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Preliminary Results on Long-term Soil Moisture Variation in Yunnan
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摘要: 利用1948—2013年美国NOAA/CPC全球0.5°×0.5 °月平均格点化土壤湿度资料、1951—2013年云南地区125个站月降水和1993—2013年22个站月土壤湿度观测资料对云南土壤湿度及其表征的旱涝长期变化进行时空分布及演变特征分析。结果表明：云南地区旱涝变化的空间结构相对简单且具有大尺度特征，长期变化特征明显。由20世纪50年代的滇中部地区偏旱，其余地区偏涝，逐步发展为相反；20世纪90年代开始滇中部地区偏涝，其余地区偏旱，且旱情日趋加重，范围扩展，2010年、2012年和2013年严重干旱蔓延至云南全省。研究揭示，云南冬半年旱涝与前期海温异常密切相关，冬半年云南地区旱涝不同的EOF模态时间变化对应着不同的前期海温异常变化分布。云南全省旱涝一致的第1模态对应前期孟加拉湾、阿拉伯海、西太平洋以及大西洋的海温异常正相关。云南西北—东南旱涝反向的第2模态对应前期孟加拉湾、南海、西太平洋及东太平洋ENSO区海温异常负相关。Abstract: Long-term spatial-temporal distributions of soil moisture anomalies related drought-flood events and their evolution features in Yunnan, China of recent 66 years are explored using 1948-2013 NOAA CPC 0.5°×0.5° global monthly soil moisture data, along with 125-station based monthly observed precipitation for period of 1951-2013, and monthly soil moisture observation from 22 stations for the period of 1993-2013. Comparing with precipitation, soil moisture has some unique physical properties and statistical features, such as longer memory and closer to normal distribution, making it an important component for drought-flood analyzing and monitoring. The mutual validation reveals that the gridded NOAA CPC monthly soil moisture data can capture those major observed drought-flood events very well. The preliminary results show that spatial structures of soil moisture anomaly related drought-flood events in Yunnan, China have relatively simple and large-scale features. The first four leading EOF modes can explain more than 2/3 of total variance of soil moisture variations. The soil moisture related drought-flood events also have obvious long-term variations or trends, such as from 1950s it is drier in central Yunnan and wetter in most rest parts, and then the condition gradually evolved to the opposite, from 1990s the central part of Yunnan becomes wetter than most rest parts. The drought condition tends to become worse since then, especially for the years of 2010, 2012 and 2013, when extreme drought conditions extends to almost everywhere in Yunnan. Further study on possible causes for this spatial-temporal evolution reveals some good relationships between monthly soil moisture variations and global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) one or two months ago, especially in cool season. The 1st EOF mode of soil moisture anomalies, which represents soil moisture anomalies through the whole Yunnan, has good correlation with previous month's SSTA nearby the Bay of Bengal, Arab Sea, the western tropical Pacific and the remote Atlantic, and the 2nd EOF mode which reflects soil moisture anomalies related drought-flood variations from northwest to southeast Yunnan also well correlates with previous month's SSTA in the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, western Pacific, and the remote eastern tropical Pacific ENSO region and the tropical Atlantic. The 3rd EOF mode and 4th EOF mode of soil moisture anomalies, which present south to north and east to west drought-flood variations in Yunnan, also relate to unique SSTA in previous months.
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Key words:
- Yunnan;
- soil moisture;
- drought-flood;
- spatial-temporal distribution
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图 2 云南省22个站观测和格点化土壤湿度对比
(a) 1993年1月—2013年7月逐月变化，(b) 20年平均年变化
Fig. 2 Comparison of 22 observed and gridded soil moisture in Yunnan
(a) monthly soil moisture anomalies for Jan 1993-Jul 2013，(b) 20-year mean annual soil moisture
图 3 云南省气象站月平均观测和格点化降水量对比
(4个站平均相关系数为0.97, 均方根误差为 30.8 mm)
Fig. 3 Comparison of observed and gridded monthly precipitation in Yunnan
(averaged anomaly correlation from above 4 stations is 0.97, root mean square error is 30.8 mm)
图 4 云南西部地区、中部地区、东部地区9个月滑动平均陆面降水和土壤湿度异常的长期变化及气候平均特征
(a) 逐月降水量距平变化，(b) 逐月土壤湿度距平变化，(c) 降水量气候平均，(d) 土壤湿度气候平均
Fig. 4 Long-term (9-month running mean) variations and their climatologies of monthly precipitation and soil moisture in western, central and eastern Yunnan
(a) monthly precipitation anomalies，(b) monthly soil moisture anomalies，(c) climatic monthly precipitation，(d) climatic monthly soil moisture
图 5 云南地区月平均降水量、土壤湿度异常滞后1~3个月的空间自相关系数的时间系列及其气候平均值
(a) 降水量逐月变化，(b) 土壤湿度逐月变化，(c) 降水量逐月气候平均，(d) 土壤湿度逐月气候平均
Fig. 5 Time series and their climatologies of 1-3-month lagged spatial autocorrelations of monthly precipitation anomalies and soil moisture anomalies in Yunnan
(a) monthly precipitation，(b) monthly soil moisture， (c) climatic monthly precipitation，(d) climatic monthly soil moisture
图 6 1948年1月—2013年12月云南地区土壤湿度变化的经验正交函数分析
(左图为EOF空间场乘其时间系数均方根, 单位:mm；右图为标准化时间系数)
Fig. 6 EOF analysis of soil moisture anomalies in Yunnan for Jan 1948-Dec 2013
(EOF patterns sacled by the root mean square value of the associated PCs，unit:mm, PCs are normalized)
图 7 1948年1月—2013年12月云南土壤湿度时间-经度变化 (单位:mm)
Fig. 7 Time-longitude evolution of soil moisture in Yunnan for Jan 1948-Dec 2013 (unit:mm)
图 8 云南地区土壤湿度的长期距平分析 (单位: mm)
(a) 20世纪50年代，(b) 20世纪60年代，(c) 20世纪70年代，(d) 20世纪80年代，(e) 20世纪90年代，(f) 21世纪前10年
Fig. 8 Decadal soil moisture variations in Yunnan (unit:mm)
(a) 1950s，(b) 1960s，(c) 1970s，(d) 1980s，(e) 1990s，(f) 2000s
图 9 1948年—2013年冬半年云南地区土壤湿度异常经验正交函数分析的前4个模态时间系数PC1~PC4与相应前1个月全球海表温度异常的遥相关
(阴影区达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 9 Tele-connection between PC1-PC4 of soil moisture anomalies in Yunnan and previous month global SST anomalies for cool season of 1948-2013
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
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