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The Relationship Between the Autumn Drought in the Eastern Part of Northwest China and the Summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation
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摘要: 利用1961—2010年NCEP/NCAR的月平均和逐日再分析资料、中国区域589个站月降水量和气温月平均资料，研究夏季亚洲—太平洋涛动 (APO) 异常与我国西北地区东部秋季干湿变化的关系。结果表明:夏季亚洲—太平洋涛动指数 (APOI) 的异常变化与我国西北地区东部干湿指数 (DROI) 呈显著正相关。夏季APOI正异常年对应的秋季中高纬度地区500 hPa高度场乌拉尔山以西高压脊加强、巴尔喀什湖至贝加尔湖之间的低压槽加深、鄂霍次克海东部高压脊加强；东亚西风急流轴偏北；经阿拉伯海、印度半岛—孟加拉湾的西风水汽以及北太平洋反气旋底部的偏东水汽输送均为加强趋势，并结合中纬度西风水汽输送使研究区秋季偏湿，反之亦然。进一步研究表明，夏季APO为正异常时，秋季西北地区东部上升运动加强、暖湿气流加强 (均在第54—56候最为明显)。
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关键词:
- 夏季亚洲—太平洋涛动;
- 西北地区东部;
- 干湿指数
Abstract: The eastern of Northwest China is recognized universally as a sensitive area of climate change and ecologically fragile region. Being adjacent to the Tibetan Plateau, effects of the Plateau terrain on atmospheric heating leads to thermal difference between the atmosphere above the Tibet Plateau and this area. The Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) is defined as a zonal seesaw of the tropospheric temperature in the mid latitudes of the Asian-Pacific region. When the troposphere is cooling in mid-latitudes of the Asian continent, it is warming in mid-latitudes of the central and eastern North Pacific, and vice versa. In essence, the Tibetan Plateau thermal effects arouse likeness APO large scale teleconnection pattern. Used as an index of the thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, it provides a new way to explore the Asian atmospheric circulations and climate change.Based the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the monthly precipitation and temperature from 589 stations of China during 1961-2010, the relationship between the summer APO and the following autumn drought in China is examined statistically. Results show there are a significantly positive correlation between the APO index and the following autumn in the eastern part of Northwest China. A positive phase of summer APO, characterized by two high ridges strengthened located near the Ural Mountains and east of the Okhotsk Sea, respectively, and a trough deepened between the Balkhash and the Baykal. A positive phase of summer APO associated with east Asian subtropical westerly jet stream turns to be weakened and northward. These changes provide favoring conditions for enhanced wet in the eastern part of Northwest China. The situation is reversed in the negative phase of summer APO, leading to drought in this region. The east wind strengthening at the bottom of the northeastern Pacific anticyclone and the moisture transport that roots in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal strengthening has very important contribution to the variability of the atmospheric water vapor resource in the eastern part of Northwest China. Moreover, the positive phase of summer APO is followed by increased ascending vertical velocity in autumn especially during the 54th-56th pentad.Specifically, the anomalous signal of the summer APO can persist until the following autumn, accompanying with continuous high correlations between the summer APO index and that in the following autumn. Therefore, the summer APO variation provides a potential valuable signal for predicting the autumn wet/drought in the eastern part of Northwest China. -
图 1 1961—2010年夏季北半球200~500 hPa垂直平均温度扰动T′标准化距平EOF展开第1模态
(实线框代表中纬度亚洲大陆, 虚线框代表北太平洋区域)
Fig. 1 EOF1 mode of the normalized summer upper-tropospheric T′ over the Northern Hemisphere from 1961 to 2010
(the solid box denotes the mid-latitude region of Asia, the dashed box denotes the north Pacific area)
图 2 夏季APOI与中国区域秋季DROI的相关
(阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between the summer APO index and the normalized autumn drought index in China
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 3 夏季APOI与西北地区东部秋季DROI的标准化时间序列
Fig. 3 Time series of the summer APO index and autumn drought index in the eastern part of Northwest China
图 4 夏季北半球200~500 hPa垂直平均温度扰动T′与秋季我国干湿指数的SVD分解第1模态左异类相关图
(阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 4 The left heterogeneous correlation pattern of singular value decomposition (SVD) mode for the normalized summer upper-tropospheric T′ and normalized autumn drought index over China
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 5 夏季北半球200~500 hPa垂直平均温度扰动T′与秋季我国部分地区干湿指数的SVD分解第1模态右异类相关图
(阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 5 The right heterogeneous correlation pattern of singular value decomposition (SVD) mode for the normalized summer upper-tropospheric T′ and autumn normalized drought index over China
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 6 夏季APOI典型正、负异常年秋季500 hPa位势高度合成差值场
(单位: dagpm, 阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 6 Composite difference of 500 hPa autumn geopotential height between the positive summer APO index and the negative summer APO index years
(unit:dagpm, the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 9 夏季APOI典型正、负异常年秋季垂直环流和候垂直速度合成差值
(经向风单位：m·s-1, 垂直速度单位:10-2 Pa·s-1；灰色阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平) (a) 经向垂直环流沿105°E合成差值剖面，(b)35°~37.5°N, 102.5°~110°E平均垂直速度合成差值时间-高度剖面
Fig. 9 Composite difference of the autumn mean vertical circulation and the pentad mean vertical velocity between the positive summer APO index and the negative summer APO index years
(unit of meridional wind:m·s-1, unit of vertical velocity:10-2 Pa·s-1, the gray denotes passing the test of 0.05 level) (a) cross section of composite difference of the autumn mean vertical circulation along 105°E, (b) cross section of composite difference of the pentad regional mean vertical velocity over 35°-37.5°N, 102.5°-110°E
图 10 夏季APOI典型正、负异常年秋季θse和候θse合成差值 (单位：K)
(灰色阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平) (a) 秋季θse合成差值沿105°E经向垂直剖面，(b)35°~37.5°N, 102.5°~110°E平均候θse合成差值时间-高度剖面
Fig. 10 Composite difference of autumn pseudo-equivalent potential temperature (θse) and pentad θse between the positive summer APO index and negative summer APO index years (unit:K)
(the gray shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 significant level) (a) cross section of composite difference of autumn θse along 105°E, (b) cross section of composite difference of pentad regional θse over 35°-37.5°N, 102.5°-110°E
图 11 1961—2010年秋季北半球200~500 hPa平均T′标准化EOF展开第1模态
Fig. 11 EOF1 mode of the normalized autumn upper-tropospheric T′ over the Northern Hemisphere from 1961 to 2010
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