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Spatiotemporal Variability of Heat Waves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Influencing Factors in Recent 54 Years
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摘要: 基于1960—2013年京津冀及周边地区34个气象站逐日最高气温和相对湿度资料，利用高温热浪模型，辅以趋势分析、突变检验及相关分析等方法，研究近54年京津冀地区热浪时空变化特征，探讨城市化对热浪变化的影响，并尝试寻找对热浪异常具有稳定指示意义的环流因子。结果表明：1960—2013年京津冀地区热浪变化具有明显的阶段性，以20世纪70年代中期为转折，热浪呈先减少后增加趋势；京津冀地区热浪空间格局变化整体呈南减北增，东南平原区热浪呈下降趋势，北部生态涵养区呈现增加趋势；在区域尺度上，城市化或迁站影响并未改变北京极端热浪变化趋势，主要影响以轻度和中度热浪变化为主；西太平洋副热带高压和青藏高原反气旋环流与京津冀地区热浪异常关系最为显著，对热浪异常是一种稳定且强烈的指示信号。当青藏高原高空反气旋环流异常偏强，西太平洋副热带高压明显偏北，京津冀地区发生超级热浪可能性较大。Abstract:
It indicates that hot summers will become more frequent in eastern China in the future. The region will face a great risk in the absence of any adaptation measures taken towards reducing its vulnerability to effects of extreme heat. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is identified as the biggest metropolitan in northern China. Rapid urbanization and the recent frequent occurrence of hot summers in the region raises questions about influencing factors at the regional scale and the spatiotemporal variability of heat waves. Using the newly developed Heatwave Index (HI), a statistical analysis is conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of heat waves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region over a period from 1960 to 2013. More specifically, based on the history of relocations, the heat wave trends between Beijing and Fengning is compared to investigate the influence of urbanization, and also analyse the relationship between atmospheric circulation anomalies and observed heat wave trends. It shows that based on variations in heat wave trends, two distinct phases are identified in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Owing to some abrupt changes in the mid-1970s, the frequency of heat waves decrease from 1960 to 1973, and then increase from 1974 to 2013. Heat waves show a decreasing trend in the southern part and an increasing trend in the northern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. A significant increasing trend is found in the northern and western biological conservation area, and decreasing trend in south-eastern plains. At the regional scale, urbanization and relocations affect the occurrence of slight to moderate rather than extreme heat waves. In the period of global warming and rapid urbanization, the frequency of heat waves in Beijing is higher than that of Fengning. In recent global warming hiatus, the frequency of heat waves in Beijing is lower than Fengning. Driving factors behind temporal and spatial patterns are deemed complicated. The inter-decadal variations are significantly and closely related to the offsetting of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) ridge and the anomalous anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau (TPAI) in summer. In other words, there is a positive correlation between the number of heat wave days and WPSH and TPAI. Furthermore, the probability of a summer with a mega-heat wave would increase with the anomalies in WPSH and TPAI.
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图 1 研究区气候区划及气象站分布
Fig. 1 Climate regionalization and the distribution of meteorological stations in the study area
图 2 1960—2013年京津冀地区轻度热浪、中度热浪、重度热浪和热浪总频次变化曲线
Fig. 2 Variations of slight heat waves, moderate heat waves, severe heat waves and total frequency of heat waves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region during 1960-2013
图 3 1960—2013年京津冀地区高温热浪月变化趋势
Fig. 3 Trend of monthly heat waves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region during 1960-2013
图 4 1960—2013年北京与丰宁轻度热浪、中度热浪、重度热浪和热浪总频次21年滑动相关变化
(断线表示0.01显著性水平)
Fig. 4 21-year sliding correlation coefficient of slight heat waves, moderate heat waves, severe heat waves and total frequency of heat waves between Beijing and Fengning during 1960-2013
(the dashed line denotes the level of 0.01)
图 5 1960—2013年北京与丰宁轻度热浪、中度热浪、重度热浪和热浪总频次差值变化
Fig. 5 The change trend of slight heat waves, moderate heat waves, severe heat waves and total frequency of heat waves difference between Beijing and Fengning during 1960-2013
图 6 不同时间尺度京津冀地区热浪与环流因子相关分析
Fig. 6 Correlation analysis of atmospheric oscillation and heat waves on different time scales in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
表 1 京津冀地区热浪与环流因子多元回归分析
Table 1 Heat waves regressed against atmospheric oscillation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
环流因子 b T 膨胀系数 东亚夏季风 0.183 1.430 1.099 北大西洋涛动 -0.241 1.620 1.182 印度洋偶极子 0.270 -1.947 1.061 青藏高原高空反气旋环流 0.333 2.179 1.208 西太平洋副热带高压北界 0.200 2.473 1.329 注：b为多元线性回归系数，T为t检验值。 
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