强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

郑永光; 周康辉; 盛杰; 林隐静; 田付友; 唐文苑; 蓝渝; 朱文剑

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20150601

强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601

国家气象中心，北京 100081

资助项目:

公益性行业 (气象) 科研专项 GYHY201406002

国家自然科学基金项目 41375051

国家重点基础研究发展计划 2013CB430106

详细信息

通信作者:
郑永光, email: zhengyg@cma.gov.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-08-11
- 修回日期: 2015-09-06
- 刊出日期: 2015-11-30

Advances in Techniques of Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather

National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 强对流天气预报业务包括监测、分析、预报、预警和检验等方面。对流初生识别、对流系统强度识别和对流天气类型识别等监测技术取得新进展，综合多源资料的监测技术已应用于中国气象局中央气象台业务。对流系统的触发、发展和维持机制等获得了新认识，我国不同类型强对流天气及其环境条件统计气候特征、分析规范及相应业务产品等为业务预报提供了必要基础和技术支撑。光流法、多尺度追踪技术以及应用模糊逻辑方法的临近预报技术等有明显进展，融合短时预报技术得到广泛应用，对流可分辨高分辨率数值 (集合) 预报及其后处理产品预报试验取得了显著成效，基于数值 (集合) 预报应用模糊逻辑方法的分类强对流天气短期预报技术为业务预报提供了技术支撑。强对流天气综合监测和多尺度自适应临近预报技术、多尺度分析技术以及融合短时预报技术、发展并应用模糊逻辑等方法的、基于高分辨率数值 (集合) 模式的区分不同强度等级和极端性的分类强对流天气精细化 (概率) 预报技术等是未来发展的主要方向。
- 强对流;
- 监测;
- 高分辨率数值预报;
- 概率
Abstract: Significant progresses are made in monitoring, analyses, forecasting and warning techniques of severe convective weather. Techniques of thunderstorm-intensity determination using lightning jump algorithm, convection initiation identification based on geostationary satellite data, convective weather identification based on dual polarization Doppler weather radar data are developed, comprehensively monitoring techniques of convective weather and systems based on multi-source data are applied in Central Meteorological Office of China. Mesovortices within bow echo systems closely related to damaging winds, trigger, developing and maintaining mechanisms of convective systems are better understood; statistical climatological characteristics of different types of severe convective weather and their environmental conditions, the mesoscale weather analysis specification and corresponding operational website products are providing necessary foundations and technical supports for operational forecasting of severe convective weather in China. Optical flow method, multi-scale tracking technique, and comprehensive nowcasting techniques using fuzzy logic method based on climatology, topography, and multi-source data are advanced; weighted-average method and ARMOR (Adjustment of Rain from Models with Radar data) blending short-term forecasting techniques are widely applied; convection-allowing high resolution NWP (ensemble) forecasts and their post-processing products are getting tested in forecasting testbed; short-range forecasting techniques of different types of severe convective weather using fuzzy logic method based on NWP (ensemble) forecasts are providing supports for the operational forecasting. Comprehensively monitoring and multi-scale self-adaptive nowcasting techniques based on multi-source data, improved techniques of convective weather analyses, development of multi-scale analysis technique and combination technique between weighted-average and ARMOR blending short-term forecasting, and improved techniques of (probabilistic) forecasting different types of convective weather with different intensities or extreme using fuzzy logic method based on convection-allowing NWP forecasts should mainly be developed for convective weather forecasting and warning in the future.
- severe convective weather;
- monitoring;
- convection-allowing NWP;
- probability

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强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601

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Advances in Techniques of Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather

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强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601

通信作者: 郑永光, email: zhengyg@cma.gov.cn

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Advances in Techniques of Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather

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郑永光, email: zhengyg@cma.gov.cn