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Meteorological Disaster Index and Risk Assessment of Frost Injury During Apple Florescence
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摘要: 花期冻害是影响苹果产量和品质形成的主要气象灾害之一。基于苹果花期冻害发生的地理分布、气象背景数据和已有研究成果，利用最大熵模型和ArcGIS空间分析工具，筛选出影响苹果花期冻害发生分布的暴露性指标和主要致灾气象因子，利用全国1981—2013年2084个气象站资料，评估了苹果主产区花期冻害的风险。结果显示：苹果花期冻害发生的暴露性指标是花前日最高气温大于等于6℃有效积温为420~550℃·d，主要致灾气象因子和高风险阈值按照贡献率大小依次为冻害过程的最大日较差 (大于等于22℃)、极端最低气温 (小于等于-2℃)、降水量 (小于等于5 mm) 和日最低气温小于等于0℃积温 (小于等于-14℃·d)。花期冻害风险较高的区域位于北疆、黄土高原西部和北部及川西高原区，而环渤海湾和黄河故道产区风险相对较低。不同风险区的分布与各地苹果物候期差异和春季冷空气的活动路径有关。Abstract: Frost injury during the florescence is one of the most serious meteorological disasters affecting the production and quality of apple. In temperate regions, effects of frost damage on deciduous fruit trees during florescence exceed effects of winter freeze. The risk of frost injury in the apple florescence depends on the developmental stage and disaster-causing factors. The minimum temperatures or frost days are usually adopted as disaster-causing factors, but single index cannot reflect combined effects of meteorological factors on frost injury.The disaster exposure index and the dominant disaster-causing factors are determined based on the geographical distribution of frost injury during the apple florescence, meteorological data, together with the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS spatial analysis technique. An assessment is carried out on the main cultivated area using meteorological data from 2084 meteorological stations during 1981-2013. Results indicate that the frost injury occurs when the effective accumulated temperature (daily maximum air temperature is no less than 6℃) reaches 420-550℃·d before flower-beginning. The dominant disaster-causing factors and their thresholds to the frost injury in influence descending order are listed as follows: The maximum diurnal range of temperature (no less than 22℃), the extreme minimum temperature (no more than-2℃), the precipitation (no more than 5 mm) and the accumulated daily minimum temperature below 0℃ (no more than-14℃·d) in processes of strong cold air. The higher risk areas include northern Xinjiang, western and northern Loess Plateau, especially the plateau area of the western Sichuan, while risks in areas around the Bohai Bay and the Old Course of the Yellow River are lower. The distribution of risk areas are related with the apple phenophase and routes of cold air. The disaster affected degree also varies according to different cultivars.
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图 1 研究区、气象站及苹果花期冻害灾害点分布
Fig. 1 The study area and geographical distribution of weather stations and frost injury in the apple florescence
图 2 利用暴露性风险指标模拟的研究区域苹果始花期验证
Fig. 2 Validity of the first flowering date of apple in the study area simulated by the exposure risk indices
图 3 我国苹果主产区花期冻害的风险分布
Fig. 3 Risk distribution of frost injury in the apple florescence in China
表 1 影响苹果花期冻害分布的潜在气候因子
Table 1 Potential climate factors affecting the distribution of frost injury in the apple florescence
因子分类 表征意义 潜在气候因子 引用文献 暴露性风险
影响因子Ⅰ表征果树生
长发育阶段花前日平均气温大于等于3℃的有效积温 (∑Ta3/(℃·d)) [27-28, 31] 花前日平均气温大于等于5℃的有效积温 (∑Ta5/(℃·d)) [27-28, 30] 花前日最高气温大于等于6℃有效积温 (∑Tm/(℃·d)) [27, 29-30] 致灾风险
影响因子Ⅰ降温过程空
气温度变化日平均气温 (T/℃) [11, 13] 极端最低气温 (Tem/℃) [1-3, 5-6, 8-10, 32, 33] 最大日较差 (Tmr/℃) [8, 11, 32, 34, 35] 日最低气温小于等于0℃积温 (∑T0/(℃·d)) [13, 16, 35-36] Ⅱ降温过程地
表温度变化日平均最低地表温度 (Lst/℃) [15, 32] 极端最低地表温度 (Lstm/℃) [15, 32] 日最低地温小于等于0℃积温 (∑Lst0/(℃·d)) [14] Ⅲ其他环境因子 过程累积降水量 (R/mm) [12-13, 37] 过程平均空气相对湿度 (f/%) [12-13, 37] 过程平均风速 (V/(m·s-1)) [1, 13] 
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表 2 影响苹果花期冻害分布的主要影响因子贡献率和置换重要性
Table 2 Percent contribution and permutation importance of dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of frost injury in the apple florescence
因子分类 主导因子 贡献率/% 累积贡献率/% 置换重要性/% 致灾气象因子 过程最大日较差 (Tmr/℃) 28.7 28.7 9.5 过程极端最低气温 (Tem/℃) 26.2 54.9 38.3 过程累积降水量 (R/mm) 20.8 75.7 10.3 日最低气温小于等于0℃积温 (∑T0/(℃·d)) 12.1 87.8 1.1 暴露风险因子 花前日最高气温大于等于6℃有效积温 (∑Tm/(℃·d)) 12.1 99.9 40.7
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表 3 按照风险概率等级划分的致灾气象因子阈值范围
Table 3 Threshold range of meteorological factors in accordance with the risk probability classification of frost injury in the apple florescence
致灾因子 高风险 中等风险 低风险 过程最大日较差 (Tmr/℃) Tmr≥22 18≤Tmr＜22 15≤Tmr＜18 过程极端最低气温 (Tem/℃) Tem≤-2 -2＜Tem≤1 1＜Tem≤4 过程累积降水量 (R/mm) R≤5 5＜R≤20 20＜R≤50 日最低气温小于等于0℃积温 (∑T0/(℃·d)) ∑T≤-14 -14＜∑T≤-8 -8＜∑T≤-3
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表 4 模拟结果与苹果花期冻害实际发生的对比检验
Table 4 Comparative analysis of simulated and actual frost injury in the apple florescence
主产区 省份 验证点 地理位置 海拔/m 模拟结果一致率/% 黄土高原产区 陕西 洛川 35°49′N，109°30′E 1159.8 85 山西 临猗 35°08′N，110°47′E 387.9 90 甘肃 静宁 35°31′N，105°43′E 1656.4 80 宁夏 吴忠 37°59′N，106°11′E 1128.8 85 环渤海湾产区 山东 栖霞 37°18′N，120°50′E 171.5 75 辽宁 普兰店 39°24′N，121°58′E 31.5 75 河北 深州 38°00′N，115°33′E 26.1 85 黄河故道产区 河南 灵宝 34°32′N，110°53′E 390.4 75 江苏 丰县 34°41′N，116°35′E 40.1 80 西南高地产区 云南 昭阳 27°21′N，103°43′E 1949.5 75 四川 小金 31°00′N，102°21′E 2369.2 60 四川 盐源 27°26′N，101°31′E 2545.0 65 新疆产区 新疆 阿克苏 41°10′N，80°14′E 1103.8 75 新疆 伊宁 43°57′N，81°20′E 662.5 80
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