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The Experiment of Hybrid Ensemble Forecast Approach in Short-range Forecast for South China Rainstorm
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摘要: -WRF多模式集合3组试验，对比分析混合集合预报法与传统方法的降水预报效果。结果表明：ARPS模式集合改善了广东省南部局地强降水预报，该方法在中雨、大雨、暴雨量级改进效果显著。WRF模式集合对广东省北部强降水预报优于ARPS模式集合，但空报、漏报率较大，该方法有一定局限性。ARPS-WRF多模式集合在降水落区和量级预报上均优于传统方法。混合集合预报法利用低分辨率 (36 km) 集合预报和高分辨率 (12 km) 控制预报实现了高分辨率 (12 km) 集合预报，改善了降水预报效果，该方法可为业务高分辨率集合预报提供参考。Abstract: Hybrid ensemble forecast approach composed of high-resolution and low-resolution model is tested with multi-initial conditions and multi-physics ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on ARPS and WRF. Three kinds of ensemble prediction experiments (ARPS model ensemble, WRF model ensemble and ARPS-WRF multi-model ensemble) are designed to comparatively analyze the precipitation effect between the hybrid ensemble forecast approach and traditional ensemble forecast approach based on the heavy rainfall event occurred in Southern China on 8 May 2013. ARPS model ensemble improves local precipitation simulation over southern part of Guangdong Province. The center intensity of southern ensemble mean reaches 150 mm, close to the observation, but its location shifts northeast a little. The distribution of ensemble spread is similar to that of ensemble mean. The probabilistic forecast area of the approach is close to the observation in terms of the torrential rain and downpour forecast. The Threat Score (TS) show that the greatest improvements for order of magnitude precipitation are obtained by the hybrid ensemble approach. The Brier Score (BS) also shows that the improvement on moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain is obvious, but the improvement on downpour and excessive storm is limited for the approach. WRF model ensemble has a better performance on precipitation simulation over northern part of Guangdong Province, but the hybrid approach is limited because of the large frequency of false alarms and misses. ARPS-WRF multi-models obviously improve precipitation simulation which has a better performance than those of traditional ensemble forecast approach on precipitation area and intensity. The center intensity of southern precipitation reaches 70 mm, less than the observation and it is caused by the weaker WRF members forecast. The distribution of ensemble spread is similar to that of ensemble mean. The probabilistic forecast of torrential rain and downpour in southern area is best up to 40%. The TS shows that the greatest improvements for order of magnitude precipitation are obtained by the hybrid ensemble approach, especially for heavy rain, torrential rain and downpour. The BS also shows that the improvement on moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain is obvious. ARPS-WRF multi-models have better performance than ARPS model on the forecast of downpour and excessive storm. Therefore, the hybrid ensemble forecast approach achieves high-resolution ensemble forecast system and improves the precipitation simulation combining low-resolution ensemble run with single high-resolution control model run. Meanwhile, a reference to high-resolution ensemble forecast system is provided for operational weather prediction centers.
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图 1 2013年5月8日08:00—20:00降水量
Fig. 1 Observed precipitation from 0800 BT to 2000 BT on 8 May 2013
图 2 ARPS 3种方案12 h累积降水预报集合平均和离散度
Fig. 2 12 h accumulative precipitation ensemble mean and spread of 3 schemes in ARPS
图 3 ARPS 3种方案12 h降水概率预报大雨
Fig. 3 12 h precipitation probabilistic forecast of 3 schemes in ARPS
图 4 ARPS 3种方案12 h累积降水预报TS评分和BS评分
Fig. 4 Threat Score and Brier Score of 12 h accumulative precipitation for 3 schemes in ARPS
图 5 WRF 3种方案12 h累积降水预报集合平均和离散度
Fig. 5 12 h accumulative precipition ensemble mean and spread of 3 schemes in WRF
图 6 WRF 3种方案12 h累积降水TS评分和BS评分
Fig. 6 Threat Score and Brier Score of 12 h accumulative precipitation for 3 schemes in WRF
图 7 ARPS-WRF 3种方案12 h累积降水预报集合平均和离散度
Fig. 7 12 h accumulative precipitation ensemble mean and spread of 3 schemes in ARPS-WRF
图 8 ARPS-WRF 3种方案12 h降水概率预报
Fig. 8 12 h precipitation probabilistic forecast of 3 schemes in ARPS-WRF
图 9 ARPS-WRF3种方案12 h累积降水预报TS评分和BS评分
Fig. 9 Threat Score and Brier Score of 12 h accumulative precipitation for 3 schemes in ARPS-WRF
表 1 系统集合成员的构成
Table 1 The formation of ensemble members of the system
成员 微物理方案 积云对流方案 边界层方案 ARPS_ctl LIN KF PBL specified ARPS_n1 WARMRA Kuo+Kessler PBL diagnosed ARPS_p1 WARMRA KF PBL diagnosed ARPS_n2 NEMICE KF PBL specified ARPS_p2 LIN New KF PBL diagnosed ARPS_n3 NEMICE Kuo+Kessler PBL diagnosed ARPS_p3 WARMRA New KF PBL specified WRF_ctl LIN BMJ MYJ WRF_n1 LIN New KF MYJ WRF_p1 Thompson BMJ YSU WRF_n2 WSM6 BMJ YSU WRF_p2 WSM5 New KF MYJ WRF_n3 Ferrier New KF YSU WRF_p3 WSM5 BMJ MYJ 注：n代表负扰动成员，p代表正扰动成员，ctl代表控制预报。 
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