早稻产量动态预报方法预报检验
Table 9 Extrapolation test for dynamic forecasting method of early rice yield based on key meteorological factors from 2003 to 2012
预报时间 趋势预报准确性/% 预报准确率/% 误差5%以内样本百分率/% 误差7%以内样本百分率/% 05-10 60 95.9 50 90 05-20 50 95.8 50 90 05-31 50 95.6 60 90 06-10 40 95.5 60 90 06-20 50 95.2 50 60 06-30 50 96.0 60 90 07-10 70 95.9 70 80 07-20 60 96.2 70 80
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表 10 2003—2012年基于作物生长模型的早稻产量动态预报方法预报检验
Table 10 Extrapolation test for dynamic forecasting method of early rice yield based on crop growth simulation model from 2003 to 2012
预报时间 趋势预报准确性/% 预报准确率/% 误差5%以内样本百分率/% 误差7%以内样本百分率/% 04-30 60 97.0 80 90 05-10 50 96.8 90 90 05-20 50 96.7 90 90 05-31 50 96.7 80 90 06-10 50 96.4 70 90 06-20 40 94.7 50 70 06-30 50 94.1 60 70 07-10 50 94.7 60 60 07-20 50 95.3 60 60
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