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Yield Prediction of Sunflower Based on Crop Coefficient and Water Production Function
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摘要:
利用河套灌区向日葵2012年田间水分、分期播种试验数据和两个站点的农业气象历史资料，研究基于向日葵作物系数和水分生产函数的产量预测方法。结果表明：向日葵标准作物系数在生育期内的变化规律是前期小、中期大、后期小, 最高值为1.21, 出现在开花期。标准作物系数与出苗后日数和大于0℃积温有很好的二次和三次多项式关系，拟合优度在0.93以上。在分析相对叶面积指数和作物系数关系的基础上，提出标准作物系数的相对叶面积指数订正方法，得出河套灌区向日葵作物系数的动态计算式，为水分生产函数中实际蒸散量的计算提供支撑。建立以Jensen模型为基础的向日葵水分生产函数，得到对水分亏缺的敏感顺序从高到低是开花期、花序形成期、成熟期、苗期。综合应用向日葵作物系数方程和水分生产函数模型计算分期播种产量，与实际产量分别相差4.4%和4.1%，初步证明该文提出的方法对产量预测较为理想，在该地区具有很好的适用性。
Abstract:Crop coefficient and water production function are important parameters for water saving irrigation. Through making use of data from the stage sowing test at Bayannaoer (40°45′N, 107°25′E, elevation 1039.3 m) of Inner Mongolia in 2012 and historical agro-meteorological data from two monitoring stations, most of the research is carried out in accordance with yield prediction methods based on crop coefficient and water production function. As far as results are concerned, variations in the standard sunflower crop are small in the early stage, large in the medium stage and small again in the late stage. The peak value (1.21) presents itself in the blossom period. There are strong quadratic and cubic polynomial relationships amongst standard crop coefficients days after germination and positive accumulated temperature values (determination coefficient is 0.93). Through comparison with FAO recommended stage values, standard crop coefficient from the test computing is reasonable. In addition, when calibration methods of standard crop coefficient and relative leaf area index are put forward, the actual evapo-transpiration of water production function can be calculated, and dynamic calculation equations of sunflower crop coefficient in the irrigated districts are obtained. There is a quadratic parabola relationship between sunflower water consumption and yield with a suitable water consumption limit. The suitable water consumption threshold is about 400-460 mm, and the yield is 496.7-500.6 g·m-2. Moreover, when water supply is adequate, the water requirement of sunflowers during the entire growth period is 450 mm with an average frequency of 4.09 mm/d. The regular water requirement pattern indicates that minimum water is required during seeding stage, medium water is required during two pairs of true leaves-inflorescence formation stage and blossom-maturity stage, and maximum water is required during inflorescence formation-blossom stage. Additionally, when Jensen model is put forward and established through comparison with 4 sensitive indexes, the order of water deficit from high to low is blossom period, inflorescence formation period, maturity period and seeding period, which is consistent with the regular water requirement pattern. Through integrated utilization of sunflower crop coefficient equation and water production function model, the stage sowing production and production are obtained (504.36g·m-2 and 493.83 g·m-2, respectively), which show 4.4% and 4.1% deviations with actual production, respectively. There is preliminary evidence that the prediction method of production proposed is relatively reasonable with a great applicability in this region, and can be further applied to pre-assessment of production affected by water deficit in different stages.
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图 2 标准作物系数与大于0℃的积温的关系
Fig. 2 Relationship of standard crop coefficient to accumulated temperature greater than 0℃
图 3 作物系数与相对叶面积指数关系
Fig. 3 Relationship of crop coefficient to relative leaf area index
图 6 Jensen模型计算产量和实际产量比较
Fig. 6 Comparison of Jensen model calculated and actual yields
表 1 河套灌区水分适宜条件下的标准作物系数、叶面积指数的动态模拟方程
Table 1 Dynamic simulating equations of standard crop coefficient and leaf area index in Hetao irrigated area underappropriate conditions of water
参数 模拟方程式 R2 样本量 标准作物系数 Kc=-2E-10Tj3+8E-0.7Tj2-0.0005Tj+0.2638 0.927 26 Kc=-0.0002D2+0.1011D-9.5528 0.949 26 叶面积指数 LAID=-3E-0.9Tj3+2E-0.5Tj2-0.0276Tj+14.236 0.965 24 注：D表示日序，150 < D < 270；Tj表示大于0℃积温，850℃ < Tj < 3600℃；LAID为水分适宜条件下期望的叶面积指数。 
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表 2 标准作物系数与FAO推荐值的比较
Table 2 Compared with FAO recommended values and standard crop coefficient
生育阶段 初期 前期 中期 后期 收获期 全生育期 (始末日序) (148—164) (165—188) (189—243) (244—253) (254—271) (110) FAO推荐值 0.3~0.4 0.7~0.8 1.05~1.2 0.7~0.8 0.35~0.45 0.75~0.85 标准作物系数 0.41 0.80 1.1 0.80 0.41 0.78 计算阈值 0.33~0.49 0.67~0.94 0.97~1.21 0.7~0.85 0.24~0.55 注：初期:播种-出苗；前期:出苗至13，14片叶；中期：13，14片叶至开花后1周；后期：开花后1周至开花后20 d；收获期：开花后20 d至成熟。
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表 3 向日葵各生育阶段需水量
Table 3 Water requirement of sunflower in different growth stages
生育阶段 出苗期-二对真叶期 二对真叶期-花序形成期 花序形成期-开花期 开花期-成熟期 全生育期 间隔时间/d 9 27 20 45 110 需水量/mm 5 95 190 160 450 时段需水量占总需水量比/% 1.11 21.11 42.22 35.56 100 日耗水强度/(mm·d-1) 0.56 3.52 9.50 3.56 4.09
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表 4 河套灌区向日葵水分生产函数模型敏感指标及检验参数 (n=18)
Table 4 Sensitive index and parametric test of sunflower crop water production function in Hetao irrigated area (n=18)
模型 生育期 相关系数 平均相对误差/% 苗期 花序形成期 开花期 成熟期 Jensen 0.001 0.0648 0.1567 0.0391 0.806* 10.78 Minhas -0.0474 0.0587 0.1412 0.2247 0.652* 17.91 Blank 0.0379 0.1882 0.6426 0.2945 0.700* 32.03 Singh 0.1646 0.0577 0.5170 0.4687 0.742* 41.69 注：*表示达到0.01显著性水平。
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表 5 作物系数方程和水分生产函数模型计算及产量预测
Table 5 Calculation of crop coefficient equation and water production function model and yield prediction
播期 参数 出苗期-二对真叶期 二对真叶期-花序形成期 花序形成期-开花期 开花期-成熟期 计算产量/ (g·m-2) 实际产量/ (g·m-2) 05-20 Kc 0.45 0.78 1.08 0.19 Kcx 0.03 0.82 1.67 0.50 ETa 1.48 129.44 157.80 122.93 504.36 527.24 06-04 Kc 0.65 0.90 1.14 0.25 Kcx 0.04 0.70 1.90 0.64 ETa 1.32 98.64 155.72 121.22 493.83 514.07
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