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Effects of Atmospheric Low-frequency Variation on Typical Persistent Heavy Rains During Pre-flood Season in Fujian
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摘要: 在分析福建前汛期典型持续性暴雨过程大气低频变化特征基础上，建立了福建前汛期典型持续性暴雨大气低频扰动物理概念模型：典型持续性暴雨发生期间，对流层高层朝鲜半岛至渤海湾为低频低压，青藏高原西侧为弱高压，副热带西风急流核位于长江口至东海上空，福建上空为低频辐散区；对流层中层高度场低频分量中高纬度地区若出现贝加尔湖阻塞高压加强型、乌拉尔山及鄂霍次克海双阻塞高压加强型、鄂霍次克海阻塞高压加强型和乌拉尔山阻塞高压加强型4种低频扰动之一，福建上空为低频低值区；对流层低层低频流场福建上空为低频气旋控制，气旋中心位于江南或南海上空，如此高低空低频系统配置将引起异常的低频垂直经向环流，从而导致典型持续性暴雨的形成。Abstract: The daily precipitation data of 66 stations in Fujian and NCEP reanalysis data during 1961-2010 are used to analyze the atmospheric low-frequency (LF) variability responsible for 27 typical persistent heavy rain processes (TPHRP) in Fujian during pre-flood season. Using Butterworth band-pass filtering method, low frequency band signals of 30-60 d intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) are extracted from filtered air circulation time series grid data. A physical conceptual model about the atmospheric LF disturbances during TPHRP is suggested as follows.In the upper troposphere, LF between the Korean Peninsula and the Bohai Gulf is low and weak high system dominates in the west of the Tibet Plateau, together with the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) core located between the Yangtze River estuary and the East China Sea, leading to the LF divergence over Fujian. These low-frequency systems are relative to the Northeast cold vortex, South Asia high and the subtropical westerly jet core, respectively, which provide high-level divergence dynamic conditions and driving dynamic conditions of vertical circulation for persistent heavy rains.In the middle troposphere, when LF disturbance pattern as double block high enhanced type, the Ural block high enhanced type, the Lake Baikal block high enhanced type, or the Okhotsk Sea block high enhanced type, LF low may maintain over Fujian showing on the weather map as two troughs and one ridge type, two ridges and one trough type, one trough and one ridge type, one ridge and one ridge type, respectively. The cold air from the middle and east influences Fujian, providing continuous cold air for persistent heavy rain processes.In the lower troposphere, there is a LF cyclone over Fujian with its center located in South China Sea (SCS) or south of the Yangtze River. The current of air from subtropical high provide continuous moisture conditions, low level convergence dynamic conditions, instability stratification conditions and maintain low-level vertical circulation dynamic conditions for persistent heavy rain processes.In vapor flux fields, whenever one of the LF disturbance strengthens in the vapor passageways as Somali to the Bay of Bengal, the western flank of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) or the westerly transport, the water vapor flux convergence over Fujian will be enhanced, providing continuous water vapor transport. TPHRPs are finally triggered by the abnormal LF circulation configuration from lower to upper troposphere as above with favorable synoptic systems for heavy persisted rains. Because of the LF system with continuous and periodicity, the physical conceptual model provides scientific basis for the extension of the TPHRP forecast in Fujian during pre-flood season.
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图 1 典型持续性暴雨过程200 hPa 30~60 d低频分量合成图
(a) 高度场 (单位：gpm), (b) 纬向风场 (单位：m·s-1), (c) 辐散场 (单位:10-6 m·s-1)
Fig. 1 Composite of 30-60 d low-frequency fields at 200 hPa for typical persistent heavy rain processes
(a) geopotential height (unit:gpm), (b) zonal wind (unit:m·s-1), (c) divergence (unit:10-6 m·s-1)
图 2 典型持续性暴雨过程500 hPa中高纬度4种低频扰动型合成图 (单位：gpm)
(a) 低频贝阻加强型, (b) 低频双阻加强型, (c) 低频鄂阻加强型, (d) 低频乌阻加强型
Fig. 2 Categorical composites of low-frequency geopotential height field types at 500 hPa for typical persistent heavy rain processes (unit:gpm)
(a) the Lake Baikal block high strengthened type, (b) the double block high strengthened type, (c) the Okhotsk Sea block high strengthened type, (d) the Ural block high strengthened type
图 3 典型持续性暴雨过程850 hPa流场和涡度场两种低频扰动型合成图
(a) 江南低频气旋型流场，(b) 江南低频气旋型涡度场，(c) 南海低频气旋型流场，(d) 南海低频气旋型涡度场
Fig. 3 Categorical composites of low-frequency disturbance field types at 850 hPa (shaded for low-frequency vorticity) for typical persistent heavy rain processes
(a) the wind field of the Yangtze River cyclone low-frequency type, (b) the vorticity field of the Yangtze River cyclone low-frequency type, (c) the wind field of cyclone low-frequency type, (d) the vorticity field of South China Sea cyclone low-frequency type
图 4 3条主要低频水汽通道整层水汽通量 (阴影) 及矢量 (单位：g·cm-1·hPa-1·s-1) 和水汽通量散度 (等值线，单位：10-6g·cm-2·hPa-1·s-1) 的低频扰动合成
(a) 索马里—孟加拉湾水汽输送通量和矢量，(b) 副热带高压西南侧水汽输送通量和矢量，(c) 西风带水汽输送通量和矢量，(d) 索马里—孟加拉湾水汽输送通量散度，(e) 副热带高压西南侧水汽输送通量散度，(f) 西风带水汽输送通量散度
Fig. 4 Vertical integrated water vapor flux (the shaded) and vector (unit:g·cm-1·hPa-1·s-1) and water vapor flux divergence (the contour, unit:10-6g·cm-2·hPa-1·s-1)
(a) vapor transport flue and vector of Somali to the Bay of Bengal, (b) vapor transport flux and vector of southwest to subtropical high, (c) vapor transport flux and vector of the westerly, (d) vapor transport flux divergence of Somali to the Bay of Bengal, (e) vapor transport flux divergence of southwest to subtropical high, (f) vapor transport flux divergence of the westerly
图 5 典型持续性暴雨过程115°~120°E平均的垂直经向环流
(阴影区为垂直速度，流线为经向风速和垂直速度二维流线，经向风单位：m/s，垂直速度单位:10-3 Pa/s) (a) 平均垂直经向环流，(b)1998年垂直经向环流，(c)2010年垂直经向环流
Fig. 5 Vertical meridional circulation field along 115°-120°E of typical persistent heavy rain processes
(the shaded is for vertical velocity, the stream is for meridional wind speed and vertical velocity dimensional, unit of meridional wind:m/s, unit of vertical speed:10-3 Pa/s) (a) mean vertical meridional circulation, (b) the case in 1998, (c) the case in 2010
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