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Summer Precipitation in the Huaihe River Basins and Relevant Climate Indices
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摘要: 基于旋转经验正交函数分解 (REOF) 方法探讨淮河流域1961—2010年夏季降水与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO)、北大西洋涛动 (NAO)、印度洋偶极子 (IOD)、太平洋年代际振荡 (PDO) 之间的关系，并进一步分析各气候因子不同位相单独以及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响。结果表明：淮河流域夏季降水与ENSO，PDO，NAO，IOD等气候因子具有较稳定的相关性，其中，PDO和IOD是影响淮河流域夏季降水的关键因子，且PDO与夏季降水呈显著负相关关系；各气候因子的冷暖位相单独及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响不同，PDO的冷期以及NAO，IOD冷位相使流域北部的夏季降水量呈显著增加趋势，PDO分别联合ENSO，NAO和IOD的冷、暖位相对流域北部地区和淮河上游地区的夏季降水影响显著。Abstract: ENSO having significant impacts on global climate changes. Evident relations are found between ENSO and precipitation anomaly changes across the Huaihe River Basins. Besides, impacts on precipitation changes in the Huaihe River Basins can also be expected from PDO, NAO and other climate indices. These influences and related stability of the influence are investigated, and combined effects of these climate indices on seasonal precipitation changes in the Huaihe River Basins are studied. In this case, objectives of this paper are to investigate influences of ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO on the summer precipitation regimes across the Huaihe River Basins, and related stability of the influence; explore whether ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO are the dominant influencing factors behind occurrences or intensities of precipitation events across the Huaihe River Basins; and understand how climate indices influence seasonal precipitation changes across the Huaihe River Basins, especially from the viewpoint of water vapor transportation. The result may provide valuable information for improving the long-term forecasting of precipitation using its relationship with ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO, and will provide important theoretical basis for water resources management and disaster prevention.Based on rotated empirical orthogonal decomposition method (REOF), the relationship between the summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basins and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is analyzed. Influences of individual climatic factor or combined influences of climate factors on summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basins are discussed.Results indicate that PDO and IOD are the key factors influencing summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basins, where the PDO is in negative significant correlation with summer precipitation. Strong correlation is found between the REOF time coefficients for the summer precipitation anomaly and the climatic factors, and correlations are persistent and steady. Warm and cool periods of ENSO, NAO, IOD, PDO have different impacts on summer precipitation. Cold periods of IOD, NAO and PDO can trigger significantly increasing trend of summer precipitation in the northern Huaihe River Basins. PDO combined with ENSO, NAO and IOD heavily affects summer precipitation and this influence modifies spatial patterns of summer precipitation under influences of individual climate factor. Combined PDO, ENSO, NAO and IOD have evident impacts on summer precipitation, and evident impacts of these climatic factors are also found on precipitation in the northern Huaihe River Basins, also the upper Huaihe River Basins.
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图 2 夏季降水距平序列REOF空间模态分布
Fig. 2 Four leading spatial patterns of REOF for summer precipitation anomalies
图 3 单一气候因子不同冷、暖位相 (时期) 对夏季降水的影响 (单位：%)
(饼图中，灰色区域代表上升的站点，白色区域代表下降的站点; ▲代表显著上升，▼代表显著下降)
Fig. 3 Precipitation anomaly for cold and warm periods of each climatic index in summer (unit:%)
(the gray area in the pie bar denotes the number of stations with increasing, and the white area in the pie bar denotes the number of stations with decreasing; ▲denotes significant increasing, ▼denotes significant decreasing)
图 4 多气候因子联合对夏季降水的影响
(单位：%；▲代表显著上升，▼代表显著下降)
Fig. 4 Impacts combined with different periods of two climate indics on summer precipitation (unit:%)
(▲denotes significant increasing, ▼denotes significant decreasing)
表 1 REOF时间系数和前一年气候因子相关系数
Table 1 Correlation coefficients between the temporal pattern of the REOF and climate indices one year ahead
前一年气候因子 PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 ENSO 0.06 -0.04 -0.02 -0.08 0.11 NAO 0.17 0.11 -0.15 -0.17 0.18 PDO 0.004 -0.08 -0.09 -0.19 -0.17 IOD 0.15 0.23 0.30 -0.04 -0.19 
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表 2 REOF时间系数和当年气候因子相关系数
Table 2 Correlation coefficients between the temporal pattern of the REOF and climate indices in current year
当年气候因子 PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 ENSO -0.06 -0.03 0.03 -0.13 0.05 NAO -0.13 0.01 -0.14 -0.20 -0.02 PDO 0.12 -0.05 -0.41 -0.33 0.10 IOD 0.02 0.03 -0.12 -0.12 -0.04
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表 3 各气候因子不同位相组合的情况
Table 3 Different combinations of climatic indics
情形 气候因子位相 A ENSO冷位相/PDO冷位相—ENSO冷位相/PDO暖位相 B ENSO暖位相/PDO冷位相—ENSO暖位相/PDO暖位相 C NAO冷位相/PDO冷位相—NAO冷位相/PDO暖位相 D NAO暖位相/PDO冷位相—NAO暖位相/PDO暖位相 E IOD冷位相/PDO冷位相—IOD冷位相/PDO暖位相 F IOD暖位相/PDO冷位相—IOD暖位相/PDO暖位相
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