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Characteristics of the Forecast Jumpiness Based on TIGGE Data
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摘要: 利用2011年3月—2013年2月TIGGE资料中ECMWF，NCEP及CMA 3个中心的500 hPa位势高度场、850 hPa温度场和海平面气压场的集合预报资料，采用Jumpiness指数同时结合单点跳跃、异号两点跳跃等预报跳跃相关概念，研究了集合控制预报和集合平均预报的预报跳跃特征问题，并进行对比分析。结果表明:平均而言，短时效预报之间的跳跃性低于长时效预报之间的跳跃性。集合平均预报的结果之间较其相应的控制预报具有更好的一致性。在预报跳跃的频率统计方面，集合平均预报结果总体上明显低于集合控制预报，两者在长时效的预报跳跃情况差别较大。该文研究了预报跳跃对不同区域、时间和变量的敏感性，结果表明：时间平均的预报跳跃性对区域和变量很敏感。不同预报跳跃类型出现的频率及集合控制预报和集合平均预报在预报跳跃性方面的差异对区域、时间和变量的敏感性有限。
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关键词:
- TIGGE资料;
- 预报跳跃性特征;
- Jumpiness指数
Abstract: Based on 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa temperature and the mean sea level pressure forecasts from ECMWF, NCEP and CMA in TIGGE datasets, characteristics of the forecast jumpiness for the control and ensemble-mean forecasts and the comparison of their characteristics conducted using Jumpiness index and other different forecast jumps: The flip, flip-flop, flip-flop-flip and so on. Results indicate that in terms of the period-average forecast jumpiness features, the period-average jumpiness indices increase with the forecast range in agreement with the practical experience that forecasts are usually more consistent at short forecast ranges. And for ensemble prediction system, the ensemble-mean forecast is less jumping than its corresponding control forecast, especially at long forecast ranges, which indicates that the forecast jumpiness could be reduced using the ensemble prediction method. And both for the control forecast and ensemble-mean forecast, the forecast jumpiness of ECMWF is lower. In frequency statistics of the forecast jumpiness, frequencies of the flip, flip-flop and flip-flop-flip are in descending order. For these three types of forecast jumps, the frequency of ensemble-mean forecast is significantly lower than that of the control forecast especially at long forecast ranges. It indicates that the ensemble-mean forecast is less jumping than its corresponding control forecast, which also shows that the forecast jumpiness could be reduced using the ensemble prediction method. The frequency variation of parallel flip, parallel flip-flop and parallel flip-flop-flip indicates that the control forecast and ensemble-mean forecast have large difference at long forecast ranges. And the correlation coefficient of their Jumpiness indices also confirms this conclusion. At last, the sensitivity of the forecast jumpiness to areas, time and parameters are presented. Results show that the period-average forecast jumpiness has a strong sensitivity to the area and parameter. And the sensitivity of the control forecast to the area and parameter is stronger than that of ensemble-mean forecast. The smaller the studied area is, the larger the period-average forecast jumpiness becomes, which indicates that the forecast jumpiness intensity is stronger. As the weather and climate characteristics of the selected areas are not the same, the period-average forecast jumpiness is different. For different variables, the period-average forecast jumpiness is also various. The period-average Jumpiness index of mean sea level pressure is the maximum, the result of 500 hPa geopotential height is the second, and the minimum result is 850 hPa temperature. That is to say, the forecast jumpiness intensity of temperature is lower than geopotential height results. And the frequency of different forecast jumps and the difference of the jumpiness between control forecast and ensemble-mean forecast show little sensitivity to the choice of the area, time and parameter. -
图 3 单点跳跃、异号两点跳跃和异号三点跳跃定义示意图
(虚线表示0.5倍的时间平均跳跃指数，即临界条件)
Fig. 3 Concepts of flip, flip-flop and flip-flop-flip
(dashed line:half the period-average Jumpiness index called critical condition)
图 4 ECMWF，NCEP和CMA集合预报系统500 hPa位势高度场集合控制预报与集合平均预报的时间平均跳跃指数
Fig. 4 Period-average Jumpiness index for control and the ensemble-mean 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts of ECMWF-EPS, NCEP-EPS and CMA-EPS
图 5 ECMWF, NCEP和CMA集合预报系统500 hPa位势高度场集合控制预报与集合平均预报出现单点跳跃 (a)、异号两点跳跃 (b)、异号三点跳跃 (c) 以及平行单点跳跃 (d)、平行异号两点跳跃 (e) 和平行异号三点跳跃 (f) 的频率统计
Fig. 5 Frequency statistics of occurrences of flip (a), flip-flop (b), flip-flop-flip (c), parallel flip (d), parallel flip-flop (e) and parallel flip-flop-flip (f) for control and ensemble-mean 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts of ECMWF-EPS, NCEP-EPS and CMA-EPS
图 6 ECMWF, NCEP和CMA集合预报系统集合控制预报和集合平均预报之间500 hPa位势高度场Jumpiness指数的相关系数
Fig. 6 Correlation of 500 hPa geopotential height Jumpiness index between control and the ensemble-mean forecasts of ECMWF-EPS, NCEP-EPS and CMA-EPS
图 7 ECMWF集合预报系统500 hPa位势高度场集合控制预报与集合平均预报在不同区域的时间平均跳跃指数
Fig. 7 Period-average Jumpiness index for 500 hPa geopotential height control and ensemble-mean forecasts of ECMWF-EPS for four different areas
图 8 ECMWF集合预报系统500 hPa位势高度场集合控制预报与集合平均预报出现单点跳跃现象的频率的季节变化特征
(a) 集合控制预报结果，(b) 集合平均预报结果
Fig. 8 Frequency statistics of the fip occurrence for ECMWF-EPS control and ensemble-mean forecasts for four seasons at 500 hPa geopotential height
(a) the control forecasts, (b) the ensemble-mean forecasts
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