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The Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Strength and Its Precursor
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摘要: 利用ERA-Interim再分析资料、NOAA海温资料、CMAP格点降水资料和中国气象站降水资料，通过合成、相关和回归分析等方法研究了1979—2012年东亚夏季风强度与其先兆信号的关系，并分析了热带海温异常的可能影响。研究表明：东亚夏季风先兆指数反映了2月200 hPa纬向风距平的主要模态特征 (EOF1)，前冬热带中东太平洋海温偏低 (高)，2月亚洲地区西风急流位置偏北 (偏南)，东亚夏季风先兆指数偏强 (弱)。前期热带海温异常对东亚夏季风强度有明显影响，前冬热带中东太平洋海温偏低 (高) 有利于东亚夏季风偏强 (弱)。2月亚洲中纬度地区纬向风异常特征在春季不能持续，先兆信号与东亚夏季风强度的联系主要源自热带海洋。Abstract: The strength of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is closely connected to the summer main rainfall belt in China. The precursor index defined by the difference of zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa between the middle latitude in Asia and eastern Pacific in February is well indicative to the strength of EASM, which is an important predicting factors in flood season. The potential mechanism of precursor signal influencing the EASM is proposed by changing the surface characteristics in South Asia continent, but it is unclear whether the atmospheric circulation anomaly in February persists in the following seasons over middle latitude region.In addition, a further investigation is needed about the surface anomaly variation over South Asia in winter-spring seasons. ERA-Interim reanalysis data, NOAA sea surface data, gridded CMAP precipitation data and precipitation observations over China are used. By composite, correlation and regression analysis approaches, the difference of wind in middle latitude over Eurasia, sea surface temperature (SST) in tropics and thermal condition in South Asia continent in previous winter-spring seasons in various strength EASM years are analyzed. Results indicate that tropical SST is the physical connection of accordant variations between the strength of EASM and its precursor.Results show that the precursor signal of EASM captures the primary feature for the first mode of empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa over the Asia and Pacific in February. The EOF1 mode is related to SST in the central and eastern Pacific. In the previous winter, the SST is below (above) normal in the central and eastern Pacific, which is conducive to a northward (southward) shift of westerly jet over the Asia in February. The zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa exhibits meridional positive-negative-positive (negative-positive-negative) pattern, and the precursor index is stronger (weaker) than normal. In summer, the negative (positive) SST anomaly occurs in the vicinity of Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which results in an increasing (decreasing) difference between ocean and land and stronger (weaker) Indian Summer Monsoon. Meanwhile, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is weaker (stronger) than normal, and the EASM is stronger (weaker) than normal.The anomalous feature of zonal wind in the middle latitude of the Asia in February is hardly to persist in spring. The physical connection between EASM and its precursor mainly derives from the tropical ocean.
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Key words:
- EASM;
- precursor index;
- SST;
- rainfall belt
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图 2 东亚夏季风强、弱年中国夏季降水距平百分率合成差异 (单位：%)
(黑色圆点表示达到0.1显著性水平)
Fig. 2 Composite difference of summer precipitation anomaly percentage in different strength years of EASM (unit:%)
(the dotted denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)
图 3 东亚夏季风强、弱年2月200 hPa纬向风距平合成差异 (单位：m·s-1)
(粗实线表示200 hPa纬向风气候场50 m·s-1等值线，阴影表示达到0.1显著性水平)
Fig. 3 Composite difference of zonal wind anomaly (unit: m·s-1) at 200 hPa in February in different strength years of EASM
(the solid bold line denotes climatological 50 m·s-1 contour of zonal wind at 200 hPa, the shaded denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)
图 4 夏季风强、弱年春季200 hPa纬向风距平合成差异 (单位：m·s-1)
(阴影表示达到0.1显著性水平)
Fig. 4 Composite difference of zonal wind anomaly (unit: m·s-1) at 200 hPa in spring in different strength years of EASM
(the shaded denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)
图 5 东亚夏季风强、弱年春季降水率 (单位:mm·d-1)(a) 和气温 (单位:℃)(b) 距平合成差异
(阴影表示达到0.1显著性水平)
Fig. 5 Composite difference of precipitation rate (unit:mm·d-1)(a) and temperature (unit:℃)(b) in spring in different strength years of EASM
(the shaded denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)
图 6 2月200 hPa纬向风距平的EOF1模态
Fig. 6 The EOF1 mode of zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa in February
图 7 2月200 hPa纬向风距平EOF1模态的时间系数与冬季海温的相关分布
(阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 7 Correlations between the principle component of EOF1 and zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa in February
(the shaded denotes correlation coefficients significant at 0.05 level)
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