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Evaluation on the Random Error of Second Level Sounding Data
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摘要: 利用2007年6月和2008年6—7月国内GPS探空仪同步比对试验数据及2010年中国阳江国际探空系统比对试验数据，基于现有的探空仪随机误差的间接计算方法，深入分析不同的探空原始数据平滑处理程度对随机误差评估的影响。分析表明：现有的探空仪随机误差评估方法不能完全适用于秒级探空数据，特别是对风、平流层温度和对流层相对湿度这3个要素的随机误差的评估。在同步比对施放中，如果对探空原始数据的平滑处理程度一致，可以利用现有的随机误差评估方法，不会产生明显偏差；反之，如果平滑处理程度差异较大，则间接计算得出的随机误差会明显偏大。在比对施放方案中，为了更好地获取某种型号探空仪的随机误差，建议将多个同型号探空仪同球施放进行比对观测，避免作为参考仪器的其他型号探空仪自身的误差参与计算，影响待测探空仪随机误差的评估。同型号探空仪同球施放的探空仪越多，获取的有效统计数据越多，随机误差的分析越准确。Abstract: With the development of science and technology, the performance of sounding system, including the data acquisition rate, accuracy, reliability and automation are improved significantly. Comparison and statistical methods to estimate various errors are also needed to be improved. Relative system error and random error are concern variables of the sounding information users, errors evaluated by the reasonable method can reflect typical characteristics of error to same extent. So far, there have not a satisfactory standard radiosonde developed as a reference, relative system error and random error are obtained only through direct intercomparison simultaneously. The random error, it is not determined by dual-launching the same type of radiosondes because of the heavy workload. It is mainly used the indirect estimation method, that is the random error of the specify instrument used as a reference, and then the random error of unknown radiosonde is isolated from the variance between reference and unknown radiosondes. But whether the indirect calculation method of random error is suitable for the second level sounding data or not, the further discussion should be adopted. An overview of the random error is explained including the definition and determination method. And then two datasets are used to analyze the effect on the random error by different degree of data smoothing. One is the data of domestic GPS radiosondes comparison experiments in June 2007 and June-July 2008, the other dataset is the 8th WMO radiosonde comparison at Yangjiang China in 2010. The intercomparison analysis shows that the indirect calculation method of random error could not fully be applicable to the second level sounding data, especially for the estimation of random error of wind, temperature in stratospheric and relative humidity in tropospheric. The second level sounding data can detect the more detail caused by the swing of rising balloon, the raw data should be smoothed to reduce the impact of the above. If smoothing degrees of the original data compared are consistent, the indirect calculation method of random errors could be used suitably. The deviation is small, conversely, it might be problematical, which will produce large bias if it exists the difference in smoothing degree of the original data. In the scheme of direct intercomparision, in order to obtain the relative system error and random error of the different types of radiosonde systems, it is best to hang more than one of the same types of radiosonde in the same balloon to contrast synchronously, which can reduce the influence on evaluating the unknown radiosonde random error because of the own error of reference instrument. The more radiosondes of the same type are used, the more valid data could be obtained, the more accurate evaluation of random errors could be obtained.
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图 1 不同厂家探空仪获取的风速相对系统误差及标准差
(a) 中国阳江国际探空系统比对试验不同国家探空仪风速相对系统误差及标准差 (以法国MODEM为参考探空仪)，(b) 国内探空比对试验北京站Vaisala RS92型探空仪直接和间接计算的风速标准差
Fig. 1 Standard deviation statistics of different types of radiosondes
(a) systematic bias and standard deviations of wind speed differences relative to MODEM in 8th WMO Radiosonde Comparison at Yangjiang China, (b) standard deviation of upper-air wind speed of Vaisala RS92 GPS radiosondes in radiosonde comparison in Beijing China
图 2 3个同型号国产GPS探空仪经过30点滑动平均处理的高空风速廓线以及各高度层标准差
(a) W-E, S-N分量风速廓线随时间分布, (b) 按2 km间隔统计的风速标准差
Fig. 2 Upper-air wind speed profile and standard deviation of three same type of GPS radiosondes by 30 points data smoothing
(a) W-E and S-N components of wind profile with time, (b) standard deviation of W-E and S-N components of wind by 2 km interval
图 3 3个同型号国产GPS探空仪经过15点和30点平滑处理后各高度层风速标准差
Fig. 3 Standard deviation of upper-air wind speed of three same types of GPS radiosondes by different data smoothing methods
图 4 不同的平滑程度下Vaisala RS92型GPS探空仪各高度层温度、相对湿度标准差
Fig. 4 Standard deviation of temperature and relative humidity of Vaisala RS92 GPS radiosondes by using different degree data smoothing methods
图 5 3个Vaisala RS92型探空仪经过15点和30点平滑后各高度层温度、相对湿度标准差
Fig. 5 Comparison of standard deviation of temperature and relative humidity of Vaisala RS92 GPS radiosondes by using different data smoothing
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